NAB Morning Call

Friday 31st May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABInflation is taking a long time to come down, everywhere it seems. Europe reports its CPI today, but the numbers from Germany and Spain have already shown it’s taking longer than expected. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about expectations around the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Deflator, out later today. With Fed speakers doing their best to pus expectations further back a high number here could be the ammunition needed for those expected no cuts this year, and maybe a rise. That’s an argument made by Bill Dudley on Bloomberg today. Yet there are many signs of a weakening global economy, the US included, which will give hope to those expecting cuts sooner rather than much later. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 30th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia’s monthly CPI reads are always to be treated cautiously. Nonetheless, the surprise rise in inflation did create a response on Asian markets, pushing Aussie yields higher. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks about how weaker bond demand in US 7-year note auction added to the bond sell-off. Australia wasn’t the only inflation surprise. German CPI also rose. The ECB is wedded to a cut next week, but will they deliver the 60bp priced in for this year? In New Zealand the question for today is can the government meet all their budgetary promises without adding to the inflation worries. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 28th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were two bond auctions in the US overnight – for 2 year and 5 year treasuries. Both saw weaker demand than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton if investors are weary of the size of bond supply this year. Meanwhile US consumer confidence rose more than expected. Yesterday we saw weaker retail numbers than expected, but part of that can be explained away by the timing of Easter. Today there's the CPI number for Australia, although it’s not expected to influence the RBA’s sense of timing.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 28th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a quiet 24 hours with the UK and US on holiday, with the bond and equity markets closed in each place. But Europe was open for business, although the German IFO numbers offered little to get excited about – staying in the same place as last month. One ECB speaker said after the June rate cut, the central bank will retain ‘maximum optionality’ – central bank speak for we’re not sure what happens next. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril guides us through the data, and the commentary from the ECB and the BoJ. Australia’s retail sales numbers are out this morning, along with producer prices for Japan, and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report out tonight in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 27th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFriday was a quiet end to the week, but the NSDAQ still managed to touch a new high. Bond markets closed early in the US, though, in readiness for a long weekend, that will see a slow start to this week. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says trade was light so we can’t draw any definitive conclusions about too much. Even Nobel economist Paul Krugman is unsure where things are heading. He said he could argue either way as to whether or not interest rates will remain higher for longer, and whether R* rate should return to 2019 benchmark levels, or has it moved higher. Does anyone know? After a quiet start, this week picks up with the US PCE deflator on Friday, and Australian retail sales and CPI prints before that. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th May 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NVIDIA is now the third biggest listing in the US, with a market cap of 2.3 trillion dollars. Their earning results this week were an upside surprise for revenue, margins and forward guidance. So how far has the US tech growth story got to go? Phil talks to NABTrade’s Gemma Dale about the rise and rise of tech. Is it pulling investment away form Australian domestic stocks? They cite some interesting research from NAB that demonstrates how super funds have been selling US shares because the growth has been too strong and they need to rebalance their portfolios. Retail investors, of course, aren’t limited in the same way, so should they hold on for the ride? And what part does Australia play in the tech and environment megatrends? Can we expect some high growth companies as well? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABStronger than expected PMIs in the US – for manufacturing and services – have pushed bond yields higher. Equities, which started the session strong on the back of the NVIDIA earnings, have also fallen sharply today as pricing for rate cuts by the Fed gets pushed back further. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the data for the US does need to continue to soften for the Fed to deliver on cuts, and these numbers went against that trend. In Europe the latest ECB wages data also challenged expectations for moves beyond the already signalled June cut.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 23rd May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe UK Prime Minister stood out I the pouring rain to announce a July 4 election for the UK, months ahead of expectations. Perhaps he doesn’t think the economy will improve so he might as well go sooner. It comes on the same day as the latest UK CPI numbers, which didn’t fall as far as expected. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether this could all push rate cuts out further. There’s a worry in some quarters that the Fed could be in the same boat, with FOMC minutes just out. In NZ Adrian Orr said the RBNZ even considered a rate hike for yesterday’s meeting. Meanwhile, NVIDIA’s latest earnings showed  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 22nd May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquities were quite contained a day out from the NVIDIA earnings, although the S&P did hit another all time high. Copper prices continue to rise from its new high on Monday. Phil asks Ray what’s driving this – real factors or a speculative bubble? European wages data came in high, so much so that you’d be wondering why the ECB is so committed to a June rate cut. Canada saw inflation growth slow, and with the RBNZ tonight Phil asks Ray for his take on the order of bank cuts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 21st May 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s an absence of solid data. Maybe that’s why equity markets have reverted to AI-hype, ahead of NVIDIA earnings later in the week. There’s also been significant gains in the price of silver, gold and copper. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about why precious metals are doing so well. None of this distracts from the commentary from central banks, with more from the UK and US tonight, as well as the minutes of the last RBA meeting locally. And the first fo the week’s significant CPI prints – first off, Canada. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.