The HC Commodities Podcast

Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered an avalanche of economics sanctions by the West. What followed was an undeniably world-changing financial experiment that risked throwing the world into a devastating recession, testing the very limits of economic warfare and Western cohesion. Commodities sit at the heart of this story with profound ramifications for the global sector. But is it succeeding? Our guest is Russia expert and veteran Bloomberg investigative journalist Stephanie Baker who’s new book - Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia - explains in fascinating detail how this furious shadow-war unfolded: its causes, how it is being executed, and its ability to affect Russia and the course of history.   

Over the next two years, the US is set to export some 12bcf/d extra of LNG. What does this mean for the US market? Where will it go? And can supply keep up? Will there be sufficient demand in Europe? And what does this mean for traders - is a global footprint now a must?  Are the gas markets entering a new truly globalized era where US supply sets the price? All that and more is discussed in this special live event recording of The HC Commodities Podcast held on September 19th in Houston. The event was hosted by Six One Commodities and co-sponsored by Bridge Alternatives and Phillips66. Our panelists were Harrison DeStefano, CCO of Six One Commodities, Nathan Arentz, MD, Skylar Capital Management, Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Global Research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy and Graham Fisher, Head of Natural Gas Trading at P66. To hear about future events, including one in NYC on October 16, sign up to the HC Group Newsletter.

Shale Oil & Gas has turned the US into an energy power house over the last 15 years. Will it disappear as quickly as it arrived or will it set to US apart for years to come? Within its short life, it has evolved quickly and our guest Matthew Bernstein now characterizes it as Shale 4.0. What were the previous iterations in participants, economics and output and what does the future hold? Matthew  Bernstein is the Manager of Shale Analytics at Rystad Energy, the independent energy data and analytics firm.  

Charlie Stephens, the President of Amarella Café, is a young powerhouse in the specialty coffee trading scene. He dives into the fascinating journey of coffee from fruit to mug, breaking down the complexities of processing and trading. Charlie highlights how climate change and consumer tastes drive the industry. He also discusses the challenges brought by new EU regulations on coffee imports and shares his inspiring story of launching his own company to create positive impacts for farmers and consumers alike.

Seth Dobrin, CEO of QuantmA1 and former Global Chief AI Officer at IBM, dives into the world of AI in commodities and agriculture. He discusses the lag in AI adoption within these sectors, emphasizing the need for tailored models to enhance supply chains. Seth also explores AI's transformative potential in energy, predictive analytics for trading, and the relationship between innovation and shareholder value. He highlights the importance of responsible AI development and the regulatory landscape that companies must navigate.

Aldo Spanjer, a senior commodity strategist with deep insights into oil market dynamics, dives into the future of oil prices. He reviews key events since COVID and predicts supply-demand shifts leading into 2025. The discussion covers OPEC’s potential decisions, which could spark a new price war, and the implications of geopolitical tensions, particularly with Iran. Aldo also highlights the evolving energy landscape, focusing on jet fuel's crucial role amidst the challenges of alternative fuels and changing demands.

Adriana Waltrick, CEO of SPIC and an expert in the Brazilian power market, discusses the dynamic landscape of Brazil's energy sector. She explains how the country has embraced deregulation and renewable energy, particularly hydroelectric power. The conversation delves into market volatility driven by weather conditions and the shift towards natural gas, including LNG. Adriana also highlights the challenges traders face and the importance of skilled talent in navigating this evolving market landscape.

Explore the potential regime change in Europe's power and gas markets as renewable investments pay off. Discover how this shift may lead to lower energy prices and economic advantages for Europe. The podcast dives into the implications of increasing LNG imports on European and U.S. gas markets. Learn about the evolving trading opportunities amidst market volatility and the strategies for decarbonization that could serve as models for other regions. The discussion also touches upon the future dynamics of carbon markets and their global impacts.

The UN predicts global population will peak sometime in 2080s around 10 billion people. Companies, countries (think global social security schemes) and the commodities sector predicates forecasts on these assumptions. Yet, there is a growing body of evidence that these assumptions are far too optimistic and that not only will global population peak earlier but will subsequently decline much more rapidly. Already much of the West and Asia is in decline and replacement rates of falling at an accelerated pace. Is this a long-range risk no board rooms are talking about? Our guest is analyst, futurist and swine consultant Todd Thurman who has become a global authority on the subject on how it will impact the commodities world.  We also have an upcoming HC Commodities Live Event in Houston on September 19th. To RSVP (for free) please click here:https://www.eventcreate.com/e/hc-commodities-podcast-houston

Global regulators are narrowing their focus on the commodities sector and billions of dollars have been paid in fines. The world has become both more transparent and more risky in the wake of deglobalization, sanctions and the energy transition bringing its increased public scrutiny. The risks are enormous both the companies and individuals. And as such, compliance is an ever more important topic. To discuss compliance, enforcement and best practice is Gerben Schreurs, Partner at the Forensic Risk Alliance, or FRA, an independent forensics firm that conducts investigations, monitorships and compliance reviews, as well as Barry Vitou, Partner at HFW, the global law firm, where he is Head of Investigations, White Collar and Compliance. As always, you can really support the show by leaving us a positive review on the platform you're listening on.