The Outthinking Investor

This is the final installment of a two-part episode in which we further examine what sparked the latest bank crisis and whether it was a canary in the coal mine. Robert Armstrong, US financial commentator and writer of Unhedged for the Financial Times, and John Cochrane, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, join us to discuss the implications of banking fragilities, keeping a long-term investment horizon amid market volatility, and how swelling government debts could set the stage for new market risks. For more on this topic, visit our bank crisis hub to explore views from across PGIM.

Like a lighthouse surveying the waters for signs of distress, investors are challenged to shield their portfolios from potential turmoil in financial markets. But uncovering risks before they reveal themselves is a monumental task—even for the most savvy investors. Fault lines lurking in the banking sector came into view in the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank's collapse. As a consequence of the pivot from years of ultra-low rates to the sudden tightening of monetary policy, investors must be on the lookout for new cracks that may form. In the first installment of a two-part episode, we take a closer look at the fallout from the bank crisis and where other risks could arise. Rob Kaplan, former President of the Dallas Fed, and George Patterson, Chief Investment Officer of PGIM Quantitative Solutions, discuss lessons learned from banking turmoil, the difficult path ahead for central banks, and where investors can find longer-term opportunities amid an uncertain environment.

The Hotel Lafayette in downtown Buffalo, New York, was the site of the first-ever meeting of the Optimist Club, which gathered during a tumultuous period for financial markets following the panic of 1910. Research has shown that optimism provides a sense of control. As uncertainty hovers over markets today, investors might seek to harness the power of optimism to overcome financial stress and make better decisions for their portfolios. Can investors remain optimistic while also surveilling markets for downside risks? Economist Brad DeLong, author of Slouching Towards Utopia, and the CFA Institute Research Foundation's Laurence Siegel, author of Fewer, Richer, Greener, join PGIM Fixed Income's Robert Tipp, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds, to discuss reasons for investors to be optimistic about the future, particularly as opportunities emerge in the bond market.

Labor markets around the world tightened during the pandemic, contributing to a rapid rise in inflation. Demographic changes could make tight labor markets a lasting characteristic of the global economy. Most of the world's biggest economies are home to an aging citizenry, while their populations are growing at a slower rate overall. These trends have the potential to alter market dynamics in the decades to come. Katharine Neiss, PGIM Fixed Income's Chief European Economist, and Charles Goodhart, Emeritus Professor at the London School of Economics and author of The Great Demographic Reversal, join us as we explore the inflationary effects of demographic changes, the implications for monetary and fiscal policy, and how aging populations could reshape the economy and the global investment landscape.

When the future becomes increasingly uncertain, investors need to cut through the noise and think beyond the obvious answers. In season three of The OUTThinking Investor, an award-winning podcast from PGIM, global thought leaders and PGIM experts will bring their unique perspectives for the year ahead and beyond. Is inflation finally on the retreat? Can labor markets withstand an economic slowdown and demographic headwinds? Will the tense geopolitical climate ease or escalate? What is the outlook for interest rates after the rapid hikes of 2022? Join us as we reexamine the past, present-day opportunities, and future possibilities in global capital markets — to help you spot opportunities when markets are stressed and uncover risks when markets are rising.

Investors are challenged to mitigate the impact of a variety of risks, from rising inflation to a global economic downturn. What about the risks that are harder to imagine? Recent events such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have altered the investment outlook in significant ways, turning a spotlight on the potential for new tail risks that may be on the horizon. In this episode, author and UC Berkeley lecturer Kevin Coldiron and Columbia Business School professor Laura Veldkamp discuss recent liquidity crises, portfolio strategies for managing tail risks, and why tighter monetary policies could expose cracks in the financial system. For more on this topic, PGIM's 2022 Global Risk Report analyzes the results of our tail-risk survey, which canvassed 400 senior decision-makers whose firms have a combined AUM of more than $12 trillion.

The Canada Pension Plan has prospered by investing in alternative markets such as private equity and debt, becoming a model for institutional investors around the world. Today, global pools of private capital stand at over $12 trillion, doubling in just six years. In this episode, PGIM COO Taimur Hyat and economist Josh Lerner from Harvard Business School offer unique perspectives into the factors driving growth in private markets, current investment opportunities, and the outlook for private markets as interest rates rise.

The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy has created opportunities to invest in a broad array of green technologies. However, this evolution will be decades in the making with plenty of twists along the way. As the emergence of green energy takes shape, how can investors tap into renewables as well as underinvested corners of the traditional energy sector? In this episode, environmental activist and investor Tom Steyer, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies' James Henderson, and PGIM Private Capital's Brian Thomas discuss the portfolio implications and challenges associated with the energy transition.

The first experiment in quantitative easing ended in failure for 18th-century France. Is this a lesson for modern times? After years of ultra-low interest rates, central banks are tightening monetary policy to combat rampant inflation - a shift that has ignited volatility and depressed asset prices. With a sea change in interest rates underway, where can investors turn to bolster their portfolios? In this episode, PGIM Quantitative Solutions' Ed Campbell and financial historian and author Edward Chancellor discuss the pitfalls of low rates and the investment outlook for a new era.

The economy has undergone a massive transformation in a short period of time. Global lockdowns and the policy response to the pandemic have rippled through labor markets and supply chains, while war in Europe has added fuel to inflation's surge. As the economy continues to evolve, what investment opportunities lie ahead? How will recent trends in technology, energy and business play out? Rob Kaplan and Adam Tooze join PGIM Fixed Income's Ellen Gaske to analyze how the global economy is changing and consider what the future might hold for investors.