NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 31st July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a packed episode of The Morning Call today as Phil gets NAB’s Ray Attrill to take us through the latest GDP and inflation data from Europe, jobs data from the US and, from China, the Politburo’s promise to jump into action and reach 5% GDP, without really saying how.  Today Australia’s CPI is the main point of interest because it could drive the RBA to an interest rate rise. A rise is expected from the bank of Japan later, perhaps a little more than previously thought. And Microsoft’s earnings results came in stronger than expected, but the after hours share price clearly didn’t like the softer results for intelligent cloud revenue. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 30th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a quiet session, with shares and bond markets moving very little, as we await the Fed and some high-profile earnings results. We’ve seen very tight trading ranges, says NABs Skye Masters on today’s podcast. The mood music though is one of an anticipated slowdown. That’s why oil prices and industrial metals are down so much. McDonalds reported a fall in global sales in their latest earnings report. European GDP is the major number out today, a long with job openings for the US. And listen in for how US earnings results give a foretaste of where the US employment market is heading.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 29th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGet ready for a busy week, with US jobs umbers, Australian inflation, three ig earnings results from US tech giants; and the Fed meets, so does the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says one will stay on hold, one is expected to lift rates and the other is 50:50 on a cut. He also discusses with Phil last week’s core PC numbers, which showed inflation was slowing, along with earnings and consumer spending. A scenario that is very supportive of cuts by the FOMC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Harry Ishihara, a macro strategist for Macrobond and the Japan Exchange Group, shares insights into Japan's economic transformation. He discusses the surprising rise in core inflation to 2.6% after decades of stagnation and the implications of a weakened yen. The conversation explores how companies are starting to raise prices and wages, possibly signaling a revitalized economy. Harry delves into potential challenges, including consumer adaptation and the impacts of currency fluctuations on Japan's competitiveness and investment landscape.

Friday 26th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA sharp turnaround in US optimism it seems, with this week’s disappointing PMIs easily overwritten by an upside surprise on GDP. Jobless claims were also down a little. The response – rising equities and falling Treasury yields. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether Goldilocks is back on the horizon, offering a faster path to cuts with minimal economic damage. It’s a very different story in Europe though, where we saw PMIs sharply lower in Germany and reaffirmed by the IFO numbers out overnight. Of course central bank decisions ultimately rest on inflation numbers, so Tokyo’s CPI and June’s US Core PCE Deflator reads will be watched keenly. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 25th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBill Dudey, former NY Fed Governor, now Bloomberg pundit, has said the FOMC needs to cut rates next week and it might already be too late to avoid a recession. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this comes from a man who had advocated staying higher for longer. His opinion certainly impacted 2 year bond yields overnight But the bigger news is the large falls in US equities, led by tech stocks, with the cost of AI and the slow delivery on promises taking the blame. PMIs came in weaker than expected, not just for Germany, where the fall was particularly pronounced, but also for US manufacturing, which might help Dudley’s arguments, but US GDP (out tonight) is expected to rise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 24th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAlphabet and Tesla both reported better than expected headline revenue numbers after the US close, but the mood is still cautious. The S&P, Dow and NASDAQ all closed in the red, but a 1% rise in the Russell 2000. JB Were’s Sally Auld talks about the return of rotation, with the prospect of lower rates boosting interest in the growth potential of smaller companies. And Sally points out there are only a couple of countries that are going against the idea of easing interest rates – one is Japan, who could well lift rates next week. The other is the Australia. NAB is not expecting an RBA rate hike, but comments from Michelle Bullock yesterday are getting more people thinking its possible. It’s all down to next week’s CPI number. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 23rd July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIf markets were being driven by Trump-trade, the thought that he might have a more credible contender hasn’t had much impact. But what were we expecting? Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about whether, beyond bitcoin, the Trump-trade was a figment of our collective imaginations. Instead, the focus is back on tech, particularly as the first two of the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet and Telsa) report their earnings this time tomorrow. The surprise yesterday was a 10bp cut in China’s 1-year and 5-yea loan prime rates.  But is it too small to have much impact?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 22nd July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe breaking news this morning is that Joe Biden is stepping down from the US Presidential race and endorsing Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate. Phil asks whether they’ll be a market response, or have we already been seeing it. Last week saw the dollar climbing, against falling equities and a sell-off in commodities. How much of that was down to politics and how down to the economy and the musings of central bank speakers? After a quiet start this week is heavy on important numbers, including global PMIs, US GDP and core PCE on Friday, plus a continuation of earnings season. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th July 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Much of the world is on the road to achieving to net zero by 2050, a target which gets more challenging as each year passes. Australia is on the right path, but it isn’t leading the pack. Why Not? Phil puts the question to Rochel Hoffman, who leads Deloitte Australia’s ESG M&A practice. Despite having many rare earth mineral resources, vast quantities of land, a wealthy society, political stability and a sunny climate, Australia has been slower than most to invest in NetZero projects. The Climate Action Tracker, which is an independent scientific group that rates each country’s progress on the targets set in Paris, rates our climate finance as ‘critically insufficient’. That will change, says Rochel. We’re working through a series of constraints that have impacted the speed of the transformation. Our history with fossil fuels has been a part of the problem. Now, green technology provides a wealth of investment opportunities for a range of risk categories. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.