Sound Investing

In this engaging interview, Paul talks with Stan The Annuity Man on his “Fun with Annuities” podcast. (https://www.stantheannuityman.com/). They discuss: The seven big things you need to know about investment Putting children on a glide path Avoiding market-timing Investing is simple Key Takeaways: Figure out a way to identify what equity asset classes you should have and figure out how to put them together. Everyone needs a glide path, and in theory, it starts when a child is born. Parents and grandparents must immediately take steps to put their children on a glide path – all equities while they’re young and more fixed income as they get older. Don’t panic. If you want to be a successful long-term investor, you have to stay the course. Don’t market time; you might be able to avoid losses short-term, but you will pay the price in the long term. Investing is simple, but it takes faith in the system. It is easy to set it and forget it if you can keep your hands off the trigger. Winning in investing means thinking defensively, not aggressively.

Paul Merriman and Chris Pedersen, Director of Research for The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, address a number of topics and questions: •  Is the combination of the S&P 500 and Small Cap Value really more risky than the S&P by itself? •  Why the exceptional performance of Chris’ Best In Class (BIC) during the first 6 months of 2022? •  If small and value outperformed large and growth, why did the Total Market Index underperformed the S&P 500 by more than 1%? •  Are the higher costs of the Avantis Funds likely to pay a higher premium than lower cost Vanguard funds? •  A first time investor, who has invested in Avantis Small Cap Value ETF “for life,” wants to know, “Can I plan on leaving it in this fund forever?” •  Jeff, a follower of our Foundation’s work, thanks us for our educational material but states that “the past results you spend so much time reviewing” have nothing to do with how he invests. Paul addresses who he thinks is actually keeping Jeff committed to his asset allocation. •  Is it better to own mid-cap funds instead of a combination of small- and large-cap funds?  Paul and Chris each share their beliefs in response to this common question. Much of this podcast/video is focused on a discussion of DFA and Avantis ETFs. Using both Portfolio Visualizer and Morningstar websites, Chris explains the major factor differences. (Podcast listeners: This section is more meaningful if viewed on the Youtube video). Chris recommends Rob Burger’s video discussion of Avantis Small-Cap Value.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdShSQcScsk Rob Berger, lawyer, investor, podcaster, blogger and author of Retire Before Mom & Dad, is one of our Truth Tellers and we will be writing about him in the coming months. Since 2007, Rob has run the financial blog doughroller.net and contributed to Forbes, US News, AOL, and Business Insider and been featured in HuffPost. For more on Chris’ research results for the first 6 months of 2022, see The Worst Bear Market Ever Sound Investing Portfolios Chart

While the headlines have focused on the first 6 months of 2022 as “The Worst First 6 Months of the Last 50 Years!”,  the reality is that well-diversified investors have suffered modest losses.  In this podcast, Paul reviews the major losses of growth stocks, cryptocurrencies, and barely bear market losses in the major indices, as well as the returns of the Best-In-Class (BIC) returns for all of the major asset classes. The good news is in both the equity and bond markets, the BIC performed better than the averages. The bad news is they were still losses. Paul compares the difference in returns for the average fund in each asset class, each asset class index, and the return of the Best-In-Class ETF recommendations by Chris Pedersen, as well as the BIC ETF recommendations with similar Vanguard ETFs. Bond funds are another area of concern for investors this year and Paul also compares the BIC bond fund returns individually as well as a portfolio, and the returns for the S&P 500 and Total Market Index. See Fine Tuning Tables: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Fine-Tuning-Tables-50-50-2022-1.pdf See Sound Investing Tables: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Sound-Investing-Portfolios.pdf See Best-In-Class ETF Recommendations: https://paulmerriman.com/best-in-class-etf-recommendations/ Read article: "The Worst 6 Months Ever For Financial Markets" by Ben Carlson: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/07/the-worst-6-months-ever-for-financial-markets/

Paul begins this Q&A session with the true story of helping a young relative open an investment account. The good news is a young investor got started but, with the misguided “help" of a Fidelity rep, he made a $250,000 mistake. Learn what happened. Questions: Where can I find an advisor who will work for me virtually? What are your recommendations as we are going into a severe correction? Will you be providing Vanguard recommendations for the Sound Investing Portfolios, including the Worldwide 4-Fund Portfolio? Do you recommend working with Merriman Wealth Management? Why include small-cap blend when that same money could be in small-cap value funds? Under what conditions would you include cryptocurrency in a portfolio? Why don’t you include energy funds in your portfolio? Paul mentions the list of Washington State hourly advisors- Lisa Weil lisa@claritynorthwest.com Tom Nowak info@quantumfinancialplanning.com  Tim Massie tim@timepiecefp.com Katy Cook katy@abacusfinplan.com Trish Howe trish@howefinancialadvisory.com Get your free copy of We’re Talking Millions at: https://paulmerriman.com/signup

Many investors are worried about their future and what’s happening in the markets. In this podcast, Paul focuses on a series of new tables. He believes these tables represent one of the best pieces of historical information for understanding the likely path that your investments will take in the future. They were created by Daryl Bahls, Director of Analytics for The Merriman Financial Education Foundation. See the Tables here: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Sound-Investing-Portfolio-Quilt-Chart-1928-2021-V1.3-1.pdf They provide the picture of five different portfolios over their history from 1928 to 2021: 1. All S&P 500; 2. All Small Cap Value (USSV); 3. All Value (USAV) half Large Cap Value and half Small Cap Value; 4. 4-Fund (US4F) with 25% of each of four major asset classes; 5. 2-Fund strategy (US2F) with half USSV and half S&P 500.

