The Dividend Cafe

• There is a solution of the problem of always having a reason to sell, and always having a reason to buy: It is – always having a plan … • The nation’s debt is talked about as much any topic in the political/economic sphere, but rarely talked about with any real practical sense of what the eventual possible outcomes actually look like. Today we provide five crystalized options for what eventually comes of America’s national debt. This is crucially important for people who care about their kids and grandkids, and people who don’t. • The “financialization” of the American economy is happening right before our eyes, and it is a major consequence of the monetary regime in which we live. It needs to be understood – the good, bad, and ugly. • Why inflationary efforts are creating more deflation – an economic primer you will love, and your college professors never gave (or got themselves) • Proof that dividend growth requires active management, and that passively trying to get it will ensure you lose it • Small-cap investing is very promising coming out of recessions, and if you think dividend growth needs active management, you should see the data in small-cap! • The economy is picking back up – but wow does it have a lot of work to do. Check out the updated data from air travel, restaurant reservations, retail shopping, and more. And then, check out what really, really matters – business investment. Some investors are focusing on mall traffic in Q2 of 2020. We are focusing on industrial production in Q1 of 2021. • The Chart of the Week tells you why the market keeps embarrassing not just bears, but those who don’t understand how markets work • And in Politics & Money, look at worst news imaginable for President Trump, and the best news imaginable … all at once. It’s an action packed Dividend Cafe, so jump on in … There is no U.S. Open to watch, so you really have no excuse. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Futures overnight dipped 400 points by my bed time, were basically back to even at 3:15am, and then dipped a tad before the 5:30am release on jobless claims. That number came in at 1.5 million, and the market didn’t respond. We opened down and reached down -270 before reversing. It was a bouncy day but never was the range of movement very wide. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Futures overnight dipped 400 points by my bed time, were basically back to even at 3:15am, and then dipped a tad before the 5:30am release on jobless claims. That number came in at 1.5 million, and the market didn’t respond. We opened down and reached down -270 before reversing. It was a bouncy day but never was the range of movement very wide. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market futures pointed down 100 last night, up 200 at 3:00 in the morning, and eventually opened dead flat. The market was quite boring most of the day, and closed down 170 points, dropping in the final hour of trading (just minutes after I told the Wall Street Journal how nice it was to be up or down less than 50 points). Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market futures last night were up 400+ points and the Nikkei in Japan soared over 1,000 points (+5%) overnight. I woke up this morning to a +520 in the Dow futures, and an hour later a report popped that futures were up “amid reports that Trump is preparing a $1 trillion infrastructure proposal.” There is one little problem with the reports that the market futures were up on reports of this infrastructure proposal … they had been up for 13 hours before that “story” broke. And of course, it is no story at all, as we shall see in our public policy section below. On the day markets closed up 527 points. The VIX dropped a bit over 2% – not a lot – but is down 23%+ from the high level of Thursday. Markets were up 800 points, and at one point were back to even, but again, closed up over 500. Intra-day volatility is alive and well. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay of National Call Market Outlook with TBG CIO and Founder, David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice Associates. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

1,800 points came off the Dow in one day, the fourth worst day of the year by the way, and while I spent significant time unpacking it, studying it, and understanding it, I did not spend any time "sweating" it.  As you will see in the content of this week's Dividend Cafe, I believe there is very little evidence of health-related issues at this time to drive markets lower (i.e. so-called "second wave" rhetoric) Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market declined 1,800 points today behind a conflation of factors we will unpack below. Futures were pointing to down 200 at bed time last night, were down over 500 at 3:15am, and dropped more than 850 points from then until the market open. We opened down that much, and then throughout the day saw new intra-day lows hit, as the yield curve flattened and some of the recent high flyers sold off a great deal Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market was all over the map today, with futures up last night at bed time, flat this morning, then up, then down, etc. This is today’s intra-day chart for the Dow – a snooze fest compared to March volatility, of course, but rather substantial up/down movements as far as normal market days go, closing near low levels of the day. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Is the market about to go through a period of “rotation?” Growth vs. Value, Large Cap vs. Small-Cap, Cyclicals vs. Defensives - does it even matter? Our investment committee is back together, sheltering in place at our own studio, bringing you our perspective on all these subjects and more. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com