Un Podcast Sobre Bitcoin

Raúl Cano, a prominent Bitcoin commentator known for his technical insights and predictions, joins to reflect on the highs and lows of 2025 and forecasts for 2026. They discuss why 2025 fell short of price expectations and explore the volatility inherent in Bitcoin. The duo examines the surprising relationship between Bitcoin and gold, delves into the influence of corporate treasuries, and warns about the risks from quantum computing. They wrap up with forecasts for price movements and geopolitical shifts impacting Bitcoin's future.

The discussion kicks off with an intriguing debate on quantum computing's potential threat to Bitcoin. Michael Saylor's tweet ignites fears, prompting many investors to sell. Charlie Edwards predicts we could see quantum risks emerge in the next two to nine years. Yet, perceptions may outweigh actual threats, with contrasting views from experts like Troy Cross and Scott Aaronson. Surprisingly, quantum developments could paradoxically make Bitcoin stronger. The fear of quantum might even create a 'quantum discount' affecting Bitcoin's price.

The podcast dives into the curious world of government lotteries, examining their profitability and rising revenues fueled by digital access. It critiques the hypocrisy of states that promote lotteries while arguing against gambling addiction. The historical journey of lotteries is traced from ancient times to their transformation into hidden taxes for the poor. In a twist, the discussion compares Bitcoin mining to lotteries, exploring the themes of decentralization and community participation as a remedy against state control. A fresh perspective emerges on harnessing Bitcoin to challenge conventional lottery systems.

The podcast dives into China's economic strategies, framing deflation as a potential weapon against the West. It explores how deflation impacts heavily indebted economies reliant on inflation and discusses China's currency manipulation tactics. Historical parallels are drawn, highlighting past currency devaluations and their crises, like the 1994 yuan devaluation linked to the Asian crisis. The narrative also reveals China's accumulating gold reserves as a move to tighten control over financial markets.

Delve into Bitcoin's price struggles and uncover who truly benefits from the current market dynamics. Learn about the mechanics of options trading, including Delta, Gamma, and Vega, and how long-term holders employ covered calls for steady income. Discover how market makers' strategies compress Bitcoin's volatility and the risks tied to potential snapbacks in price. Alberto ties it all together with insights on the asymmetry between native Bitcoin holders and ETF options, making for a fascinating conversation about the future of cryptocurrency.

Explore the tactics the wealthy use to dodge taxes and maintain their riches without selling assets. Discover two key rules to minimize taxable events and learn about the intriguing 'Borrow Until You Die' strategy. Dive into how Bitcoin can be leveraged for loans, potentially outpacing traditional real estate investments. Plus, uncover the systemic effects of widespread Bitcoin adoption on living costs and financial strategies. It’s a captivating look at finance, wealth preservation, and the future of currency!

Italy is making waves by claiming ownership of its gold reserves, hinting at a shift in national financial strategies. Recent global trends show a surge in gold demand, driven by defense spending and export restrictions, especially from Russia. The connection between military budgets and gold prices is highlighted, with Poland as a prime example of rising insecurity prompting gold accumulation. Historical comparisons reveal that spikes in gold prices often coincide with economic uncertainties and defense needs, suggesting we might be on the brink of a similar era.

The podcast dives into the potential shakeup at the Fed and its implications for Bitcoin. Market reactions hint at a possible replacement for Powell, with Kevin Hassett's pro-growth stance raising hopes for lower rates. However, there are constraints on how much impact Hassett might have. The discussion also covers Lynn Alden's arguments against a swift debasement trade, alongside the future of the Fed’s balance sheet strategy. Ultimately, the conversation highlights how gradual economic changes could still benefit Bitcoin in an evolving landscape.

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The conversation kicks off with recent institutional shifts, highlighting supportive comments from major players like Bank of America. Vanguard's surprising reversal on Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs sparks intrigue, showing a major pivot in the market. The host compares the slow adoption of indexing to institutions quietly accumulating Bitcoin. Insights into why big investors are changing their stance shed light on evolving market dynamics. The day's topic underscores a potential long-term adoption similar to passive investing's rise, with a nod to Jack Bogle's principles.