The Dividend Cafe

Today’s podcast features our entire Investment Committee in a battle royale (of mostly agreement), talking trade war, markets yields, negative rates, “this time it’s different,” stock sectors, and alternative investments. Subscribe to the Dividend Café Podcast Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen unpacks everything from the market’s response to "the trade war" and the "the rate war" to where things stand in the ongoing efforts with China, to what the Fed is doing, to the way people are ventilating about the yield curve. Market Volatility The Trade War The Fed and Interest Rates Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Fears Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: For many years now we have been using our Dividend Café property to bring you frequent market commentary and portfolio perspective. Last year, we introduced the Fiscal Feminist identity, spear-headed by our very own Kimberlee Davis to address significant financial issues relevant in the lives of women. Today, we bring you a blended Dividend Café/Fiscal Feminist (the Dividend Feminist, or the Fiscal Café – you pick!) – wherein Kimberlee and I discuss together the whole landscape of financial advice, what approach to portfolio construction a new investor ought to take, and how issues pertinent to women and the Dividend Cafe are far more overlapped than many want to believe. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: We know the following things about the last 2-3 weeks in the market: (A) The China/trade war has blown up (B) The Yield curve has inverted (C) Negative yields persist all over the globe (D) Recession talk is everywhere So markets are obviously volatile, but it isn’t clear how these above things relate to one another, and people want to know what is going on. What I seek to do in this short, succinct podcast is get right to the point about what is going on – short term, and long term. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Is volatility back? You tell me - here was the market action this week: Down 400 points Monday, Up 400 points Tuesday. Down 800 points Wednesday. And as I submit this for the week, Thursday (late morning) we are up a little over 100 points (but saw the pre-market futures up and down hundreds of points at a time). There is always one reason for "up & down" volatility (is there any other kind?), and it is uncertainty. In the Dividend Cafe this week we are going to look at the sources of the uncertainty and seek to enhance your understanding of the world affairs that are driving capital markets at present. This has been the most volatile week of the year in the market, with last week being the second most. In other words, since July 31 we really been sitting at non-stop market drama. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: Volatility expectations in the weeks/months ahead Trade war Currency Brexit Hong Kong The Fed Asset allocation when the 10-year is 1.65% and equities face uncertainty and volatility Within equities, what looks good? Energy sector Is big tech/new tech dead? Low beta or high beta? Outlook for dividend growth Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: The last peace treaty in this trade war was supposed to be simple enough: The Chinese agreed to buy more agriculture from the United States and the U.S. agreed to lay off Huawei. Not even that was able to last. The intense stock market volatility of the last week is not the most problematic aspect of the trade war from an economic standpoint. We will focus our analysis on: (1) The macroeconomic impact on U.S. growth, and (2) The currency implications for global markets The outlook for U.S. economic growth is falling apart under the pressures of this trade war. Focusing on the far right of this chart, you see the Business Investment aspect of GDP growth (blue line) accelerating significantly after President Trump was elected, in line with the CEO survey on planned capital expenditures (red line). And then you see both collapsing together in response to trade tensions. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: The market suffered its worst week of the year last week and the downside accelerated today in response to China’s currency depreciation and the general market realization that this trade war ending is nowhere in sight. We sat down as an Investment Committee this morning and recorded our best thoughts and ideas around all of this to inform and edify your understanding as it pertains to your portfolio and overall economic expectations. We particularly hope you will at least listen to the ending conclusions we offer. Please listen to this special Dividend Café podcast! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Topics discussed: This week's trip to the Dividend Cafe will look at the overall health of the U.S. economy, at the state of credit markets, at all the context around the Fed's present thinking, and some very important reminders about dividend growth during this crucial time. Investors should be prepared for two things when central bankers add stimulus to asset prices that are already operating as if they do not need any stimulus: (1) What is high is very possibly going to go higher; and (2) Bad investments will get made, and bad investments do not end well, ever. No central banker or politician can change that. The Federal Reserve did something they have not done in nearly eleven years this week - they cut interest rates Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Markets appear to be up a tad on the week, with little volatility to show for it (as of press time, anyway). Earnings season is off to a really strong start, but I want to wait one more week to begin "report carding" earnings season (partially to not jinx it, and partially because it is a tad premature). I took advantage of this week's slow news week (sorry, Mueller) to talk about the broad economy and my perspective on where we are in the macroeconomic cycle, and what it means for all of us at this stage in the game. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com