The Trialogue

This week, our guest is Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the PLA and a senior fellow in the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University. We discuss China’s military presence in Africa, the Houthis, Ukraine, Taiwan, and the South China Sea.Time Stamps:00:44 Zhou Bo’s studies in England and Australia03:23 Chinese military relations with Africa07:04 The Houthis and the Red Sea09:44 How many military bases does Beijing need?21:19 Ukraine26:31 Trump’s approach to China in his second term30:03 Taiwan39:20 The South China Sea*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.

This week, our guest is Philani Mthembu, Executive Director at the Institute for Global Dialogue in Pretoria. We discuss the South African perspective on the war in Ukraine, China, and BRICS.Time Stamps: 01:19 How many languages do you speak?01:58 What is the purpose of the Institute for Global Dialogue?03:29 What has changed since the ANC lost its majority?05:12 To what extent are relations with the US and Russia shaped by the legacies of the liberation movement?14:09 South African reaction to Ukraine’s rejection of its Soviet past15:36 What is the South African attitude toward the war in Ukraine?28:00 How is China perceived in South Africa?36:46 Philani’s experience as a student in China42:12 South Africa’s vision for BRICS48:26 What is the logic of BRICS expansion?53:20 How does BRICS seek to reform the international financial architecture?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.

This week, our guest is Dmitry Stefanovich, a research fellow at the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences. We discuss recent revisions to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, deterrence during the war in Ukraine, Russian red lines, and the evolution of Chinese nuclear policy.Time Stamps:00:01:39 Dmitry’s Odesa origins and involvement in the Sochi Olympics00:04:08 Deterrence during the Ukraine war00:08:39 When were we closest to nuclear use?00:11:30 Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine00:20:05 US nuclear doctrine in the first Trump administration00:26:05 What is the point of nuclear doctrines?00:29:27 Karaganov and the Russian domestic debate about nuclear use00:33:32 US and Russian mutual misperceptions00:36:10 Russian red lines00:40:42 China’s nuclear policy*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.

This week, our guest is Daniel Bessner, Associate Professor in American Foreign Policy in the Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies at the University of Washington and non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. We discuss Trump, American empire, Washington’s Asian fixation, and the possibility of “mutual ruin of the contending classes” among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:01:12 Childhood interest in history00:03:45 The US foreign policy ecosystem and the effectiveness of the Quincy intervention00:06:48 Progressive foreign policy during Trump part two00:09:30 Marxism and other influences00:10:58 Origins of the American empire00:11:56 The US was never isolationist00:13:32 The US v other British settler colonies00:14:54 Trump isn’t fascist, he’s a 1980s New Yorker00:17:37 Has the state become too complex to control?00:20:00 Why the US is an  empire00:21:34 American imperial decline and the “Pivot to Asia”00:25:48 How are Russia and China seen from DC00:27:23 Climate change and mutual ruin*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

This week, our guest is Zhang Xin, Deputy Director of the Center for Russian Studies at East China Normal University. We discuss the history of Russia studies in the PRC, the Sino-Russian border area, and the logic of the US-China-Russia triangular relationship, among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:00:51 Grad school at UCLA and interest in Russia00:02:45 First visit to Moscow in 200500:05:04 History of Soviet/Russia studies in PRC00:12:24 Impressions from most recent trip to Russia00:14:35 Russian interest in creating new partnerships in China00:17:47 Sino-Russian border area00:24:10 Harbin00:27:24 Resolution of Sino-Russian border disputes00:31:33 The US-China-Russia Triangle00:37:21 Difference in Chinese and Russian conceptions of Eurasian space00:40:10 Global West - Global East - Global South*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

This week, our guest is Akram Umarov, First Vice Rector at the University of World Economy and Diplomacy and Deputy Director of the Institute for Advanced International Studies in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. We discuss Central Asian politics, Uzbekistan’s attitude toward the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the country’s relations with Russia, China, and the USA, among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:01:00 Fluency in four languages as a child in Samarkand00:02:54 Graduate studies in the West00:06:43 Institute for Advanced International Studies00:09:47 Japan’s interest in Central Asia00:11:30 Relations among Central Asian countries00:18:54 Shanghai Cooperation Organization00:24:09 Uzbekistan’s relations with Russia00:36:26 Uzbekistan’s relations with China00:45:03 Will China and Russia compete in Central Asia?00:48:03 Uzbekistan’s relations with the US*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

This week, our guest is Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. We discuss the origins of “isolationism,” historical hypotheticals, the United States’ relative interests in the Middle East, Europe and Asia, Ukraine and Taiwan, and an “America first” policy for the Democratic party, among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:00:45 PhD in history and pivot to policy00:07:38 Charges of “isolationism” from the 1930s through Trump00:15:54 Should the US have done anything differently during WWII or the Cold War?00:19:43 The collapse of the Communist bloc and American primacy unbound00:25:00 Need to draw down in the Middle East00:26:48 Let Europeans take greater charge of their own security00:36:00 How should the US react to the rise of China00:41:12 Taiwan and Ukraine00:51:47 An “America first” policy for the Democratic party*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

This week, our guest is Dmitry Novikov, Deputy Head of the School of International Relations at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, Russia. We discuss the difficulties of being an Americanist in Moscow, the sources of US-Russian conflict, and Russia’s future as a “Eurasian” power, among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:00:38 What is like being an Americanist in Moscow right now?00:04:22 Russian perceptions of US domestic politics00:08:44 Russia’s “realist” understanding of international relations00:10:51 Russia’s efforts to join the West00:20:05 Russia as a Eurasian state00:23:20 When did Russia begin to pivot East?00:28:08 Russia as logistics corridor, security provider, and source of raw materials00:39:17 Need for stabilization with the West00:44:00 A new Russian identity?00:49:13 The growing importance of Islam in Russia00:53:00 The Cold War “lessons” that drive US and Russian elites*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

My guest today is DA Wei, Professor of International Relations and Director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University. We discuss Wei’s time at CICIR and Tsinghua, his recent visits to the US and Russia, Taiwan and the South China Sea, and the potential positives of partial decoupling, among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:00:49 What is CICIR00:04:13 Tsinghua’s Center for International Security and Strategy00:09:03 Impressions from recent trip to US00:11:16 Potential consequences of Harris or Trump presidencies for China00:14:26 Is chaos in the US good for China?00:15:49 Sources of US-China competition00:21:29 Impressions from recent trip to Russia00:26:15 Comparison of US-China and US-Russia relations00:30:35 Consequences of COVID00:33:06 Potential positives of decoupling00:40:0 Taiwan and South China Sea*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

This week, our guest is Charles Kupchan, Professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. We discuss Charlie’s first visits to China and the Soviet Union, naiveté and NATO expansion in the 1990s, the dangers of the current conflict with Russia and China, the possibility of a new American foreign policy paradigm, global interdependence, and an endgame in Ukraine.Time Stamps:00:01:06 First trip to China in 198000:06:45 Trip to the Soviet Union and Poland in the early 80s00:10:13 Naiveté in the 1990s00:15:23 The dangers of current conflict with Russia and China00:19:44 Pivot to Asia?00:32:31 New US foreign policy paradigm?00:43:10 Global interdependence00:50:02 Maintain channels of communication with Russia and China00:52:20 Endgame in Ukraine*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.