Shield of the Republic

Eliot and Eric welcome former President of Estonia (and SotR fan) Toomas Ilves to the show. They do a post-mortem on the Vilnius NATO Summit. How did the Biden team perform? What are the prospects for European security with a revanchist Russia? How should NATO approach Ukraine's future association with Alliance? They also discuss the importance of Finland and Sweden in NATO and much more. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Eliot and Eric welcome Michael Vickers, the author of By All Means Available: Memoirs of a Life in Intelligence, Special Operations and Strategy (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2023). They discuss his role in overseeing the CIA's covert assistance program to the Afghan resistance in the war against Soviet occupation in the 1980s, how his experiences as a Green Beret impacted his approach to policy making as a senior official, his academic work at the Office of Net Assessment and CSBA on the revolution in warfare, his return to government in the Bush 43 Administration orchestrating the intensification of the war against Al Qaeda and his role in the bin Laden raid, as well as his thoughts on the endgame in Afghanistan and the lessons of earlier proxy wars for the current fight in Ukraine. They also discuss the delicacy of working with nuclear land mines as a special forces officer. https://www.amazon.com/All-Means-Available-Intelligence-Operations/dp/1101947705/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1689088835&sr=8-1 https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/the-shadow-wars-of-michael-vickers https://csbaonline.org/research/publications/the-revolution-in-war/publication/1 Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Eric and Eliot dig in to Eliot’s recent travels to Poland and Ukraine. They discuss the future of European security relations with Ukraine, Kyiv’s understandable neuralgia about steps short of NATO membership, the meaning and impact of Prigozhin’s rebellion in Russia and on the battlefield, the prospects for Ukraine’s counter-offensive and Ukraine’s ongoing requirements for long range strike, short-range air defenses and cluster munitions. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Eric welcomes back Eliot to host Stephen Sestanovich, the George F. Kennan Senior Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Affairs at the Council on Foreign Relations and Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Professor at the School of International Political Affairs (SIPA) at Columbia University to discuss the short-lived semi-farcical mutiny in Russia led by Evgeniy Prigozhin, the proprietor of the Wagner Group private military company. They discuss the backstory of Wagner and the legal limbo in which it operates, how its business model benefits members of Putin’s kleptocratic elite, whether Putin has emerged weaker or stronger from this affair and the impact that Prigozhin’s actions may have on the stability of Russia and the ongoing war effort on Ukraine. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/three-logics-russias-prigozhin-putsch/674538/ https://www.congress.gov/116/meeting/house/110854/witnesses/HHRG-116-FA14-Wstate-MartenK-20200707.pdf Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With Eliot still on the road, Eric welcomes back Hal Brands, the Henry A. Kissinger Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and introduces Thomas Mahnken, the President and CEO of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) to discuss The New Makers of Modern Strategy, published by Princeton University Press in May. They discuss the backstory of the Makers of Modern Strategy franchise, the purpose and themes of the current volume, arms races and arms control in peacetime competition between nations, the Anglo-German naval arms race before WWI, the US-Soviet arms race in the Cold War, the role of Andrew Marshall as both a strategist and patron of strategy and much more. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With Eliot on the road again Eric hosts Andrew Hoehn, Senior VP and Director of Research at the RAND Corporation, and Thom Shanker (formerly New York Times national security reporter and editor) Director of the Project for Media and National Security at George Washington University. The authors of Age of Danger: Keeping America Safe in an Era of New Superpowers, New Weapons, and New Threats (New York: Hachette Books, 2023) discuss why we are entering an age of greater danger than we have known since the end of the Cold War, the nature of the government's machinery for warning and action in the national security realm, the feasibility and desirability of "whole-of-government" and "whole-of-society" solutions to these looming national security challenges, the legacy of Andrew Marshall (the director of the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment for 40 years), the role of cost-imposing strategies and the use of attritable unmanned aircraft and sensors for deterring the PRC in the Taiwan Strait, the nature of "unobtanium", and the Russian war on Ukraine. https://www.amazon.com/Age-Danger-Keeping-America-Superpowers/dp/030682910X Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Eric and Eliot welcome back friend of the show Kori Schake, the Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute and a veteran of government service at the White House, Defense Department and State Department (where she served as Deputy Director of Policy Planning). They discuss Kori's recent visit to Ukraine, the Biden Administration's management of escalation dynamics in the Russo-Ukrainian war and whether the administration's rhetoric has undercut their professed objectives. They also discuss the appointment of a new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the controversy over the Marine Corps' recent overhaul under Commandant General David Berger, as well as the importance of diversity of service views in senior DoD leadership. They wrap up with a discussion of Kori's essay on "Strategic Excellence" that examines the strategy of Tecumseh and the Shawnee Confederation and which was recently published in The New Makers of Modern Strategy (Princeton, NJ; Princeton University Press, 2023).  https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/05/russia-ukraine-war-escalation-biden-us-risks/674220/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/biden-ukraine-moscow-attack-drone-white-house/674254/?utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_content=true-anthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter https://www.amazon.com/New-Makers-Modern-Strategy-Ancient/dp/0691204381/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2VZ1OC2MKVC0&keywords=the+new+makers+of+modern+strategy&qid=1686158772&sprefix=The+New+Makers%2Caps%2C244&sr=8-1 Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Eric and Eliot share reflections on Memorial Day (and the proper way to observe it), analyze the Turkish election results and Turkey's future course as a regional power, discuss the rise of religious authoritarianism and populism around the globe, and mark Henry Kissinger's one hundredth birthday with a discussion of his complex and complicated legacy as a statesman. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Eric and Eliot mark the latter’s return from his European travels with dark musings about why they have not yet been sanctioned by the Russian government. They also discuss Finland’s adaptation to NATO membership, the differing perspectives of the Nordic and Baltic states, whether or not the neutrality of the “global south” in the Russo-Ukraine war is consequential, and Ukraine’s post-Bakhmut prospects. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/05/ukraine-victory-russia-defeat/674112/ Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Will Inboden, the Executive Director of the William Clements Center for National Security and Associate Professor of Public Affairs at the University of Texas Austin (and editor of the Texas National Security Review) joins Eric to discuss the alleged "October Surprise" in 1980 -- the long bruited charge that Reagan campaign manager Bill Casey colluded with Iranian intermediaries to forestall the release of the U.S. hostages until after the election. The original allegation, made by former Carter NSC staffer Gary Sick, resurfaced this spring after former Texas Lt. Governor Ben Barnes gave an interview to Peter Baker of the New York Times alleging that he and the late John Connally travelled the Middle East in 1980 to pass the word to the Iranians that they would get a better deal from Reagan than they would from Carter. One month later Gary Sick (along with Jonathan Alter, Kai Bird, and Stuart Eizenstat) argued in The New Republic that the matter is "All But Settled." Will and Eric discuss the historical evidence (or lack thereof) that supports the theory and compare it to Nixon's efforts to affect the Vietnam negotiations during the 1968 Presidential Election and the collusion between Russian operatives and the Trump campaign that was revealed in the Mueller and Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Reports. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/18/us/politics/jimmy-carter-october-surprise-iran-hostages.html https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/be-skeptical-of-reagans-october-surprise/ https://thedispatch.com/article/smears-and-myths-the-october-surprise-revisited/ https://newrepublic.com/article/172324/its-settled-reagan-campaign-delayed-release-iranian-hostages https://www.amazon.com/Chasing-Shadows-Chennault-Watergate-Presidency/dp/0813937833 https://www.justice.gov/archives/sco/file/1373816/download https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/report_volume5.pdf Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Email us with your feedback at shieldoftherepublic@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices