NAB Morning Call

Thursday 6th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt's been a quiet week so far, but that changes today with US Services ISM out later, along with the start of US jobs numbers, including the weekly jobless claims, the JOLTs job openings and the ADP employment release, ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls. Trepidation ahead of those releases might partially account for the sharp increase in 10 year Treasury yields, but NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s also linked to forecasts from JP Morgan that UK rates will push as high as seven percent. 10-year Gilt yields also moved up accordingly. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 5th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA decided to keep rates on hold yesterday, but there are still expectations of two more hikes even though the commentary from the central bank was more about slowdown concerns that the prospect of inflation worsening or taking longer to come down. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says this should be taken as a sign that they want to move more slowly, rather than this being the endgame. It’s a clearer picture in NZ though, where a much softer Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion has been taken as another indicator that the RBNZ’s job is done. Today, as America returns to work, we get the FOMC minutes and the Caixin services PMI for China.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 4th July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA meets today. Thank goodness, otherwise it would be a desperately quiet day ahead, with the US on holiday with markets having closed early afternoon on Monday. Data on both sides of the Atlantic pointed to a manufacturing slowdown. The US ISM came in lower than expected and Germany’s PMI was revised down, to a level close to the pandemic low, when workers were in lockdown. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says we knew the US manufacturing sector was experiencing a slowdown and the German number can be attributed to lower demand from China. But what of the RBA? Today’s meeting comes a day after surprisingly strong housing data yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 3rd July 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABConsumption data and the core-PCE inflation read both came in softer than expected on Friday, after a spate of stronger than expected economic data for the US. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s not enough in these numbers for the Fed to change its current hawkish path, and markets moved only marginally lower in their expectations of the terminal rate, but what if it is compounded by weaker jobs data and falling wage growth on Friday? It’s all discussed in today’s podcast, plus Europe’s inflation remains sticky and a new head on the way for the PBoC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 30th June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe resilience in the US economy is not giving in. Q1 GDP was revised up, showing 2 percent growth QonQ, whilst consumer spending was up 4.2% on the quarter. NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, Q1 was a while ago now, and everyone knew it was a strong quarter. Yet a fall in jobless claims added to the idea that the Fed has more work cut out to bring down inflation, hence a strong move up in bond yields. Australia too is showing resilience, reinforced by yesterday’s retail numbers. And there was no respite in German inflation, with all eyes on the Euro area CPI number out today, along with the US core-PCE. Both could add to central bank woes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 29th June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBig fall in the Aussie and Kiwi dollars yesterday and overnight. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the fall in the Aussie was a combination of the falling CNY and the fall in Australian CPI yesterday, although he cautions into getting too hopeful on the inflation read. At Sintra central bankers stuck with their hawkish sentiment, except Gov Ueda from the BoJ who believed inflation would come down. Concern over Japan’s plight might account for some of the fall in the NZ dollar, although some of it is also being put down in money moving across the Tasman to buy Taylor Swift tickets! CPI for parts of Europe are released today and the Riksbank is the next to lift rates – maybe by as much as 50bps. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 28th June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was strong data from the US overnight, with a lift in durable goods orders, housing sales rising and consumer confidence also strong. NAB’s Skye Masters says the Fed won’t take any delight in these numbers so late in their tightening cycle. Meanwhile, Christine Lagarde gave a hawkish speech at Sintra. But maybe the Bank of Canada can take a rest, with core inflation a little lower than expected. Today Australia’s monthly CPI report is out, and the clash of the central bankers on a panel at the close of the Sintra symposium. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 27th June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe saw no response on the markets to the attempted Russian rebellion, instead all eyes are on Sintra in Portugal, where some of the world’s leading central bankers meet for a chinwag. NAB’s Ray Attrill says we are bound to get something out of it, particularly with Governor Ueda present from the Bank of Japan. Otherwise, a quiet session, although Canada’s inflation number will be important in determining the path for the BoC.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 26th June 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields fell on Friday as PMI reads came in softer than expected. As well as further falls in manufacturing, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, the outperformance of services has weakened, particularly in Europe where the Services PMI in France fell into contraction territory. Does this mean central banks will be less hawkish? The Fed’s Bostic said at the weekend that perhaps the FOMC has had its last rise and all that’s needed now is time for the impact of their policies to kick in. It’s a busy week for inflation numbers, including the monthly Australian figure, ahead of the RBA next week. And the shortest civil war ever. Could it pass by with no market impact whatsoever? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd June 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Bank of England and the Norges Bank both surprised markets, each raising interest rates by 50 basis points. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the mix of higher UK earnings and stubborn inflation numbers yesterday combined to drive this bigger than expected move. The question is, how much further will they go as the UK fights supply chain and labour supply issues and second-round effects? Certainly Jerome Powell is painting a less volatile path for the US economy, where further rate rises will come slowly, if at all. Yet yields are climbing higher again with all this central bank uncertainty, and oil prices have fallen sharply on an expected decline in demand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.