NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 18th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are now more focused on central bank expectations, with the hope that world leaders can contain the war in Israel and Gaza. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks through the stronger than expected US retail numbers, as inflation expectations rise. The RBA are also sounding more hawkish, with the minutes of the last meeting talking of lower tolerance for the slower return of inflation. UK CPOI today could fuel a hike by the BoE as well. But, two central banks are likely to be on hold, with Canada and New Zealand both seeing inflation come in lower than expected. Plus, which well-paid deejay is hanging up his headphones? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 17th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have backtracked on their measure of risk emanating from the middle east, with hopes that some sort of resolution will be brokered to avoid a regional war. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s a response to the fact that things haven’t escalated in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, in the world of central banks, markets are waiting in anticipation for a Jerome Powell address later in the week to see if he mirrors the suggestion from others at the Fed that higher yields could negate the need for further hikes in rates. It’s a different message from the BoE’s Huw Pill who said the question of more rises was ‘finely balanced’. Lots of data today, including US retail sales, CPI for NZ and Canada, UK wages data and the RBA minutes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe uncertainty surrounding developments in the Middle East is seeing a rush to safe-haven assets, including a sizeable lift in gold prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland wonders whether many investors had been caught short, buying in on central banks’ higher for longer narrative, without factoring in the risk of geopolitical uncertainty. The Israel Gaza conflict s now being taken seriously, with sharp rises in oil as questions remain around how much of a regional war could emanate from the unrest. Meanwhile, the question remains about how well contained inflation really is? The Michigan survey showed inflation expectations rising slightly. Rising oil prices will only add to that. Plus, an important week for Australian releases, Tapas talks us through it.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th October 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Our super contributions are designed to ensure we have a happy retirement, so is that working? The median balance for a man in his early sixties is $212k, for a woman its $158k. When will we reach an adequate level for most to lead a comfortable life? And, as the size of Australian superannuation assets grows, where do the investments go? Phil talks to Diane Somerville, Principal for Superannuation Consulting at Deloitte Australia about the growth of Australian superannuation, consolidation within the industry and the impacts of COVID. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation came in stronger than expected, pushing yields higher and strengthening the US dollar. NAB’s Gavin Friend suggests that markets are questioning the suggestion that higher yields would negate the need for further rises. Elsewhere oil has been steadied somewhat by diplomatic efforts from the US and China. UK GDP came in weak, and there’s a wealth of China data today. Also on the podcast Phil talks to Jennifer Mackinlay, Austrade’s General Manager for Europe, about how they are flying the flag for the Aussie renewables industry. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhilst central banks, particularly the Fed, are increasingly cautious about further rate hikes, the RBA’s Christopher Kent hinted that more might need to be done to slow the Aussie economy. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says a hike in November is likely to get the market speculating on another one early next year. Meanwhile, there’s very little caution being displayed in the Middle East, with volatility in oil prices as the question remains as to whether Iran will be implicated in any way and face sanctions that could cut global oil supplies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere have been a few surprises so far this week. Obviously the Hamas attacks on Israel is a bad start, and there’s every chance that will escalate further. Secondly, the more dovish approach from Fed speakers, heightening the expectation that the Fed will not lift rates again this year. JBWere’s Sally Auld says there’s still a string chance that another hike will happen, and that the US will face a recession down the track as a consequence. The third surprise, if it happens, is a one trillion Yuan stimulus measure reportedly being considered by China. All, of that, ahead of the US CPI numbers later this week, which may add to the list of surprises. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe market action this morning is perhaps less pronounced than could be expected, given the scale of the conflict between Israel and Gaza. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says some of the turnaround in US equities came from Fed speakers who seem to be shifting their bias away from more hikes to keeping cash rates where they are. That’s acted as a distraction from the main event, but individual shares match what you’d expect from a war setting, with airlines down, defence stocks up, and the same with oil. Locally, the NAB Business Survey is out today. Will it show more resilience that cold further enhance the case for further hikes by the RBA? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 9th October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday surprised many. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the 336k new jobs was well above expectations and pricing for another hike by the Fed this year increased slightly. But a clearer picture of the direction of the Fed can be gauged after the release of US CPI later this week. Canada’s employment numbers told a similar story on Friday, coming in higher than forecast. There will be some unease around today, depending on developments in the confrontation between Hamas and Israel, as to whether Iran becomes embroiled in it all. That could push oil prices higher today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 7th October 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.There are tentative signs that China’s domestic economy is picking up. On The Weekend Edition Sheana Yue from Capital Economics in Singapore says early indications are that the Golden Week this week has seen increased demand for housing and other goods and China could meet is 5% growth target this year. So, is there more reason to be optimistic about the world’s second largest economy? Sheana explains how, in the mid-term, the focus is less on major construction projects and more on IT and green technologies. Listen in to find out what that all means for the Australian economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.