NAB Morning Call

Friday 12th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe BoE has raised rates (not a unanimous decision), but they are also expecting a bit more growth in the economy. We’ll see how that’s tracking with UK GDP numbers out today. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this could be the last one from the BoE, but it really depends on the UK inflation number later in the month. Meanwhile, further signs of softness in the US – where jobless claims rose more than expected – and China, where loans are well below expectations. Banks continue to add to the uncertainty. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 11th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS CPI has come in pretty much as expected, and yet we’ve seen falls in bond yields and increased talk of a Fed pause and rate cuts later in the year. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was no doubt relief that the number didn’t go up. We’re heading in the right direction, albeit at a glacial pace. It’ll be a different story for the BoE this evening, with a 25bp rise expected, but how many more to follow? The ECB is also continuing its campaign of hawkish talk, with 4 more speakers in the next 24 hours. With a Fed on hold and the BoE and ECB still lifting rates, what does this do to the Aussie dollar? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 10th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Australia federal budget last night didn’t contain any surprises. As NAB’s David de Garis explains, it’s clear that Australia’s fiscal position is better than most, but that doesn’t mean inflation is under control. In the US the fiscal position is a particular worry as the debt ceiling could be reached as soon as June 1st and Biden and McCarty are going into talks intent on not budging their positions. Meanwhile, the ECB has been in full-hawk mode, talking up the expectations for rate hikes. Today rings us the most important number of the week – US inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 9th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields continued to rise yesterday and overnight as markets seem to accept a more for longer approach from central banks. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Business Survey yesterday showed that there was a fall in retail prices and final product prices, suggesting, perhaps, that inflation was coming under control. In the US the Senior Loan Officers survey in the US showed that lending conditions were tightening, with am impact on business credit demand. Whilst industrial production in Germany fell further in March, driven down by the automotive sector. It’ll be interesting to see how weak data like these impacts on the attitudes of the ECB, with Lane, Vasle and Rehn all talking over the next day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 8th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA surprise increase in US jobs on Friday but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it probably won’t have scuppered expectations for a pause by the FOMC, unless there’s an unpleasant surprise in US inflation numbers this week. The question is, how much of the work of the Fed will now be done by the credit crunch? That makes today’s US Senior Loan Officers Survey particularly important. Also on today’s podcast, a look ahead to the BoE and a look back at Friday’s Statement of Monetary Policy from the RBA and why Aussie home loan commitments have picked up so much. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe ECB has lifted rates by 25 basis points and the expectation that there is more to come. NAB’s David de Garis said Christine Lagarde did raise concerns about credit tightening, but there was no suggestion of how that would change the rate path for the bank. Meanwhile, PacWest Bancorp looks likely to be the next US bank to disappear, with questions over how many other regional banks will follow. That uncertainty has led to a fourth day of falls in US shares. US payrolls are the main focus tonight, after data yesterday showed jobs are holding up, with wages still growing, and productivity falling. The Fed, obviously, wants to see none of those things. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 4th May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe FOMC has met, lifted rates and there are suggestions of a pause. NAB’s Gavin Friend says its all down the removal of one the line from the policy statement: “some additional policy increases might be appropriate”. With that gone there was an immediate assumption that the Fed will stop lifting rates, but Jerome Powell seemed a lot less dovish in the press conference that followed. Listen in for a rundown of the decision and the takeouts from what followed. Next, it’s the ECB, which is also expected to lift rates by 25 basis points. But how much of the path is now determined by bank credit tightening, rather than traditional economic data like inflation and jobs? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 3rd May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA’s decision to lift rates seems to have kicked off a turbulent period on global markets. The US kicked off with big drops in oil prices, plunging share prices and rising bond yields. Not because eof the RBA. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks us through the uncertainty in the US on the eve of the FOMC meeting, with more bank worries and falling US job openings – with fewer quits and more layoffs. The ECB meeting isn’t far behind. We digest the latest inflation numbers for the Eurozone. And on the RBA, was that the last rise, or has it laid the path for more? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 2nd May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets seemed unperturbed by the demise of another US commercial bank. NAB’s Skye Masters says the mood in bond markets is risk positive, perhaps because the FDIOC stepped in and negotiated a sale to JP Morgan. Markets were also influenced by the US ISM manufacturing read, which showed a rise in prices and employment. The ECB will be interested in the Euro area core inflation read today, whilst the RBA will almost certainly keep rates on hold. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 1st May 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a big week for central banks, with the ECB and FOMC expected to lift rates. The US employment cost index and PCI deflator on Friday showed that prices in the US are taking a while to moderate. In Europe GDP numbers showed the economy is starting to slow, but the market still has a rate rise priced in. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the RBA is still expected to keep rates on hold tomorrow. Over the weekend China reported weaker than expected manufacturing numbers, and on Friday the Bank of Japan kept rates on hold and a continued dedication to yield curve control, even as Tokyo’s inflation numbers jumped higher. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.