Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a two-month low last week, a sign of sustained labor-market strength ahead of Friday’s release of a nonfarm payroll report for August. U.S Treasury yields are rising, with the two-year touching its highest level since 2007. Mortgage rates are also climbing, reaching a two-month high. And the CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 76% probability of a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. At the same time, some data suggest the Fed’s efforts are having their intended effect – that inflation may indeed have been “transitory.” Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the yield market and the phases of the 2021-23 Fed reaction function. Darius thinks we’re in the third phase, where interest rates will stay higher for longer. So, what comes next? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept it short and sour last Friday, and stocks have fallen in all four trading sessions since he re-announced his hawkishness with authority at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. With traders pricing in a 75-basis-point rate hike in September, the path forward for the U.S. seems a little less fraught than the one facing Europe, where rationing and recession loom in consequence of the continent’s energy crisis. That’s with inflation rising to a fresh record in August and virtually goading the European Central Bank into its own major rate hike when it meets next week. Imran Lakh, the founder and CEO of Options Insight, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about volatility and how to trade it using options. We also hear from Dario Perkins about the short-, medium-, and long-term outlook for bonds amid a time of historic uncertainty. Watch the full conversation between Dario Perkins and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3KqkvBL. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Did you miss Raoul Pal's Live AMA on YouTube? Well, you're in luck, because today we're releasing the whole thing. Sit back and enjoy a community coming together for a deep conversation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Europe’s energy crisis is getting worse, stoking inflation as well as fear of “conflict and strife” on the continent. Euro-area economic confidence dropped to a 19-month low in August, as France accused Russia of using natural gas as a “weapon of war.” Recent price action suggests investors are pricing in the demand impact on energy markets. Still, with European policymakers desperately seeking long-term solutions, the nuclear option is back on the table. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the energy crisis in Europe, the policy choices that contributed to it, what can be done now to fix things for the future, and how we can trade it. We also hear from Mark Nelson about why nuclear power will save Europe. Watch the full video featuring Mark Nelson and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3cu9tiy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes followed Bitcoin lower at Monday’s open, trading well in the red as investors continued to price in Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s short but stern message that the central bank will tighten monetary policy until inflation is beaten. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note surged to a 15-year high, and we’re now witnessing the deepest inversion between the two-year and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note in more than 20 years. And September – historically the worst month for stocks – is just around the corner. “Tightening should only worsen the potential for a major breakage in credit,” notes Mark Ritchie II, “and the Fed’s refusal to pivot in the short run should produce some more potential fireworks to the downside.” Ritchie II, a managing partner at RTM Capital, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the epic battle brewing between bears and bulls and whether U.S. stocks are going to make another run at the lows. We also hear from Vincent Deluard about the energy crisis in Europe. Watch the full conversation featuring Vincent Deluard and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3PX0mEz. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. On this riveting episode of The Next Big Trade, Alex Gurevich, the founder and chief investment officer of HonTe Investments, joins host Harry Melandri to explain how he’s playing the long game and why max-duration bonds are his vehicle of choice to ride out prevailing macroeconomic and geopolitical crosswinds and a potential global downturn. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. James Altucher has been to hell and back. On the morning of September 11, 2001, James was just three blocks away from Ground Zero when two hijacked airplanes flew into the Twin Towers. He was one of the few who witnessed both impacts, and that led to years of post-traumatic stress disorder. He also went broke and lost everything. But he rebounded and found new success. James talks to Maggie Lake about the importance of resilience and open-mindedness when it comes to trading and investing and why he writes down 10 ideas every morning. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke for eight minutes, offered three lessons, and generated one takeaway: “No pivot,” as Jim Bianco tweeted. The central bank will tighten monetary policy “until the job is done,” with Powell essentially promising pain for investors and workers alike. U.S. Treasury yields spiked and equity indexes sagged after the Fed Chair floated his short but stinging statement. Bianco, the founder of Bianco Research, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how far the Fed is willing to go to get what it wants and whether today’s data on July personal income and spending, including a decline in the Fed’s most-favored inflation gauge, is a sign it’s actually happening. Powell foreshadowed tough times, but the Fed and its acolytes have also said a potential recession will be short and shallow. So, is “short and shallow” the new “transitory”? And what in the world is happening in Europe, as German consumer confidence falls to an all-time low? We also hear from Dario Perkins about how the Fed can still pull off a “soft-ish” landing. Watch the full conversation between Dario Perkins and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3KqkvBL. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Did you know the foreign exchange market is the largest in the world, with more than $5 trillion traded every single day? Brent Donnelly, the president of Spectra Markets, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to break down everything that’s happening in forex right now. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia surged to near-record highs Wednesday, as the worst energy crisis in decades intensifies amid increasingly desperate competition for supplies. And Europe’s fertilizer crunch tightened after a major manufacturer cut output due to soaring costs – driven by natural gas prices. With twin humanitarian crises looming, Tony Greer tweeted, “Does anyone in Europe have a plan?” Tony, the founder of TG Macro, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about energy, food, and what, if anything, all those central bankers gathering for the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium can do to stave off a global catastrophe. We also hear from Adrian Day about “Dr. Copper” and what its supply-and-demand dynamic can tell us about economic growth. Watch the full video featuring Adrian Day and Larry McDonald here: https://rvtv.io/3dZ9N9n. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices