Departures with Robert Amsterdam

China's recent political history has taken place at breakneck speed. A historic economic transformation, the consolidation of centralized power not seen since Mao, and the eager but then later truculent participation in the global economy. How do we measure this progress and its costs, and how do we measure its shortcomings? The numbers matter, and they are rarely presented at face value. This is the point of the most recent book by Jeremy Lee Wallace, "Seeking Truth and Hiding Facts: Information, Ideology, and Authoritarianism in China." Wallace argues that China's system of excessive control has created numerous statistical distortions which lead to numerous blind spots. These blind spots only seem to be expanding in recent years. In his discussion with host Robert Amsterdam, Wallace talks about how Xi's responses have only made it worse with "aggressive anti-corruption campaigns, reassertion of party authority, and personalization of power--is an attempt fix the problems of the prior system, as well as a hedge against an inability to do so."

When we think of networks of organized crime, we tend to place them in their own category, occupying an "underworld" of its own rules separate from the norms and laws that guide our states operate in societies. In his new book, "Gangsters and Other Statesmen: Mafias, Separatists, and Torn States in a Globalized World," Danilo Mandić, a political sociologist at Harvard, challenges this assumption and points to numerous examples of crime and criminal networks being interwoven and overlaid on numerous governments and separatist movements, which of course often has a major impact in terms of how these states are formed, how peace is brokered in conflicts, and how national identity is formed. Mandić's book presents fascinating first-hand field research from some of the world's most contested regions, including disputed territories of Kosovo and South Ossetia, where he was interviewed mobsters, separatists, and policymakers along major smuggling routes. In this interview with Robert Amsterdam, Mandić discusses how often mainstream academic discourse has ignored the influential role of non-state actors in the criminal world, and argues that these groups can be a fateful determinant of state capacity, separatist success, and ethnic conflict.

To celebrate the 150th episode of Departures, we held a live recording with a terrific group of invited guests in London. We're grateful to John Lough, a former NATO officer, a Senior Vice President at the consultancy Highgate, and the author of the book, "Germany's Russia Problem," who provided introductory remarks. Our longtime friend and colleague David Satter provided a presentation of his most recent book, "Never Speak to Strangers and Other Writing from Russia and the Soviet Union," and responded to questions from the audience. And we were also fortunate to enjoy a special appearance by Ilya Ponomarev, a Kyiv-based entrepreneur and political advisor, who was able to offer unparalled insights into the conflict and give his take on how Putin is going to respond to the increasing pressures all around him. The quality of the recording is unfortunately not the best we have had, but we are grateful for the strong showing of listeners who came out for the breakfast forum as well as grateful for all of regular audience listening from afar.

Throughout the global supply chain, there are chokepoints where states and stakeholders exploit an opportunity to extract rents - and this includes nearby the origin of critical minerals, diamonds, and other natural resources in relatively ungoverned areas of Africa such as the Eastern Congo. Peer Schouten, who is a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies and who has spent years working in the DRC and the Central African Republic, has now published one of the first studies comprehensively documenting these roadblocks, how they are politically managed, and what they mean in terms of funding rebel groups and violent conflicts which have become such a high-profile geopolitical concern. With more than a decade's worth of field work, Schouten's excellent book, "Roadblock Politics: The Origins of Violence in Central Africa," challenges a number of longstanding Western presumptions about state formation and conflict in the region. His findings highlight connections between multinational corporations selling you cell phones and electric vehicles with the hyper local economies nearby mining sites, from women-run restaurants and bars to basic state services like healthcare and schools.  In this critique, Schouten's book finds much to be desired with efforts by the donor community and foreign governments to restrict trade of goods associated with conflict, finding that rebel groups have easily circumvented such attempts to influence power dynamics. International observers have failed to understand, Schouten argues, that logistics in the region is not characterized by chaos, but instead by “rather consistent rules and logics of control."      

Every day in the media we are told that the United States is irreparably polarized. That lines have been drawn, political opinions have been weaponized into tribal identities, and that apart from an ever-slimming section of undecideds, we are locked into this dreadful stalemate. That's why it's so refreshing to read a more optimistic take on how people can still be persuaded, how hearts and minds can still be won over despite the algorithms and toxicity of our public discourse. Today we're very honored to feature a special guest, the author and journalist Anand Giridharadas, whose new book, "The Persuaders: At the Front Lines of the Fight for Hearts, Minds, and Democracy," presents a very thoughtful take on what it takes to make change in US politics at the local level. We spoke to Anand the morning after the 2022 US midterms, which brought a surprisingly stronger performance from the Democrats than expected in key races, though certainly not  universal. In his discussion with Robert Amsterdam, Anand highlights some key takeaways from this election, discusses his research of "deep canvassing" in campaigns, and gives some insights into why so many candidates focus on "mobilizing the faithful rather than wooing the skeptical." In a space that is usually consumed by anger, rage, and contention, Giridharadas' book offers positivity, making an important argument for candidates, parties, and movements to broaden their outreach, not by diluting their principles but by communicating effectively to include instead of exclude.  

