

NAB Morning Call
Phil Dobbie
Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Episodes
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Feb 28, 2023 • 14min
Europe’s Inflation Worries
Wednesday 1st March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s a growing concern that inflation is creeping back into Europe. That’s the case in France and Spain, with Germany’s CPI numbers out today and the Euro Area inflation print tomorrow. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets are already pricing in a higher terminal rate, with the ECB’s Philip Lane talking up more rate hikes for longer. So how far will they go? Meanwhile, the Canadian economy has ground to a halt, and NAB has downgraded its forecast for Australian GDP today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Feb 27, 2023 • 15min
EU and UK shake on it
Tuesday 28th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe pound rose sharply higher today on the news that a deal had been struck with the EU over the problems of the UK’s internal trade with Northern Ireland. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets have responded to the pragmatism of Rishi Sunak and the hope that it signals the start of a better future for UK-EU trade down the track. Meanwhile, US equities have bounced back today, even though expectations of a higher Fed terminal rate have settled in to place. Is it those buying the dip or the return of the soft-landing brigade? The drip-feed of EU inflation data will be the focus today, ahead of the full number tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Feb 26, 2023 • 15min
US inflation rebound. What now?
Monday 27th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were shaken on Friday when the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – the core PCE deflator – showed an unexpected bounce back. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it was one of a series of strong numbers at the end of last week, and talks through the implications for the Fed, with some voting members talking of the need to be even more than previously signalled. The news has pushed bond yields higher, particularly at the front end of the curve. Meanwhile equity investors are being forced to question their optimism. And the damage is not restricted to the US with investors wondering whether this week’s European inflation read will tell a similar story. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Feb 23, 2023 • 16min
Jobs and prices – bad news for the Fed
Friday 24th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS GDP has been revised down slightly for Q4. NAB’s Ken Crompton says its been driven by lower than expected consumption numbers. The Fed will also be concerned by the quarterly GDP deflator, which has shown prices rising more than anticipated. Eyes will be on the January numbers for prices and consumption out tonight. To add to the US woes, jobless claims fell last week adding to a string of data suggesting the tightness in the labour market is taking a long time to ease. We’re a week away from non-farm payrolls. Remember the impact last time? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Feb 22, 2023 • 14min
Wages Day
Thursday 23rd February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s not a lot that’s new on the FOMC minutes out this morning, according to NAB’s David de Garis. Several members had talked of higher rate rises, but there wasn’t much too much for investors to change the expected path of hikes this year. But it might be a different story for the RBA with Australian wage inflation lower than expected yesterday. Meanwhile, wages are rising in Japan, higher than the rate of inflation adding extra pressure on the BoJ. And the UK government might increase the rate of public sector pay to try and break the strike deadlock the country is facing. It’s been a wage where wages have been front and centre. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Feb 21, 2023 • 15min
Resilience and hope drives bond yields higher
Wednesday 22nd February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe latest PMI data has shown more resilience in the global economy, with service sector reads significantly exceeding expectations in Europe, the UK and the United States. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about how this will impact central bank decisions, with bond yields rising on these latest findings. Also, the latest inflation numbers from Canada, fighting talk from Putin and Biden, and could the UK be on the brink of a meaningful Northern Ireland border solution? Ahead today Australian wages data and the RBNZ rate decision. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Feb 20, 2023 • 13min
US back to work with the PMIs
Tuesday 21st February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWith the US equity and bond markets closed for President’s Day, trade was thin today and movement was slight. But, with the President choosing to spend his day in Ukraine and China reportedly ready to supply arms to Russia, could a bounce back in world trade be an optimistic outlook? NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks trough the days new releases, including PMIs for Europe, the UK and US, as well as inflation numbers for Canada. Could we see a strong reaction if the Canada numbers are an upside surprise. Plus, will today’s minutes shed any new light on the thinking at the RBA, or did Philip Lowe say it all last week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Feb 19, 2023 • 15min
All quiet for Presidents Day
Monday 20th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABExpect a quiet trading day today with the US enjoying Presidents Day and not much in the way of data releases. Still, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland points out, there’s plenty to look out for later in the week, including the RBNZ’s expected 50 bp rate hike, January’s global PMI numbers, Australian wages and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. In the meantime, the question is, have yields peaked? Friday saw 10-year Treasury yields pull back a little, although 2 years are clinging to 4.6% and six month treasury notes sat above 5% for most of the day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Feb 16, 2023 • 16min
Misleading jobs numbers and more signs inflation is hard to beat
Friday 17th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS Treasury yields pushed higher overnight as producer prices came in with a surprise month on month rise, whilst weekly jobs data shows only slight moves in the easing of the labour market. NAB’s Ken Crompton says there’s nothing to distract from the hawkish path being taken by the Fed, that was reinforced by Loretta Mester overnight, who expects rates to exceed 5 percent and stay there for some time. Meanwhile, in Australia yesterday’s employment numbers might be a headache for Philip Lowe when he faces questions in front of House of Reps economics committee. He is bound to be asked why, given such a fall in jobs, the RBA wouldn’t ease of on its rate path. But, as we discuss today, yesterday’s numbers might be a little misleading. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Feb 15, 2023 • 13min
Americans and Aussies spend, whilst UK prices slide
Thursday 16th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS retail numbers for January were strong yesterday, giving no reason for markets to assume the Fed will move from its expected path of hikes following non-farm payrolls earlier in the month. At the same time industrial production was down, but the Empire State manufacturing number was better than expected. NAB’s Gavin Friend says a lot of these variations are weather related, alongside other factors, such as retail inventories. Hence, markets are struggling to get a coherent picture on the real strength of the economy. Australia meanwhile has seen discretionary spending holding up and an expectation that employment numbers will pick up again in figures out today. So, the message seems to be, resilient economies with inflation perhaps taking a bit longer than expected to slow down. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.