Eliot and Eric look forward to the holidays and review the last year. They talk about the historical significance of the war in Ukraine, the current situation, and possible outcomes. They discuss whether or not this has been a good year for authoritarians around the world and review the situation in China, the prospects for U.S.-China relations (specifically concerning Taiwan), and the popular uprising and revolutionary situation in Iran. They also thank their production team for a great year of Shield of the Republic. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com. Financial Times’s Report about Iranians’ Harassments of the Clerics (https://www.ft.com/content/3b6c241c-e792-4970-957b-556a1088d9a8) Lawry Freedman’s Substack Post on Security Guarantee for Russia (https://samf.substack.com/p/who-can-guarantee-russian-security?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2) Henry Kissinger’s Peace Plan (https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-push-for-peace/) Fred Kaplan’s Critique of Henry Kissinger (https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/12/henry-kissinger-ukraine-peace-plan-vladimir-putin.html) Supreme Command (https://www.amazon.com/Supreme-Command-Soldiers-Statesmen-Leadership/dp/1400034043) Institute for the Study of War (https://www.understandingwar.org/) Julia Davis’s Twitter (https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) New York Times Report about the War (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html) New York Times Report about U.S.’s Attempt to Save Valery Gerasimov’s Life (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/17/world/europe/russia-war-putin-facts.html) Congressional Commissions on the National Defense Strategy’s Report (https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/2018-11/providing-for-the-common-defense.pdf) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Eric and Eliot welcome William Inboden to discuss his new book, The Peacemaker: Ronald Reagan, the Cold War and the World on the Brink. They discuss the existing historical literature on Reagan's Presidency and foreign policy, this new book's contribution to the literature, the complexity of the world that Reagan and his colleagues faced in the 1980's, the role of individuals like Secretaries of State Alexander Haig and George Shultz, as well as National Security Advisor Judge William Clark in advancing the Reagan agenda, and the role of ideas—especially democracy promotion in Reagan's approach to national security as well as his nuclear abolitionism. All three reflect on the nature of the relationship between policy process and policy outcomes. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com. Eric’s tribute to George Shultz (https://thedispatch.com/article/secretary-of-the-american-century/) Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union by Vladislav M. Zubok - (https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Soviet-Vladislav-M-Zubok/dp/0300257309) Reagan at Reykjavik: Forty-Eight Hours That Ended the Cold War by Ken Adel (https://www.amazon.com/Reagan-Reykjavik-Forty-Eight-Hours-Ended/dp/0062310194) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Eric and Eliot welcome Georgetown Professor Emeritus Robert Lieber to discuss his new book, Indispensable Nation. They discuss the nature of the "rules-based" international order, the unique role that U.S. policy plays in sustaining the order, the true disruptive challenges to the order, the nature of political opposition to a robust U.S. foreign policy, political "realism" and its flaws, as well as the increasing challenges for teaching of international relations in the academy. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com. Eliot's “Cut the Baloney Realism” or “Stop Talking About Talking" (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/russia-ukraine-negotations-mark-milley/672198/) Robert Lieber’s Indispensable Nation (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0B5MH82TV/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i0) Robert Lieber’s Retreat And Its Consequences (https://www.amazon.com/Retreat-its-Consequences-American-Foreign/dp/1316506711) Team America: World Police Hans Blix Scene (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TEvacFETvM) Andrey Sushentsov and William Wohlforth’s "The tragedy of US–Russian relations: NATO centrality and the revisionists’ spiral” (https://www.proquest.com/docview/2405756420) John Mearsheimer’s Revealing Interview With The New Yorker (https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/john-mearsheimer-on-putins-ambitions-after-nine-months-of-war) “Yes, It’s Anti-Semitic:” Eliot’s Review of The Israel Lobby by John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt (https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2006/04/05/yes-its-anti-semitic/e7de5f13-60d5-4567-9090-8d24c8237801/) Robert Lieber’s Review of John Mearsheimer’s The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (https://www.psqonline.org/article.cfm?IDArticle=14655) Eric and David Kramer’s “Now Is Not the Time to Negotiate with Putin” (https://www.thebulwark.com/now-is-not-the-time-to-negotiate-with-putin/) Eric and David Kramer’s “Don’t Go Wobbly on Ukraine" (https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/dont-go-wobbly-on-ukraine/) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Eric and Eliot welcome Council on Foreign Relations Fellow Ray Takeyh to discuss the ongoing popular uprising in Iran. They talk about Ray’s article on Iran’s next revolution in the current issue of Commentary, the state of play in the protests, the weaknesses of the regime, comparisons between the 1979 Revolution, the 2009 election protests, and the current situation. Along with political dissident from Iran and SotR producer Shay Khatiri, they also touch on the prospects for regime change, Iran’s role as a weapons supplier to Russia, and what the Biden Administration should do about all this. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com. The Last Shah by Ray Takeyh (https://www.amazon.com/Last-Shah-America-Pahlavi-Relations/dp/030021779X) "Iran’s Hard-Liners Are Starting to Crack" by Ray and Reuel Marc Gerecht (https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-hardliners-khomeini-supreme-leader-protests-larijani-rouhani-morality-police-newspaper-chief-justice-criticism-regime-change-1979-11667410559) "A Second Iranian Revolution" by Ray Takeyh (https://www.commentary.org/articles/ray-takeyh/second-iranian-revolution/) Revolution & Aftermath by Ray and Eric (https://www.amazon.com/Revolution-Aftermath-Forging-Strategy-toward/dp/0817921540) The Next Iranian Revolution” by Ray and Eric (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2020-04-13/next-iranian-revolution) "The Self-Limiting Success of Iran Sanctions” by Ray and Suzanne Maloney (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-self-limiting-success-of-iran-sanctions/) Shay Khatiri’s Substack The Russia-Iran File (https://shaykhatiri.substack.com/) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Eric and Eliot welcome Duke University professor, Peter Feaver, to discuss the state of civil-military relations, the recent statement on the subject by former Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Secretaries of Defense, the damage done to civil-military relations under Trump, and how to repair the damage. They also discuss with Peter, who drafted the 2006 National Security Strategy document issued by the Bush 43 Administration for his views on the Biden National Security Strategy as well as the utility of publicly published strategy documents as a genre. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com. Statement by Former Chairmen of the Join Chiefs of Staff and the Secretaries of Defense (https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/to-support-and-defend-principles-of-civilian-control-and-best-practices-of-civil-military-relations/) The Soldier and the State by Samuel Huntington (https://www.amazon.com/Soldier-State-Politics-Civil-Military-Relations/dp/0674817362) Report by the Commission on the National Defense Strategy (https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/2018-11/providing-for-the-common-defense.pdf) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Eric and Eliot discuss Ukraine’s birthday gift to Vladimir Putin, likely Russian responses, and Eliot’s Atlantic article on Putin’s nuclear threats. Eric eats his words about Liz Truss, and they discuss the relative merits of Nero Wolfe and Daniel Silva for escapist reading. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com. Eliot's Essay (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/putin-nuclear-weapons-threat-us-sanctions-military/671642/) Orlando Figes’s The Story of Russia (https://www.amazon.com/Story-Russia-Orlando-Figes/dp/125079689X) Yulia Latynina’s The Hill Article, “Will Putin use tactical nukes?" (https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3673163-will-putin-use-tactical-nukes/) NUKEMAP (https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/) Stephen Kotkin’s Stalin Biography, Volume 1 (https://www.amazon.com/Stalin-Paradoxes-1878-1928-Stephen-Kotkin/dp/0143127861) Stephen Kotkin’s Stalin Biography, Volume 2 (https://www.amazon.com/Stalin-Waiting-1929-1941-Stephen-Kotkin/dp/1594203806) Rex Stout’s Nero Wolfe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nero_Wolfe) Daniel Silva’s Portrait of an Unknown Woman (https://danielsilvabooks.com/books/portrait-of-an-unknown-woman/) Daniel Silva’s The Cellist (https://danielsilvabooks.com/books/the-cellist/) Daniel Silva’s English Spy (https://danielsilvabooks.com/books/the-english-spy/) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Eric welcomes Eliot back from his sojourn in Poland and Ukraine. They discuss U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss’s early appointments on national security and the review of Britain’s defense policy she has ordered, Biden’s appointment of a new Ambassador to Russia, Eliot’s impressions of Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelensky. They also analyze Vladimir Putin’s speech and mobilization order and discuss Eric’s testimony on nuclear strategy to the Senate Armed Services Committee. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com. Eric and Frank Miller’s testimony written before the Senate (https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Edelman-Miller%20Opening%20Statement%20SASC%20Hearing%20Sept.%2020%2020229.pdf) Their article on the second nuclear era for The Bulwark (https://www.thebulwark.com/is-the-united-states-ready-for-the-next-nuclear-era/) Eliot’s Ukraine article for The Atlantic (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/zelensky-ukraine-west-military-aid-supplies/671485/) Friend of the podcast and former guest Anne Applebaum’s article for The Atlantic (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/putin-speech-delay-ukraine-world-leaders/671495/) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Eric and Eliot discuss what they have been writing lately (links below), the situation in Ukraine, the reasons for why Russia analysts got things wrong while military historians got them right, prospects for a renewed Iran nuclear agreement, and whether or not the the United States can handle two near peer adversaries at the same time. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com. Links: Eliot’s Rough Magic Lecture Series (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lfcEzFWztU) First Makers of Modern Strategy (https://www.amazon.com/Makers-Modern-Strategy-Military-Machiavelli/dp/0691069077) Second Makers of Modern Strategy (https://www.amazon.com/Makers-Modern-Strategy-Machiavelli-Nuclear/dp/0691027641/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2ALK0J51PARKY&keywords=paret+makers+of+modern+strategy&qid=1662946787&s=books&sprefix=paret+makers+of+modern+strategy%2Cstripbooks%2C58&sr=1-1&ufe=app_do%3Aamzn1.fos.006c50ae-5d4c-4777-9bc0-4513d670b6bc) The New Makers of Modern Strategy (Including Eric’s Essay) (https://www.amazon.com/New-Makers-Modern-Strategy-Ancient/dp/0691204381/ref=asc_df_0691204381/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=598250015901&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=16909503583947157478&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9008163&hvtargid=pla-1720916906283&psc=1) Eric’s Testimony on JCPOA (https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Edelman_08-04-15.pdf) Shay Khatiri’s Article on Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program (https://www.thebulwark.com/irans-nuclear-sites-are-vulnerable-and-iran-cant-deter-an-attack-for-now/) Eric, Eliot, and Ray Takeyh’s 2016 Essay on Iran (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2015-12-14/time-get-tough-tehran) Eliot’s “The Return of Statecraft” (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2022-04-19/return-statecraft) Eric’s 2010 CSBA Paper on Primacy (https://csbaonline.org/research/publications/understanding-americas-contested-primacy) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Eric welcomes back Eliot from travels and illness to host John Herbst who was the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine during the Orange Revolution. They discuss Russia’s imperial past and present, the Biden Administration’s 3 billion dollar military assistance package, the course of the war, the assassination of Darya Dugina, and the prospects for diplomacy and grade the Administration’s efforts to manage the Ukraine crisis. Links: Eric’s article co-authored with Daniel Fata, David Kramer, and Stephen Biegun The open letter organized by John Herbst and signed by Eric Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

While Eliot is away on vacation, Eric hosts authors Hal Brands and Michael Beckley whose new book, Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, drops next week. They discuss the concept of "peak China," why conflict with China may be coming sooner than we think, and what lessons for strategic competition with China we can learn from the U.S.-Soviet Cold War experience, and they evaluate the Biden team's approach to China. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices