Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

https://www.ft.com/content/77ed35a0-cf91-4c7e-b779-a57ecc6b1045

This was supposed to be the summer that we returned to normal, here in New York City and in every major city around the world. Right? But now there’s increasing speculation that it might not happen, because of the Delta variant, and other variants that may hit us from the mutating virus. How should our government and public health leaders respond? How should we respond? We wanted to sit down with frequent Post-Corona guest John Podhoretz for a midsummer check-in on where we are with the City’s return. Specifically, we wanted to return to a topic John joined us to discuss last year - Broadway - when would Broadway really re-open, as that’s a proxy for New York’s return to its vibrant and striving pre-Corona past. John Podhoretz is the editor-in-chief of Commentary Magazine, a columnist for the New York Post, and a long-time writer about live theater, films and popular culture. He’s also a fellow New Yorker, with whom I banter with on an ongoing basis about the state of our City. Keep in mind, pre-Corona, Broadway attracted some 15 million theater-goers and close to $2 billion in revenues in a typical year. And that doesn’t even include all the other derivative jobs that are generated from millions of theater-goers attending shows each year. According to New York City’s tourism agency, in a typical year, there are 66 million visitors to NYC, generating $72B in economic activity and $7B in tax revenues. According to the organization Broadway League, close to $15 billion of that economic activity and 100,000 jobs here come from people going to shows, and visiting restaurants, hotels, transportation, and all the other local services tied to the theater experience. Lots of excitement around Springsteen having re-opened his show on Broadway, but who else? Is this pop culture economy of New York coming back? If not, is that because of structural obstacles with New York’s overall return? Or is the Delta variant the new game-changer? And what about Eric Adams - the favorite to be New York’s next mayor - what do we think of his plans to bring this City back to life? We’ll get into all these topics against the backdrop of Delta and New York.

Who do presidents, prime ministers and business leaders listen to in the midst of managing a crisis? It’s a question that’s always interested me, from my time in government and business and also as a moon-lighting student of history. I thought about that a lot during the covid pandemic. On this podcast series, we’ve talked about how the formal channels in our governments performed these past 18 months. But how about those unofficial channels from outside the government that wind up shaping our leaders' thinking and approach to world-changing events. Think about the number of informed practitioners that government leaders had access to during Covid, outside the regular bureaucracy of government. Practitioners in everything from the markets, to experience with supply chains, to the front lines of medicines. How many of these people had relationships with our leaders from a previous time in their lives, that could or should have made their mark during this moment? We are talking about a different category of presidential advisor. It’s what Gary Ginsberg calls “First Friends”, the title of his new book - the subtitle is “The Powerful, Unsung (And Unelected) People Who Shaped Our Presidents” Gary has a fascinating background, having advised Governor Bill Clinton in his selection of Al Gore as vice-president, and served in the Clinton White House and Justice Department. He also worked for Rupert Murdoch, Jeff Bewkes at Time Warner, Masa Son at Softbank and Mike Bloomberg. He informally advised Israel’s former prime minister during a tumultuous time in US-Israel relations. He’s worked with a lot of leaders up close and observed how they make decisions. Gary’s book is a compelling history of the way US presidents have relied on outside counsel in the midst of chaos. He gives us plenty to think about how our current and future leaders will navigate the next crisis, and who they should rely on.

Yuval currently wears three hats:At the American Enterprise Institute think tank, he’s the Director of Social, Cultural, and Constitutional Studies.He’s the editor-in-chief of National Affairs, a quarterly journal of essays about domestic policy, political economy, and political thought. He’s also authored numerous books. In addition to “A Time To Build”, I also highly recommend “The Fractured Republic”, and also “The Great Debate: Edmund Burke, Thomas Paine, and the Birth of Right and Left”.Yuval served as a member of the White House domestic policy staff under President George W. Bush. He was also executive director of the President’s Council on Bioethics. He earned his masters and PhD from the University of Chicago.

Many have been surprised that areas of the real estate market are booming, Post Corona. So what do we know about the pandemic’s impact on an exodus from some cities, and the growth of other cities? One of the ways that I have learned on this limited series podcast is from our top flight guests, but also from our listeners. A business practitioner - an operator or investor - will hear one of our experts on the pod and get a hold of me with an alternative analysis; it’s like I get to crowdsource ideas from our listeners. Well today, we’re bringing one of those subscribers on the show. Jonathan Pollack is a Senior Managing Director at the Blackstone Group and Blackshone’s Global Head of the Real Estate Debt Strategies group. Blackstone is one of the largest owners of real estate in the world. Jon, who is based in New York, manages a large team, overseeing Blackstone’s real estate debt investment strategy. He’s also a member of the firm’s real estate investment committee, and serves on the board of Blackstone Mortgage Trust. Prior to joining Blackstone, he was a Managing Director and Global Head of Commercial Real Estate, as well as Head of Risk for Structured Finance, at Deutsche Bank. To call Jonathan Pollack a “New York Bull” may be overstating it, but let’s just say he’s a skeptic of some of the skeptics we have featured on Post Corona. So is real estate in New York and other big cities coming back? And what does it tell us about the future of cities? Or - did the Pandemic set them back in ways that will take too long to recover from?

We thank the 92nd Street Y for hosting us then, and for this podcast episode now. You can subscribe to the 92Y podcast here:https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/92y-talks/id905112228

One piece that we reference throughout both discussions is by former New York Times science reporter Nicholas Wade that he published on Medium. Here is the link to Wade’s piece: https://nicholaswade.medium.com/origin-of-covid-following-the-clues-6f03564c038

Danny is also a columnist for Bloomberg View and he's the author of more than ten books. Here are three that I highly recommend: his history of the State of Israel, entitled Israel: A Concise History of a Nation Reborn, his biography of Menachem Begin: The Battle for Israel’s Soul, and more recently We Stand Divided: The Rift Between American Jews and Israel.You can find his newsletter here: https://danielgordis.substack.com

News just out of the CDC has created fresh opportunities for normal, communal time together, indoors — just like we did pre-Corona. One of the rituals I have missed over the past year has been attending synagogue. But long before the Covid-19 pandemic, participation in organized religion - across all walks of religious life - was on the decline. Americans had become less engaged in religious institutions, whether it was regular attendance or membership and donations to their local congregation. Did the pandemic arrest these trends? Did virtual platforms provide new opportunities for religious and communal engagement? Joel Kotkin is a professor and bestselling author. He has been described by The New York Times as “America’s uber-geographer.” He has authored numerous books, including The Coming of Neo-Feudalism, and also The Human City: Urbanism for the Rest of Us. He is also a regular contributor to the Manhattan Institute’s City Journal. Joel recently authored an essay for Quillette that got me thinking more about all of this. It’s titled “God and the Pandemic” and it’s what I wanted to unpack with him today. Will coronavirus have further isolated Americans from organized religion, or drawn them closer to religion in a durable way?

Social links:Amit Aronsohn on InstagramYonatan Sagiv on TwitterYaara Keydar on InstagramDanna Stern on Twitter