The Trialogue

Samuel Charap, Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy at RAND, joins us to discuss US policy toward Russia since 2008, the war in Ukraine, and the prospects of a settlement.*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps:00:40 How did you get interested in Russia?01:59 US-Russia relations since 200811:05 EU-Russia relations15:41 The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine18:32 The Biden administration’s Ukraine policy 25:27 Should we have tried to negotiate sooner?27:21 Has Trump made a deal more likely?30:01 Is there a window for a deal in the fall?33:16 How should negotiations be structured?37:42 How far apart are US and Russian positions?40:44 How to best combine carrots and sticks44:04 Prospects of US-Russia normalization

Maksim Suchkov, Director of the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO University in Moscow, joins us to discuss direct Russia-Ukraine talks, US-Russia relations, and Russia’s own “revolution of common sense”.*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps:01:08 Evaluate the Russia-Ukraine talks and the Trump-Putin phone call03:17 Why does Russia oppose an immediate ceasefire?08:08 What are Russia’s core objectives?10:54 What kind of military caps does the Kremlin want to put on Kyiv?13:56 Three scenarios for US policy19:43 Russian and Chinese perspectives on Europe23:05 Russia as a conservative “civilization-state”26:00 A positive US-Russia bilateral agenda35:27 How long will the Trump movement last?42:40 Ukraine v US-Russia normalization45:51 What kind of Europe does Russia want?51:46 Predictions for the summer

Emma Ashford, a Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center, dives into the complexities of U.S. foreign policy, discussing the concept of restraint and military overextension. She examines the historical lessons from Britain’s imperial past and how they influence current American strategies against threats from Russia and China. Ashford also unpacks the significance of the Anglosphere and transatlantic alliances, while exploring the challenges in supporting Ukraine amidst geopolitical tensions and the need for flexible, pragmatic approaches in an increasingly multipolar world.

Da Wei, Director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, joins us to discuss tariffs, the prospects of a trade deal, Russia’s global role, and the coming multipolar order. Time Stamps:00:53 Was China prepared for Trump’s tariffs?02:55 Does Washington want to decouple from China or rebalance trade?08:49 Is the US improvising or following a plan?11:57 What can China do to influence US policy?15:49 Can China invest in the US? 20:46 Increasing domestic consumption in China30:25 Can trade and Taiwan be linked?35:20 Russia’s position in the world43:26 What will multipolarity look like?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.

Robert Agee, President of AmCham Russia, joins us to discuss American business in Russia since the 90s, who left and how after the start of the war in Ukraine, who suffered and benefited from Western sanctions, and the outlook for American (and Chinese) business in Russia going forward.Time Stamps:00:45 What is AmCham?02:29 How did you end up at Xerox in Russia in the 90s?04:58 American business in Russia until 202211:09 What businesses left after the start of the war and how?21:12 Who benefited from the departure of Western companies?25:11 The Chinese takeover of the Russian automotive sector29:48 Business under sanctions35:17 How changes should be made to US sanctions?40:36 Is the Russian market actually all that enticing?44:13 Should we let China dominate the Russian market?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.

Alexander Dynkin and Feodor Voitolovsky, President and Director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations at the Russian Academy of Sciences, join us to discuss their return to Washington, the war in Ukraine, and Sino-Russian relations, among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:59 Returning to Washington for the first time since 201903:28 Will US-Russia relations improve under Trump?09:39 The possibility of three-way strategic arms control among the US, Russia, and China11:45 The future of bilateral US-Russia strategic arms control15:00 The war in Ukraine19:43 “Denazification” and Russian historical memory23:18 Russia’s biggest mistake in Ukraine25:46 Likelihood of future Russia-Ukraine reconciliation29:57 Humanitarian issues related to a Ukrainian settlement31:25 History of national borders in the former Russian empire34:51 Sino-Russian relations*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.

This episode is a recording of a live event held online on April 8. Lanxin Xiang, Andrey Kortunov, and Emma Ashford joined me to discuss the state of theUS-Russia-China trilateral relationship.*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.

Reinhard Krumm of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung joins us to discuss Germany’s reversal on Russia and a new American Ostpolitik.Time Stamps:00:54 What is the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung?02:00 How was Vance’s Munich speech received in Germany?06:49 What is the future of the trans-Atlantic relationship?16:45 Is Germany sovereign?21:40 Nord Stream26:17 German Ostpolitik since the 60s31:23 Maidan and the Minsk agreements39:22 Can Germany negotiate with Russia?48:39 How real is the Russian threat to Europe?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.

Writer Christopher Caldwell joins us to discuss the legacy of Ronald Reagan, the rise of a “New Right,” and the fate of the West.Time Stamps:00:56 What is the New Right?12:53 Revisiting Reagan’s legacy17:24 Trump’s revolution20:43 US foreign policy since Reagan25:55 Whither the West33:43 Immigration in Europe and the US38:10 Russia and China42:16 The limits of American autarchy?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.

This week, our guest is Zhao Long, Deputy Director of the Institute for Global Strategic and Security Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies. We discuss the prospects of the US splitting Russia from China and China peeling Europe away from the US, among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:55 Is Beijing worried about a US-Russia rapprochement?24:36 Can China profit from a transatlantic rift?34:24 What part will China play in a Ukraine settlement?40:22 What lessons did Beijing draw from the Trump-Zelensky spat in the Oval Office?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.