The Outthinking Investor

Investors are challenged to mitigate the impact of a variety of risks, from rising inflation to a global economic downturn. What about the risks that are harder to imagine? Recent events such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have altered the investment outlook in significant ways, turning a spotlight on the potential for new tail risks that may be on the horizon. In this episode, author and UC Berkeley lecturer Kevin Coldiron and Columbia Business School professor Laura Veldkamp discuss recent liquidity crises, portfolio strategies for managing tail risks, and why tighter monetary policies could expose cracks in the financial system. For more on this topic, PGIM’s 2022 Global Risk Report analyzes the results of our tail-risk survey, which canvassed 400 senior decision-makers whose firms have a combined AUM of more than $12 trillion.

The Canada Pension Plan has prospered by investing in alternative markets such as private equity and debt, becoming a model for institutional investors around the world. Today, global pools of private capital stand at over $12 trillion, doubling in just six years.   In this episode, PGIM COO Taimur Hyat and economist Josh Lerner from Harvard Business School offer unique perspectives into the factors driving growth in private markets, current investment opportunities, and the outlook for private markets as interest rates rise.

The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy has created opportunities to invest in a broad array of green technologies. However, this evolution will be decades in the making with plenty of twists along the way. As the emergence of green energy takes shape, how can investors tap into renewables as well as underinvested corners of the traditional energy sector? In this episode, environmental activist and investor Tom Steyer, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies’ James Henderson, and PGIM Private Capital’s Brian Thomas discuss the portfolio implications and challenges associated with the energy transition.

The first experiment in quantitative easing ended in failure for 18th-century France. Is this a lesson for modern times? After years of ultra-low interest rates, central banks are tightening monetary policy to combat rampant inflation - a shift that has ignited volatility and depressed asset prices. With a sea change in interest rates underway, where can investors turn to bolster their portfolios? In this episode, PGIM Quantitative Solutions' Ed Campbell and financial historian and author Edward Chancellor discuss the pitfalls of low rates and the investment outlook for a new era.

The economy has undergone a massive transformation in a short period of time. Global lockdowns and the policy response to the pandemic have rippled through labor markets and supply chains, while war in Europe has added fuel to inflation’s surge. As the economy continues to evolve, what investment opportunities lie ahead? How will recent trends in technology, energy and business play out? Rob Kaplan and Adam Tooze join PGIM Fixed Income’s Ellen Gaske to analyze how the global economy is changing and consider what the future might hold for investors.

America's factories were humming during World War II, churning out supplies for the military. After the war, as government spending faded and inflation spiked, macroeconomists were worried that the economy would stumble. Nearly eight decades later, a surge in prices during the U.S. economy's recovery from the pandemic has stoked similar fears.  What can we learn from the post-WWII period? Are we headed for economic stagnation, or even 1970s-style stagflation? Larry Summers discusses the economic outlook and implications for central bank policy.

America's economy underwent massive change in the 1800s, a period when wealthy financiers like Carnegie, Vanderbilt and Rockefeller played crucial roles in driving the industrial revolution. Today, access to private markets is expanding, and savvy investors are embracing this evolution as part of a diversified portfolio. What are the advantages, challenges, and future opportunities for investors in private markets - from venture capital to real estate to private equity and beyond? And how are private markets changing as the era of low inflation and rock-bottom rates comes to an end?

Investors may be looking back at the days of disco with a sense of déjà vu. Surging inflation, rising energy prices and the prospect of higher interest rates have sent a ripple through global financial markets – just like they did in the 1970s. In the Season 2 premiere of The OUTThinking Investor, we talk to PGIM experts to better understand today’s inflationary shock and how it will play out for investors.

Pandemic. War. Inflation. Deglobalization.   Investors around the world face one of the most uncertain and tumultuous periods in recent memory. The Ukraine invasion, a tightening labor market, and fragmented supply chains are driving rapid inflation, while rising interest rates will cause headwinds for growth.     With global capital markets shifting faster than ever, investors need to keep their finger on the pulse of change. Are we on the verge of a wage increase spiral? How is private capital changing the landscape for small firms? Can investors avoid greenwashing in their ESG exposure? What are the signposts for deglobalization?  Welcome to Season 2 of The Outthinking Investor – an award-winning podcast from PGIM.   In upcoming episodes, we’ll speak with global thought leaders and PGIM experts to understand the current trends and forces reshaping global finance. We’ll bring unique perspectives to the underappreciated challenges – and overlooked opportunities – that face investors today.  

The Surprising Transformation of Sovereign Wealth Funds: We look beyond the oil-rich lands of the Middle East to uncover the unexpected beginnings of sovereign wealth funds (in Texas, of all places) and examine the structure of the world’s largest (in Norway). As AUM in SWFs continue to surge, how will they exert greater influence—and possibly even promote sustainability—over global markets?