The Dividend Cafe

I think we have a meaty one today, so here we go with this Monday edition of DC Today … Off we go … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Greetings from New York City, where I am two hedge fund meetings away today from being done with a week of extraordinary meetings, insights, and collaboration with our portfolio management partners.  Some key takeaways are being summarized for next week, and a deliverable will be made available.  More importantly, c  It has been everything I hoped it would be this week, and more. It is a shorter than normal Dividend Cafe this week because of the meeting load (and post-meeting download time).  But I think what I do today you will find useful and valuable, as I use a Q&A format to answer a few key questions about the current investing state of affairs. Let's jump into the Dividend Cafe ... Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Trevor Cummings here, and I am honored to be joining you for the third day in a row.  As mentioned yesterday, David Bahnsen will be back tomorrow with his weekly commentary – Dividend Cafe.  Additionally, I invite you to subscribe to my weekly writings at thoughtsonmoney.com. Now, off to the updates from this busy Thursday market day… Dow: -91.01 (0.30%) S&P: -0.80% Nasdaq: -0.61% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.232% (+10.3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Communication Services (+0.36%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (- 2.51%) WTI Crude Oil: $85.71/barrel (+0.19%) Key Economic Points of the Day: • Liz Truss has resigned as U.K. Prime Minister ◦ This was the shortest tenure in British history ◦ Note, her Finance Minister was dismissed from his post after just 38 days • Jobless claims came in at 214,000 on an expectation of 230,000 ◦ The impacts of Hurricane Ian on the data looked to be much lighter this week ◦ The total number of people collecting unemployment benefits sits at 1.39 million, near a 50-year low ◦ In simple terms, the labor market remains tight • As to be expected, U.S. existing-home sales were down ◦ The figures came in at 4.7 million, nearly on the dot with expectations ◦ This is eight consecutive months of decline and, when compared to September 2021, a slide of 23.8% ◦ Reminder, mortgage interest rates are skyrocketing, the general population is on edge regarding inflation and recession, and this combination of anxiety and affordability is slowing down activity • The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index published today ◦ This regional look is meant to give a sneak peek at what the national ISM data might look like next month ◦ the numbers came in at -8.7 on an expectation of -5 (note, any number below 0 represents declining business conditions) TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to DC Today where I, Trevor Cummings, will be your guest host again on this fine Wednesday. Please join me for the video or podcast (links below), as there is quite a bit to cover and discuss today. David Bahnsen will be back on Friday with his normally scheduled program – Dividend Cafe Dow: -98.54 (-0.32%) S&P: -0.66% Nasdaq: -0.85% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.131% (+13.3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.94%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-2.56%) WTI Crude Oil: $85.63/barrel (+3.39%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Today we saw the published data for new housing starts and building permits Housing starts came in at 1.4mm on an expectation of 1.47mm Down 8.1% seasonally adjusted and down 7.7% year-over-year in September Looking at the attribution, we see new homes fell 4.7% and new apartment construction fell 13.1% Building permits came in at 1.56mm on an expectation of 1.5mm Rising 1.4% in the month of September Permits for new homes fell 3.1%, with apartment construction rising 8.2% Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This is Trevor Cummings joining you as your guest host on DC Today.  You can find my weekly commentary at www.thoughtsonmoney.com.  Also, please join me for the DC Today video and podcast – see below. Market Action Dow: +341.67 (1.13%) S&P: 1.16%% Nasdaq: 0.9% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.994% (+2 basis points) Top-performing sector: Industrials (+2.36%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (+0.54%) WTI Crude Oil: $83.22/barrel (-2.6%) Key Economic Point of the Day: • Industrial production in September rose 0.4% which was a surprise to the upside – estimates were 0.1%.  Additionally, August was revised slightly to the upside, as well; a revision from -0.2% to -0.1%. • The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) monthly confidence fell 8 points to 38 in October, making 10 consecutive months of decline.  Note, the index was at 80 last October and this 10-month decline tops the record of consecutive declining months set in ’06/’08. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Greetings from the world’s greatest city where we kicked off money manager meeting week with significant discussions with the CIO, the taxable fixed income team, and the levered loan group at Voya, and this afternoon met with the real estate team, private equity group, and head real estate folks at Blackstone.  It won’t be this many meetings every day this week (it better not be), but it was a great way to start off the week.  My summary of the whole week will be prepared at the end of the week for public consumption. Futures opened last night up +100 points and stayed positive throughout the night even as Japanese markets struggled.  