With the global economy going through an unprecedented energy transition away from fossil fuels, demand is exploding for critical minerals essential for batteries and electrification, such as copper, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths. Accompanying this demand is a new geopolitical playing field, most commonly dominated by China, taking place in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In his excellent authoritative new book, "Conflict Minerals, Inc.: War, Profit and White Saviourism in Eastern Congo," expert researcher Christoph N. Vogel unpacks the complex causal relationships between so-called "digital minerals" and the corruption and violent conflicts which have radically disrupted stability in the region. In his conversation with Robert Amsterdam during this episode, Vogel draws from a richly detailed history of colonialism to the formation of the current state to shine a harsh light on failed efforts by Western NGOs and governments, pointing toward new thinking about the sorts of standards which could be implemented that may be more effective in developing safety and stability for the communities living near these incredibly lucrative mineral reserves.

As Xi Jinping concludes the 20th Party Congress and becomes the first Chinese leader to secure a third term, there is arguably no one in a position quite so powerful and influential in global politics. But who is Xi Jinping and what does he really want?  This is the question tackled by two veteran German journalists, Stefan Aust and Adrian Geiges in their terrific new book, "Xi Jinping: The Most Powerful Man in the World." With clear-eyed analysis which avoids some of the usual pitfalls found in US approaches to China, Aust and Geiges draw a deeply detailed portrait of Xi's rise and the foundations of his ideological drive. In this conversation with Robert Amsterdam, the two co-authors discuss the level of risk Xi has encountered by pushing China's growth into a more aggressive, confrontational posture, and debate the various scenarios we can see coming in the new several years as the third term gets underway.  

Is Xi Jinping the most powerful political figure in the world? Or are his efforts to secure tighter control at home and project influence abroad more a sign of underlying weakness? As Xi sails toward an unprecedented third term at the 19th Party Congress in China, Departures is pleased to feature special guest author Frank Dikötter whose new book, "China After Mao: The Rise of a Superpower," presents a compelling and detailed portrait of the major events which led us to today. In his discussion with Robert Amsterdam, Dikötter discusses how China presented its recovery plan on 40 years of economic transformation based on reform and opening up to the world, but finds that there was actually very little reform and even less opening up. "There's a major misconception that I hope will be corrected when readers go through my book," Dikötter says. The idea that Xi Jinping is some sort of dictator who wants to go back to the Mao period - and if only we could go back to where we were before Xi Jinping, maybe there was a chance for China to develop in a different direction. Highly unlikely, Dikötter argues, as since as far back as 1972 the party has shown a very clear commitment to the monopoly on power and controlling the economic means of production. "What we are getting from Xi Jinping is hardly a departure from what has happened under other leaders," he says. Dikötter's rigorous examination of rare government archives makes this book stand out for its detailed and colorful history of this period, and contributes enormously to understanding how the West has failed to anticipate China's vision for the world order.

Some autocracies come and go, but others have a seemingly infinite shelf-life, showing a structural resiliency to any efforts at reform or democratic change that is strong, durable, and long lasting. More than 20 years ago, the rock star political scientists Lucan Way and Steven Levitsky wrote a paper examining the characteristics of successful autocratic countries, and advanced a hugely influential theory of competitive authoritarianism and hybrid regimes. Now, in 2022, they are back with a terrific new book called, "Revolution and Dictatorship: The Violent Origins of Durable Authoritarianism," which explores why the violent social revolutions in countries like China, Cuba, Iran, the Soviet Union, and Vietnam led to durable regimes. Co-author Lucan Way, a professor at the University of Toronto, joins the Departures podcast today to discuss the book with Robert Amsterdam, exploring their idea called the "reactive sequence," referring to how the intensity of international reaction and pressure ends up strengthening these regimes.  Prof. Way and Amsterdam discuss how this relates to the current predicament of balancing sanctions with accommodation, and how successful foreign policy and support for improving rule and law democracy lies somewhere in between.

The sharpening polarization taking place in the United States over the past several election cycles has gradually calcified the nation's institutions into obstructionist forces which are impeding Washington's ability to project its influence abroad. Now, many are asking, is the United States really the "indispensable" power it perceives itself to be, or are we witnessing the beginning of its abdication? These are the questions that Michael Cox, an Emeritus Professor at the London School of Economics, wrestles with in his fascinating new book, "Agonies of Empire: American Power from Clinton to Biden." Professor Cox joins Robert Amsterdam on the podcast this week to discuss his study of US foreign policy across the past five presidential administrations, with particular attention paid to the less recognized achievements of geoeconomic statecraft during certain periods followed by less successful doctrines of later presidents. Cox brings a uniquely British perspective to the ways in which the American people expect their leaders to exercise power, interrogating a number of sweeping presumptions from the cultivation of patriotism, the discontent over globalization (despite benefitting immensely from it), and the strange "parochial-ness" of this lone superpower, and many other interesting questions unearthed across this period of history.