To help answer the many recent emails asking, “What should I do next?” Paul offers his “sound investing" ideas. He begins with a reference to a a recording by JL Collins  in 2019, titled "A Guided Meditation for When the Stock Market Is Dropping," (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOGU94eL07E), and then walks you through the importance of examining and understanding the historical tables provided at his Foundation’s website (https://paulmerriman.com). He also shares information that relates to JL Collins' view of the future and how his view differs, as is meaningfully illustrated in the accumulation tables for the same portfolios. See link to the Fine Tuning Your Asset Allocation table for the S&P 500: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Fine-Tuning-Tables-50-50-2022-1.pdf and https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/12-Fine-Tuning-Tables-70-30-2022.pdf See link to U.S. 4-Fund table:  https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2-4-Fund-Equity-Returns-1928-2021-C.pdf Get your free copy of We’re Talking Millions at: https://paulmerriman.com/signup

What are the challenges facing university graduates, and all young people, entering the work force? Paul addresses students at Western Washington University with clear information on how to become well-informed and successful investors over a lifetime. He warns about the role of emotions and importance of creating an informed investment plan to have more than enough, because life rarely goes according to plan. He explains the huge impact of an additional .5% in annual returns over a lifetime, mutual funds and target date funds, and the steps to follow in his book, We’re Talking Millions—12 Ways To Supercharge Your Retirement and the strategy of “5 Years Can Make You A Multi-Millionaire.” This and much more in this podcast/video. The Powerpoint in the video illustrates many of the concepts. Click here to watch. Read the article: “Save like mad for five years—retire with millions” Watch the video: “How A 5 Year Investment Can Make You A Millionaire” Listen to the podcast, “5 years of investing and you can become a multi-millionaire” Get your free copy of We’re Talking Millions at: https://paulmerriman.com/signup

In this new presentation, Paul addresses seven of the biggest investment decisions, provides a brief history of investing and makes predictions for the future. Through the evolution of Wall Street, he shows what savvy investors believe today in terms of saving on fees, diversification and asset class investments, and he elaborates on recommended portfolios and how “5 years can make you a multi-millionaire!”   This was presented to Bainbridge Island’s Oatmeal Club, of which Paul is a member. The Oatmeal Club is a group that’s been meeting weekly on Bainbridge Island for 40 years to share “stimulating conversation, intellectual presentations and, before Zoom, a real oatmeal breakfast.”   You can read more about The Oatmeal Club here: https://theislandwanderer.com/bainbridges-oatmeal-club-is-the-home-of-stimulating-conversation-intellectual-presentations-and-before-zoom-real-oatmeal/ Watch the accompanying slideshow on the video.

Young investors can build a retirement worth up to $50 million from an investment of just $6,000 per year for the first 5 years of contributions to a Roth IRA or Roth 401(k).  Paul Merriman, Chris Pedersen and Daryl Bahls show you how — with or without the help of parents or grandparents.  Paul discusses a strategy for young children that requires monthly contributions of just $25 to fund the $6,000 investment in early-Roth IRA or Roth 401(k), and each shares his recommendation for young investors after the first 5 years.  They address the challenge of getting a young investor to “stay the course” when the market is in decline, and Paul shares the story of an uncle who requires three promises from family members he helps get started in investing for retirement.  Referenced Links:  “5 Years Can Make You a Multi-Millionaire” shows the impact of an all-equity portfolio using Small Cap Value or a 50/50 balance of Small Cap Value and the S&P 500.  This new table shows the percentage of time that Small Cap Value makes long term returns of 12% to more than 14%.  See video, “How To Use Portfolio Visualizer” by Chris Pedersen  Watch this as a video.

This is MUST LISTEN presentation for everyone yet to claim Social Security and/or survivor benefits, and otherwise learn how to maximize your benefits. MaryBeth Franklin, author of Maximizing Social Security Retirement Benefits, shares her expertise in this interview with Paul Merriman and answers a number of viewer questions. This presentation is part of Financial Literacy Month, sponsored by the Bainbridge Community Foundation (https://bainbridgecf.org/) and The Merriman Financial Education Foundation (https://paulmerriman.com/the-merriman-financial-education-foundation/) You’ll learn: • How claiming age affects the amount of Social Security benefits received by retirees and their surviving spouses; • How earnings from a job can reduce benefits if claimed before full retirement age • Strategies to reverse early claiming decisions and create larger future benefits. Links mentioned in the presentation: Mary Beth interview with retirement researcher Wade Pfau, titled, “Retirement income strategies for 2022 and beyond”:  https://retirement-repair-shop-with-mary-beth-franklin.simplecast.com/episodes/retirement-income-strategies-for-2022-and-beyond-DeARkylF Mary Beth interview with Joe Elsasser, founder of Covisum, discussing Social Security’s solvency, possible reforms, taxes and benefit strategies. Covisum has a free calculator to help people make better decisions on when to start taking Social Security. https://www.investmentnews.com/podcasts/retirement_repair_shop_mbf/joe_elsasser Here is a link to her book, Maximizing Social Security Retirement Benefits:www.maximizingsocialsecuritybenefits.com Which covers: – The ABC's of claiming Social Security – How Social Security benefits are taxed – What survivors need to know to maximize their benefits – What claiming strategies are disappearing for most new retirees – How recent changes to Social Security claiming rules affect married couples and divorced spouses – Plus, much more including new rules & strategies to help maximize benefits