The Dividend Cafe

Dive into the factors driving a major market rally, driven by recent geopolitical shifts in Venezuela, including the U.S. military operation that arrested Nicolás Maduro. Explore potential future scenarios for Venezuela's political landscape and its implications for the energy sector. Insights on the aging of IPO companies reveal broader societal impacts, while economic updates cover tariffs, housing trends, and manufacturing data. The discussion wraps up with insights on forecasting and portfolio strategies for the upcoming year.

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4pUysvR Final Dividend Cafe of 2025: Year-End Market Recap and Outlook for 2026 In this final Dividend Cafe of 2025, David Bahnsen reviews key economic data points and market trends, including the performance of major indices and sector highlights. The discussion covers the lack of seasonality in market movements, updates on bond yields, and the significance of periodic portfolio rebalancing. The episode also touches on public policy issues related to data centers and provides insights on midstream energy sectors. David announces the upcoming annual 'year behind, year ahead' white paper and his ongoing book project on dividend growth investing. The session concludes with a look ahead to the first Dividend Cafe of 2026 and encourages listeners to read further on topics like gold as an inflation hedge. 00:00 Welcome to the Final Dividend Cafe of 2025 00:43 Recap of the Year and Upcoming Plans 02:44 Market Updates and Trends 06:29 Public Policy and The Fed 07:28 Energy Sector Insights 08:39 Looking Ahead to 2026 Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4p4y8t8 Reflecting on 25 Years of Market Lessons in the Final Friday Dividend Cafe of 2025 In the final Friday Dividend Cafe of 2025, the speaker reflects on the major market events and financial lessons from the first 25 years of the new century and millennium. From the Y2K fears and dot-com bubble burst, through the 9/11 attacks, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic, this episode covers significant economic and geopolitical events that shaped the markets. The speaker emphasizes the normality of instability in markets and the importance of staying invested despite turbulent times. The primary takeaway is that long-term investment in profit-making enterprises, especially via dividend growth investing, has proven resilient and rewarding. The episode closes with an encouragement to appreciate the lessons learned and look forward to the future with a disciplined investment approach. 00:00 Introduction and Overview 00:15 Reflecting on the First 25 Years 02:51 The Dotcom Bubble and Y2K 09:58 9/11 and Market Reactions 14:19 The Financial Crisis of 2008 18:15 The Recovery Decade 20:33 The COVID-19 Pandemic 24:15 Lessons from 25 Years of Market Instability 31:20 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Recap: Thursday, December 18 - Modest Gains and Inflation Insights In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel provides an update on the market movements for Thursday, December 18. The DOW closed with a modest gain of 65 points (0.14%), S&P increased by 0.8%, and NASDAQ saw a tech-led rally with a 1.38% rise. Despite a rebound, the week is expected to end negatively for stocks overall. A key focus is the release of the latest CPI print, which showed a surprisingly low inflation rate of 2.7% versus the expected 3.1%, but the numbers are questionable due to a government shutdown affecting data collection. Initial jobless claims came in line with consensus at 224,000, while continuing claims were slightly below expectations. The Philly Fed Index reported a weaker-than-expected manufacturing number at -10 versus the expected +3. Brian also discusses the interplay between inflation rates and the role of the Fed, emphasizing that market forces and money supply are critical factors. He wraps up with light-hearted remarks about holiday shopping and extends holiday greetings to viewers. 00:00 Market Update: December 18th 00:10 Stock and Bond Performance 00:59 CPI Report Analysis 02:01 Economic Calendar Highlights 02:45 Inflation and The Fed's Role 04:24 Closing Remarks and Holiday Wishes Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Declines, Fed Policy, and Strategic Dividend Investing - Dividend Cafe Update In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the recent downturn in the stock market, particularly in AI-related stocks and cryptocurrencies. Financial volatility and credit default swaps in major names are highlighted. Szytel also reviews ongoing discussions about the next Federal Reserve chair and the implications of potential rate cuts and balance sheet actions. He provides insights on dividend investing strategy, emphasizing yield sustainability and growth. Upcoming economic data releases are previewed, including initial claims, November CPI, December Philly Fed manufacturing, consumer sentiment, and existing home sales. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:21 AI and Cryptocurrency Market Trends 01:12 Federal Reserve and Economic Policies 03:27 Impact of Rate Cuts and Economic Stimulus 05:04 Dividend Income Strategies 06:59 Upcoming Economic Data and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Movements, Economic Indicators, and AI vs Dot-Com Era Analysis In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel provides a daily market recap for Tuesday, December 16th, detailing a mixed day with NASDAQ slightly positive, and declines in DOW and S&P indices. He discusses the impact of new economic data including better-than-expected non-farm payrolls and a rise in unemployment rates from 4.4% to 4.6%. Szytel also covers flash readings on services and manufacturing PMI which were below consensus. Additionally, he compares the dot-com era of the 90s with today's AI paradigm, highlighting the ongoing capital expenditure needs for AI technologies. Lastly, he addresses a Q&A about potentially creating a financial terminology booklet to help demystify investment jargon. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:41 Economic Data Breakdown 03:13 Comparing Dot-Com Era to AI Boom 05:36 Q&A Session and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3MvD1Ot Monday Market Recap and Reflections on Recent Events In this Monday edition of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen discusses various market trends and policy issues from the New York City office. He reflects on the significant news events over the weekend, including the Brown University shooting, attacks in Australia and Syria, and the murder of filmmaker Rob Reiner and his wife. David analyzes stock market behaviors, including sector performances and reactions to AI infrastructure stocks, and provides insights into bond yields and the housing market. He also touches on Supreme Court cases affecting tariffs and forecasts potential policy moves regarding the Affordable Care Act subsidies. Lastly, he speaks about the tragic death of Rob Reiner, highlighting the impact of his films. 00:00 Introduction and Upcoming Schedule 02:13 Reflecting on a Tragic News Weekend 03:41 Market Overview and Key Observations 04:50 AI Sector Performance and Market Rotation 06:47 Bond Yields and Financial Sector Insights 09:31 Policy Updates and Supreme Court Predictions 12:08 Economic Data and Trade Deficit Analysis 13:14 Housing Market Trends and Builder Sentiment 16:17 Federal Reserve Actions and Interest Rates 19:28 Tribute to Rob Reiner and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