By bedtime, we were about +150 in overnight futures and at the crack of dawn this morning (now on eastern time zone), futures were pointing to a +300-point open. The market opened up +500 points and got as high as +675 points, and stayed very level throughout the day. The Dow closed up +550 points (+1.86%) with the S&P 500 up +2.65% and the Nasdaq up a massive +3.43%. UK bonds rallied violently this morning as yields collapsed, no doubt the key correlative event to the U.S. stock market rally overnight.  The 30-year and 20-year dropped by a stunning 40 basis points, and each point on the yield curve from three years up to ten years was down by almost the same.  Anyone who bought British bonds last week made about two years’ worth of return in about 24 hours. The ten-year bond yield closed today at 4.01%, up less than a basis point on the day I am not sure what to think about the measurement of bond returns in 1721 when churning butter was the most profound technological advancement of the decade, but I do know this: 2022 is going in the history books for global sovereign bond returns Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I hear often from investors who are focused on the “fun” parts of risk-asset investing that they “don’t care” about the bond market. Truth be told, it doesn’t do a lot to excite me, either. Most professional bond managers I know seem to be borderline Communists (just kidding), and the bond market itself lacks the human action that I believe is embedded in things like operating enterprises. But the bond market cares about us whether or not we care about it, and that is the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe. It is a message I like a lot, and I believe if you jump into today’s Dividend Cafe, you will come out more enlightened about economic growth, stock market pricing, interest rates, and the decisions we face as investors. So let’s do just that. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Okay, so one of the largest intra-day market moves on record (from down -550 to up +950 – a 1,500 bottom-to-top move today). So there is market action AND inflation/economic action to unpack, and you have come to the right place: MARKET ACTION Dow: Up +828 points (+2.83%) – was down -550 points at the low S&P: +2.60% Nasdaq: 2.23% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.95% (+5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Financials (+4.14%) – I am not going to take the time to look it up, but I will safely guess that this is the best day in years for Financials; in fact, I bet HALF of this would be the best day of 2022 for financials … NOTE: Energy was right behind it at +4.08% Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (+0.98%) WTI Crude Oil: $89.25/barrel (+2.27%) Key Economic Point of the Day: CPI (headline) increased +0.4% for the month where +0.3% had been expected. Headline inflation is up +8.2% on the year vs. a peak of +8.9% several months back. Core CPI (ex food and energy) was up +0.6% in September. Energy prices fell -2.1% but food prices increased +0.8%. It is all about food inflation in the aggregate data. Services is the source of increased inflation. Rents were up +0.8% on the month and primary residence impact is up +7.2% year-over-year. This is simply not true in the present tense but the lag effect is the driver here as we shall all see in a couple months’ time. The Fed has NO influence on this, but Health insurance prices were up a staggering 2.1% on the month and are up +28% on the year Airfare is up 43% on the year (base effect from limited travel a year ago) Goods prices were FLAT – slowest year-over-year increase since May 2021 (+6.6%) Used car prices down -1.1% on the month Clothing down -0.3% Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The market zigged and zagged all day and was down -100 and up +200 before closing down a tad in the final minutes of trading. Lots to say about the Bank of England in today’s podcast … MARKET ACTION Dow: -28 points (-0.10%) S&P: -0.33% Nasdaq: 0.09% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.89% (- 4 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+0.75%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-3.42%) – the collapse in this sector in the last month is absolutely unprecedented WTI Crude Oil: $87.09/barrel (-2.53%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Core PPI (ex-food and energy) came in exactly in line at +0.3%. August’s PPI was revised downwards. September’s PPI headline read (w/ food and energy) was +0.4%. The year-over-year headline PPI is +8.5% vs. +8.7% last month. Processed goods prices fell for the third month in a row. Prices for transportation and storage fell -0.2%. Goods down, services up. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

An odd day (old school) as the Dow started down a bit, rallied way higher (up +400 points at one point), fell into negative territory, then closed up +36 as old-guard defensive sectors did very well (Real Estate, Consumer Staples, Health Care) and the cool stuff got hit. More to say on everything here. MARKET ACTION Dow: +36 points (+0.12%) S&P: -0.65% Nasdaq: -1.10% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.937% (+5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+1.02%) and Consumer Staples (+0.93%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-1.63%) and Technology (-1.52%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.68/barrel (-2.73%) Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com