Eric welcomes Franklin C. Miller, a Principal at the Scowcroft Group and long time public servant at the Department of State, Defense and the White House with deep expertise on nuclear strategy, escalation dynamics and deterrence. They discuss the loss of intellectual capital in the nuclear strategy arena after the end of the Cold War, the numerous panels and reports that have testified to that loss, the nature of Putin and other Russian officials nuclear threats in Ukraine war context, traditional Russian attitudes towards and compliance with arms control agreements, steps that NATO can take to enhance its deterrent posture in the face of Russian nuclear sabre rattling, the challenges of deterring both Russia and China (the so-called 3 body problem) as nuclear peers, and a precis of the just released (Oct. 12) report of the congressionally mandated Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States. America's Strategic Posture Commission Report: https://www.ida.org/-/media/feature/publications/A/Am/Americas%20Strategic%20Posture/Strategic-Posture-Commission-Report.pdf https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2023/09/29/the-urgent-imperative-to-maintain-natos-nuclear-deterrence/index.html https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Edelman-Miller%20Opening%20Statement%20SASC%20Hearing%20Sept.%2020%2020225.pdf https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/us-nuclear-arsenal-can-deter-both-china-and-russia Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot joins Eric from his walking tour in the Cotswolds to discuss the horrifying Hamas terrorist attack on Israel on October 7. They discuss the intelligence and policy failures that allowed Israeli officials to be taken by surprise, the introspection and self-criticism that Israelis had applied in the past when these kinds of things have taken place (the Agranat Commission after the 1973 war and the Winograd Commission after the 2006 Lebanon War). They commend Biden’s speech and the White House spokesperson’s denunciation of “the Squad’s” equivocations about Hamas violence. Eliot previews his forthcoming Atlantic article on civilization vs. barbarism and they speculate on how Israel will proceed and whether we are facing a larger regional war. https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-intelligence-official-says-israel-ignored-repeated-warnings-of-something-big https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-was-duped-hamas-planned-devastating-assault-2023-10-08/ https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_briefs/RB9900/RB9975/RAND_RB9975.pdf Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome Leland Miller, a non-resident senior fellow at the Asia Security Initiative of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center on Strategy and Security and co-founder & CEO of China Beige Book International. Lee explains how China Beige Book acquires data on the PRC economy as well as the pitfalls of using official Chinese government data. They discuss both the short and longer run prospects for China’s economy, the specific dysfunctions of one man rule of managing a large economy, the question of whether or not we have seen “peak China” and if that will make the PRC more or less aggressive vis a vis Taiwan. They consider whether an invasion or blockade of the island is more likely and why any of this should matter to the broader American public. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot take a break from the depressing flow of international news and talk about books. They discuss their favorite bookstores, favorite historical memoirs, books that influenced them, cherished but unread books, greatest works of history, what they are reading now and what is sitting in their night side table waiting to be read. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot discuss the growing global disorder starting with the potential for a genocidal campaign of ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh), the degree to which events in the Caucasus and Central Asia are related to Russia's involvement in Ukraine, the Iranian angle in the Caucasus and the recent release of unjustly detained Americans by Iran (and whether or not ransom was involved), the Biden Administration's apparent interest in a sweeping diplomatic deal that would bring normalization between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Israel but would require a mutual security treaty with formal U.S. security guarantees for the KSA, the situation in the Western Hemisphere (including the possible killing of an Sikh separatist in Canada which PM Trudeau has alleged was carried out by the government of India) assassinations in Ecuador, drug and immigration issues and American political dysfunction in the face of all of this. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot returns with a debrief from his trip to Taiwan and Japan. He and Eric discuss the coming Presidential election in Taiwan, the disingenuous nature of much of our discourse about the Taiwan issue that results from our "One China" policy, the reason it is wrong to think of China as a "pacing threat," the dangers of a blockade rather than an invasion of Taiwan, the things that Taiwan and the US need to do in order to deter China, and how Eliot and Eric grade the Biden team's approach to China overall. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot's road trip continues but Eric welcomes syndicated columnist, Bulwark Policy Editor, and host of the Beg to Differ Podcast Mona Charen. They discuss Mona's 2003 book Useful Idiots describing the left's Cold War and post-Cold War passion for anti-anti Communism and indulging in apologetics for Communist regimes including the Soviet Union, the PRC, Cuba, and others in search of a utopian socialism that never quite met expectations and ended up excusing some of the world's worst human rights violators. They discuss the honorable tradition of cold war liberal anti-communism embodied by Harry Truman, Hubert Humprey and Henry Jackson and the alt-right's attraction to and apologias for Viktor Orban's Hungary and Vladimir Putin's Russia in pursuit of a critique of contemporary America. They touch on the ongoing Republican debate on foreign policy, the Republican Party's historic tradition of isolationism, the role of Wendell Wilke and Arthur Vandenberg in constructing a Republican internationalism and the prospects for a return to a Reaganaut foreign policy. They talk about the responsibilities of Reagan Republicans to call out the authoritarianism of Trumpism and Trumpists. Finally, Mona gives the speech Joe Biden should give to persuade the American people to continue supporting Ukraine and to give himself a political boost. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

With Eliot on the road Eric welcomes Bulwark Editor at Large Bill Kristol to the show. They discuss the prospects for a Supplemental Appropriation for Ukraine aid in the Congress, the state of public opinion on the war in Ukraine, the impact of the Republican Presidential debate on support for Ukraine, the effort that Bill and Bulwark publisher Sarah Longwell have launched to highlight Republicans for Ukraine, the key role of Senator McConnell and other supporters of traditional conservative internationalism in this effort, the seeming cluelessness of some folks in the Biden Administration about the information dimension of the War in Ukraine and the damaging role that "armchair generals" have played in carping about Ukrainian performance in the current counter-offensive. https://www.wsj.com/articles/let-ukraine-direct-its-own-counteroffensive-russia-war-weapons-military-kyiv-bd360796 https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/ukraine-doesnt-need-armchair-generals https://gopforukraine.com/ Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com

Peter Feaver, Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at Duke University, discusses his book 'Thanks for Your Service' on public confidence in the US military. They touch on causes of public confidence, the politicization of the military, partisanship's impact, and the lack of support for civil-military norms. They also explore the consequences of Republican critiques on military recruitment and the challenges of teaching in the age of CHATGPT.

Eric and Eliot are joined by Isabel Kershner, the New York Times Jerusalem correspondent and author of The Land of Hope and Fear: Israel's Battle for Its Inner Soul (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2023). They discuss the division and polarization in Israeli society and the cleavages between the Ashkenazi and Mizrahi populationns, as well as between secular and Haredi Jews, the emergence of identity politics and populism in Israel and, of course, the current struggle over judicial reform. They consider the judicial crisis in the context of Bibi Netanyahu's political predicament and ruminate on whether Israel's greatest challenges in the future will come from within the country or from the external security environment. https://www.amazon.com/Land-Hope-Fear-Israels-Battle/dp/1101946768 Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices