NAB Morning Call

Friday 10th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields kicked higher in the US after a $24 billion 30 year auction attracted less interest than expected. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the auction yields were 5 basis points higher than pre-sales. We discuss why interest in long duration bonds is falling. Markets are also preparing for words from Jerome Powell later today, following fairly dovish talk from other Fed speakers. Today the RBA releases forecasts in the Statement of Monetary Policy. So, what will Tapas be looking out for? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 9th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt looks like there’s heightening expectations of a global slowdown, evidenced by further significant falls in oil prices today and an end to the equities rally in the US. NAB’s Ray Attrill says one former ECB Governor has added to the melancholic tone by suggesting Europe is heading for a recession next year, whilst inflation expectations one year out have risen by half a percent in one month. But generally, today, a few non definitive words from central bankers, otherwise, it’s been slim pickings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 8th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA lifted rates, as expected, yesterday, with the possibility of another hike to come. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the central bank had always assumed it was different to others, with the flexibility of a longer runway to bring inflation down without damaging the economy. That premise is being challenged now as inflation itself is taking longer to come down, so the RBA could still be lifting rates just as other central banks start to acknowledge market expectations for rate cuts next year. So late to the party, and last to leave? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 7th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB still firmly expects the RBA to lift interest rates today. As Talor Nugent observes, in a Bloomberg survey, 29 of 32 economists are expecting a hike. It’s a safer punt than anything on the Melbourne Cup today, although markets are still pricing a 30% chance that the RBA will keep rates on hold. We also get a sneak peak at the RBA’s forecasts today, with the detail provided in Friday’s Monetary Policy Statement. Meanwhile, markets have turned a little, after last week’s bond and equity rally, built on the growing belief that the Fed will drop rates starting mid-2024. Elsewhere, the BoJ Governor has reiterated a lift in rates this year is very unlikely – hardly a surprise given its November – and Robert Holzmann has said the ECB could still raise rates, if necessary. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 6th November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSofter ISM data and weaker than expected jobs data in the US on Friday has seen a rally on bonds, pushing yields down and taking the US dollar down with it. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, not only have markets reduced their expectations for future hikes, but an increasing number of investors are expecting rate cuts by the middle of next year. It’s a different story for Australia though. The RBA is likely to show the job isn’t done with a rate hike tomorrow, with the possibility of another to follow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd November 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.We’ve been through a tumultuous time, with COVID, inflation, geopolitical unrest. Go back a few years we were also struggling with sluggish growth. It’s been a tricky time for businesses, so what is the magic sauce that has seen successful businesses navigate their way through and come out on top?Ann Sherry has a wealth of business experience. She’s worked in banking, tourism, and education. She is Chancellor of Queensland University of Technology and sits on the boards of NAB, the Enero Group and the Port of Townsville. She headed Carnival Cruises during a period of turmoil, but managed to reinvent the brand and restore goodwill.On this edition of The Weekend Edition Ann talks about how companies should be reinventing themselves to cope with changing habits. And how investors can determine which companies are heading in the right direction. She suggests there’s not enough focus on forward indicators that show you how well a company is performing internally.It’s a useful and entertaining twenty minutes for business managers, entrepreneurs, and investors alike. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields are much lower across the board today. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton if bonds are back in fashion. They are for now, says Ken, but he doesn’t discount the idea that we’ll see 10 year Treasuries hitting 5% sometime soon. Pauses from central banks are certainly helping to push risk assets higher, with equity markets doing particularly well. The Bank of England and Norge Bank both kept rates on hold yesterday, with the BoE revising its UK growth forecast down to zero for 2024. Tonight, non-farm payrolls will be watched closely. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 2nd November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed kept rate son hold this morning, but there are no signs that they have finished yet. Jerome Powell was clear to point out every meeting remains live. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the statement has been updated to include financial conditions as one of the determinants of future policy, reflecting the recent rises in long end bond yields. Will those yields influence future policy decisions? Powell said it was possible if a few conditions are met. Later on, the Bank of England and Norges Bank – both expected to remain on hold. Will the RBA next week be out of kilter with the other central banks? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 1st November 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Bank of Japan is loosening its grip on yields. Today NAB’s Skye Masters explains what the move means and how markets responded. A sharp move down in the Yen suggests that more was expected. Also today further weakness in Europe – in growth and inflation – shows the ECB has almost certainly run its course, and more talk of how quickly they will start to lower rates. Meanwhile, all eyes today on the FOMC tomorrow morning, just before Thursday’s podcast and why, even though the will keep rates on hold, it’s not plain sailing for the US by any means. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 31st October 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities have risen today, alongside a fall in oil prices, as hopes rise that the Gaza war will not see contagion throughout the region. Meanwhile, Germany delivered slower GDP growth and falling inflation, ahead of the Europe wide data today. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the pressure is off the ECB, who could likely reached their terminal rate, although at least one ECB member is saying there could be more. There will certainly be more from the RBA after yesterday’s retail numbers in Australia, which came in stronger than most had expected. Plus, the Bank of Japan meets today, amidst expectations that they will lift the cap on long end yields. We also we get confirmation of the size of US bond issuance today – and the makeup of that issuance later this week. Each event will have an influence on bond yields and currencies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.