David Bahnsen reflects on the profound influence of his father, Greg Bahnsen, on investment philosophy and financial advisory. He shares personal anecdotes about Greg's relentless work ethic and philosophical foundations that guided his approach. A touching look at Greg's health challenges resonates with discussions of modern medical innovations, highlighting their significance. David also tackles the importance of coherent investment philosophies and the role of self-deception in investor behavior, cementing his father's legacy within The Bahnsen Group's principles.

Market Overview and Insights on Private Credit – December 11, 2025 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an update on the financial markets from the Newport Beach office of The Bahnsen Group. The DOW closed up by 646 points, while the S&P had modest gains and NASDAQ saw a slight decline. Szytel discusses the rotation from growth to value sectors, the recent actions of the Federal Reserve, and their impacts on the market. He also covers upcoming deregulatory changes and tax cuts, a weakening labor market, and concerns about overstated employment numbers. Additionally, he answers a listener question about payment-in-kind (PIK) in private credit, explaining the risks and how such loans are typically managed. He concludes by emphasizing the past three years' market performance and the potential for slower growth ahead. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:14 Stock Market Performance 01:13 Bond Market Insights 01:35 Federal Reserve Actions and Economic Impact 03:15 Corporate Profits and Economic Outlook 04:10 Private Credit and Payment in Kind (PIK) 06:18 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Post-FOMC Meeting Market Reaction and Economic Outlook - December 10, 2023 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group in Newport Beach discusses the market's reactions to the Federal Reserve's recent actions. On December 10th, 2023, the Federal Reserve concluded its FOMC meeting, cutting rates by 25 basis points and adding to its balance sheet, which boosted both the stock and bond markets. The Dow closed up 497 points, with the S&P and Nasdaq also showing gains. Szytel explains the significance of the steepening yield curve, which signals positive economic growth, and reviews the Federal Reserve's future interest rate expectations, unemployment, inflation, and GDP projections. The episode also addresses an op-ed by Muhammad Al Arian regarding the restructuring of The Fed. Overall, the episode provides an optimistic outlook on short-term risk assets and the economy. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:16 Federal Reserve Meeting Insights 00:48 Market Reactions and Performance 01:25 Understanding Yield Curves 03:28 Economic Projections and Fed Actions 04:30 Op-Ed Discussion and Final Thoughts 05:17 Conclusion and Upcoming Topics Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com