NAB Morning Call

Thursday 13th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe headline rate for US inflation fell and for a moment bond yield showed significant falls. But, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, the core readings were less hopeful. It wasn’t long after the release that the Fed’s Thomas Barkin reiterated the need to do more to get inflation down to 2%. But there was some concern amongst the Fed’s ranks at the last FOMC meeting as credit conditions worsened. Could inflation come down by itself? The Bank of Canada is happy to sit it out, keeping rates on hold yesterday and still expecting to reach their 2% target next year. Today the focus is on Australian employment numbers and, perhaps, the weekly jobless claims in the US, which went down last time, suggesting more people in work. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 12th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere will be a lot of focus on the US CPI number tonight, with an expected fall in the headline rate. There could be quite a market response if there are signs that inflation hasn’t peaked. NAB’s Skye asters believes markets still have unrealistically high expectations of rate cuts later in the year, echoing comments that Jerome Powell gave at the last FOMC press conference. We get top read the full minutes of that meeting later today. This morning we also look into yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and Australia’s strong consumer confidence read, which was helped by the RBA’s ‘hold’ decision, again based on the assumption that inflation has peaked. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 11th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s the start of a what could be a volatile short week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it seems markets have taken the non-farm payrolls at face value, seeing no dramatic fall in jobs as a sign that the Fed will stick with its hawkish tilt. But the weekly jobless claims have been revised upwards and there’s other evidence that job layoffs are increasing. As markets adjust to the jobs news, there’s also the anticipation of this week’s US inflation read, and a few major bank earnings results this week too. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 6th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere wasn’t anything subtle about the RBNZ rate move yesterday, so why the sharp contrast with the action – or lack of it- taken by the RBA this week. NAB’s David de Garis looks at potential reasons, and helps to dissect Philip Lowe’s Press Club lunch speech yesterday. Also, more soft data from the US and further signs that non-farm payrolls on Friday could show a move south, easing pressure on the Fed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 5th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe’re not afraid to admit we got it wrong on the RBA, who kept rates on hold yesterday. Unlike a certain US President we are prepared to plead guilty as charged. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains why the bank didn’t move and looks ahead to the next meeting and beyond. Meanwhile, we’re confident the RBNZ will lift rates today. Also today, further signs of softening in the US, including a fall in job openings, with more US employment data out later tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 4th April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices are up on the back of the OPEC+ cuts announced yesterday. That pushed bond yields a little higher. JB Were’s Sally Auld days rising prices could be problematic for central banks if they keep rising, but there current level is unlikely to have much impact. In fact, yields starting falling as US manufacturing data signified a slowdown in the sector, with a fall in the employment index suggesting that maybe non-farm payrolls on Friday will show an easing in the jobs market and help ease future inflation pressures. The key event today of course, is the RBA meeting, where NAB is still forecasting a 25 bp rise. If it doesn’t happen today, it’ll happen next month is the expectation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 3rd April 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABInflation is showing signs of slowing in the US, with a lower than expected Core PCE deflator read on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this was the primary reason for a fall in bond yields on Friday. But models pointing to lower headline inflation driven by lower energy costs will be in need of a revision today, as OPEC+ announce a daily 1.2 million barrel cut in oil production from next month. The announcement was unexpected. It’ll add pressure to European economies, where core inflation rose slightly last month. On todays podcast we look ahead to the RBA and RBNZ this week, and the consequences of the Aston by-election result over the weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 31st March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS banking stocks took a hit overnight as central bankers warned of a credit crunch and Joe Biden called for reforms to regulations. Other shares rose though, even though weekly job numbers showed continued labour market tightness. In Australia job vacancies have fallen a little and NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks about how the bank has revised its call on the rate path for the RBA. Today the focus will be on inflation in Europe and the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 30th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were calm overnight, but NAB’s David de Garis says that doesn’t translate to confidence. The market is still wondering what is round the corner, but he points out that a lot of the concern has been contained within the US. Meanwhile inflation in Australia came in lower than expected yesterday. Does that mean the job is done for the RBA? For the rest of the week inflation numbers will garner the most attention, starting with Germany and Spain today, and the US and the Eurozone tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 29th March 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere wasn’t much happening yesterday and overnight, so markets were relatively calm. The US senate banking committee quizzed the regulator over banking collapses and perhaps reassured markets that the future looked more peaceful. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says we can’t assume nothing else will break as capital is repriced with rising rates. Australian inflation data is released today after a small positive move up in retail sales in February. It’s the last piece of data to feed into the RBA decision next week, with the evidence leaning to a lift either next week or next month. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.