The Memo by Howard Marks

In the latest episode of Behind the Memo, Howard discusses the origins and important themes of his recent memo, The Pendulum in International Affairs. Howard explains why one of his favorite metaphors – the pendulum – can help investors understand psychology, markets and foreign policy.You can listen to The Pendulum in International Affairs in the prior episode or read it here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/the-pendulum-in-intl-affairs.pdf?sfvrsn=53b17666_7).

Howard Marks’s latest memo connects two seemingly unrelated trends – Europe’s energy dependence and U.S. offshoring – to explain why the pendulum of companies’ and countries’ behavior may be swinging away from globalization and toward onshoring. This shift will likely create risk for investors but also opportunities.The memo is read by LJ Ganser.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/the-pendulum-in-intl-affairs.pdf).

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on June 20, 2012. He discusses why understanding mistakes – both your own and others’ – is key to superior investing.  He’s joined by Bob O’Leary, Global Co-Portfolio Manager of Oaktree’s Global Opportunities strategy.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2012-06-20-its-all-a-big-mistake.pdf?sfvrsn=17bb0f65_2).The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

Listen to the first episode of our new series Behind the Memo, in which Howard breaks down his latest memo, discussing its origins, themes and key insights. In Selling Out, published on January 13, 2022, Howard explains why staying invested is usually the most important thing. You can listen to Selling Out in the prior episode or read it here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/selling-out).

Howard Marks’s latest memo considers one of investing’s most fundamental questions: when to sell. Howard explains that it’s foolish to sell because prices are up and because they’re down – and why, most of the time, staying invested is ultimately “the most important thing.”You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/selling-out). The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on May 11, 2020.  Writing near the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis, he discusses the power of saying “I don’t know” and the danger of confirmation bias.  Drawing on the insights of thinkers from Voltaire to Albert Einstein, Howard explains why he believes having intellectual humility is essential for outstanding investing.   You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/uncertainty.pdf).The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

The last 20 months have taught us to question everything. What is the future of work? Can American democracy survive? Will Baby Boomers keep consuming more than their fair share? And what comes after “trillion”? Howard Marks’s latest memo examines paradigm shifts that could reshape the economy, markets and the world for many years to come. (November 23, 2021)You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/thewindsofchange.pdf)The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on January 19, 2016. In the second episode of a two-part series, he discusses the problems with taking advice from the market. But he also draws on insights from his latest memo, Thinking About Macro, to consider what it means when the market does get it right.

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on January 14, 2016. In the first of a two-part series, he analyzes investors’ irrationality and discusses why things that are obvious in investing are usually wrong.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/on-the-couch.pdf).The memo is read by LJ Ganser.

Howard reflects on this memo originally published on May 7, 2004. In a discussion that namechecks both psychologist Amos Tversky and tennis great Pete Sampras, Howard explains why too much confidence can be a dangerous thing.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2004-05-07-us-and-them.pdf).The memo is read by LJ Ganser.