The Trialogue

This episode is a recording of a live event held online on April 8. Lanxin Xiang, Andrey Kortunov, and Emma Ashford joined me to discuss the state of theUS-Russia-China trilateral relationship.*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Reinhard Krumm of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung joins us to discuss Germany’s reversal on Russia and a new American Ostpolitik.Time Stamps:00:54 What is the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung?02:00 How was Vance’s Munich speech received in Germany?06:49 What is the future of the trans-Atlantic relationship?16:45 Is Germany sovereign?21:40 Nord Stream26:17 German Ostpolitik since the 60s31:23 Maidan and the Minsk agreements39:22 Can Germany negotiate with Russia?48:39 How real is the Russian threat to Europe?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Writer Christopher Caldwell joins us to discuss the legacy of Ronald Reagan, the rise of a “New Right,” and the fate of the West.Time Stamps:00:56 What is the New Right?12:53 Revisiting Reagan’s legacy17:24 Trump’s revolution20:43 US foreign policy since Reagan25:55 Whither the West33:43 Immigration in Europe and the US38:10 Russia and China42:16 The limits of American autarchy?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Zhao Long, Deputy Director of the Institute for Global Strategic and Security Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies. We discuss the prospects of the US splitting Russia from China and China peeling Europe away from the US, among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:55 Is Beijing worried about a US-Russia rapprochement?24:36 Can China profit from a transatlantic rift?34:24 What part will China play in a Ukraine settlement?40:22 What lessons did Beijing draw from the Trump-Zelensky spat in the Oval Office?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Anastasia Likhacheva, Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. Time Stamps:01:48 Studying sanctions since 201603:27 Nord Stream and the abrupt change in European attitudes after February 20226:22 Western companies leaving (and returning) to Russia after February 20228:52 Inability of both Western and Russian experts to correctly predict the trajectory of the Russian economy after the application of sanctions13:40 “We started to pivot to the East before it was fashionable”16:57 Sanctions don’t work if third countries don’t cooperate21:23 The future of sanctions24:04 Prospects of sanctions relief32:10 Economic beneficiaries of external sanctions34:24 Continued Russian tourism in Europe35:46 A new generation of Russian elites39:58 How do your students see the world?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs, Professor at the Higher School of Economics, and Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. What is it like to sit on stage with Putin? When did relations with the West go wrong? And what in the world is the “world majority”?Time Stamps:00:53 Moderating Putin’s Q&A sessions06:24 Perestroika and the unresolved debate about Russia’s role14:18 When did relations with the West go wrong?20:58 How has your professional life changed since February 2022?23:32 “World majority,” “multipolar world,” and “civilization state”32:31 Islam, immigration, and downward demographic trends*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Andrew Roth, Global Affairs Correspondent at The Guardian. We discuss the twists and turns of Andrew’s ten-year career as a reporter in Moscow. Time Stamps:03:12 Arrival in Russia in 201108:04 The 2012 protests12:39 Foreign journalists in Moscow23:02 Reporting in East Ukraine in 2014-1635:25 Covering Zelensky45:30 Edward Snowden49:19 Evan Gershkovich57:27 Washington’s China obsession*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the PLA and a senior fellow in the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University. We discuss China’s military presence in Africa, the Houthis, Ukraine, Taiwan, and the South China Sea.Time Stamps:00:44 Zhou Bo’s studies in England and Australia03:23 Chinese military relations with Africa07:04 The Houthis and the Red Sea09:44 How many military bases does Beijing need?21:19 Ukraine26:31 Trump’s approach to China in his second term30:03 Taiwan39:20 The South China Sea*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Philani Mthembu, Executive Director at the Institute for Global Dialogue in Pretoria. We discuss the South African perspective on the war in Ukraine, China, and BRICS.Time Stamps: 01:19 How many languages do you speak?01:58 What is the purpose of the Institute for Global Dialogue?03:29 What has changed since the ANC lost its majority?05:12 To what extent are relations with the US and Russia shaped by the legacies of the liberation movement?14:09 South African reaction to Ukraine’s rejection of its Soviet past15:36 What is the South African attitude toward the war in Ukraine?28:00 How is China perceived in South Africa?36:46 Philani’s experience as a student in China42:12 South Africa’s vision for BRICS48:26 What is the logic of BRICS expansion?53:20 How does BRICS seek to reform the international financial architecture?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Dmitry Stefanovich, a research fellow at the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences. We discuss recent revisions to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, deterrence during the war in Ukraine, Russian red lines, and the evolution of Chinese nuclear policy.Time Stamps:00:01:39 Dmitry’s Odesa origins and involvement in the Sochi Olympics00:04:08 Deterrence during the Ukraine war00:08:39 When were we closest to nuclear use?00:11:30 Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine00:20:05 US nuclear doctrine in the first Trump administration00:26:05 What is the point of nuclear doctrines?00:29:27 Karaganov and the Russian domestic debate about nuclear use00:33:32 US and Russian mutual misperceptions00:36:10 Russian red lines00:40:42 China’s nuclear policy*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.