NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 17th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS retail numbers came in stronger than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this could delay any moves by the Fed? Certainly, equity markets ae banking on cuts coming soon, with the rotation in stocks continuing and another strong session for the Russell 2000. Today the focus is on CPI. We’ve just had it for Canada, who seem to have it under control, and later we get it for the UK, where services inflation is putting up a fight, and New Zealand, where the economy is hanging out for a rate cut.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 16th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquity markets are showing some adjustment to the prospect of a Trump presidency, with oil producers and gun makers doing well, renewables falling and Bitcoin up almost 6% today. Bond markets are still more responsive to Fed-speak. NAB’s S kye Masters gives Phil her take-outs from Jerome Powell's interview at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. and another session seeing the yield curve ending steeper. Inflation data is out for Canada tonight, after a business survey showed further weakness in the economy. They also discuss the slump in New Zealand’s PMI’s and more data showing the extent of the China slowdown. Although many are expecting Chinese authorities to announce e very little new in their Third Plenum today, can they really sit by and wait? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 15th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe assassination attempt against Donald Trump on Saturday is likely to bolster his support, ahead of his GOP official nomination this week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland tells Phil that betting markets have shifted further in favour of a Republican win. So, will we see much market impact as markets re-open today? Markets on Friday were driven by a hjgher than expected PPI read, at odds with the weaker inflation numbers earlier in the week. Phil asks how this has changed market pricing for rate cuts. They also look at Friday’s US banks earnings, China’s trade data over the weekend. Plus, what is the Third Plenum and why should we pay attention to it? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB has been looking at a variety of high frequency data sources to see how quickly workers are returning to the office. In this edition NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the trend seems to have stalled at 75% of pre-COVID levels. Credit analyst Evy Noble says this is also reflected in occupancy levels, although there is a large variation from one capital city to another. Phil asks Michael Bush, NAB’s head of credit research, what this will mean for property prices and rental yield. Michael says the issue is exacerbated by new supply already in the pipeline. So how does the market evolve? Will companies try to tempt workers back to the office, or will they downsize and try and spread the days that people choose to work from home?The detail is contained in the NAB research note, The return to Office - are we now at the new normal? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBig market moves to a softer than expected CPI read in the US overnight. Bond yields are lower, the US dollar is lower and a big response in equity markets. Basically tech stocks have been hit hard, whilst industrials have climbed. Rotation is the key word for the day. The other word is Yen, which fell 1.8 percent on the CPI news. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s clearly been some opportunistic intervention by the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile Joe Biden gives his press conference at the NATO conference shortly, which is widely billed by some commentators as the make or break moment for his Democrat nomination for the Presidency. And UK GDP better than expected but lost on the British people who seem more obsessed with the outcome of a certain soccer match over the weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 11th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe drive for Joe Biden to step aside continues to dominate the news cycle in America, with actor George Clooney, who held a fundraiser for the President only a month ago, now calling for him to step aside for someone younger. Incidentally, how many Clooney movies can you spot in today’s introduction?Meanwhile, markets are more focused on what Jerome Powell has been saying and whether the fed will squeeze in two rate cuts before the end of the year, while closer to home, the RBNZ struck a noticeably more dovish tone at their July meeting. NAB’s Taylor Nugent gives his interpretation of what’s said and how markets have responded. The biggest moves today have been in US equities, is that Fed related or jockeying ahead of earnings season? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 10th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJerome Powell has been speaking to the US congress and says the labour market is no longer an inflationary pressure. So, what does that mean for the timing of rate cuts? NAB’s Skye Masters says there hasn’t been too much change in expectations, with a September cut seen as most likely. With a light calendar today, a lot of the focus will be on the US ten year note auction early tomorrow morning and whether weaker demand could push yields higher. The RBNZ meets today with any expecting a fairly dovish hold. The hold is extremely likely, but dovish? Let’s see. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 9th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a lacklustre day for markets. Equities have moved a little ahead of earnings season which kicks off in earnest later in the week. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk about the new French government, which will take some time to form. Will it be one of such compromise that nothing will be achieved? But is it symptomatic of Europe’s future. German trade data showed a sharp fall in imports yesterday. The EU is set to impose fines of countries falling outside their rules on government debt. Is there rally much hope for a European recovery? They also discuss Powell’s testimony tonight – will he use it as an opportunity to signal a change in attitude for the Fed? And NAB’s business survey is out today. Hopefully it will be a little more positive than last month. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 8th July 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFrance looks like it won’t be veering sharply to the right after a. The exit poll out this morning has Marine Le Pen’s party in third place, so it looks likely the country is heading for a hung parliament. Phil talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about how the markets will respond. There was plenty of reaction to the non-farm payrolls number on Friday. The headline number suggested a rise in the people in work, but the reality is it showed an easing jobs market which is reflected in raised expectations for a September rate cut. We also look ahead to the RBNZ this week and the question mark hanging over Jo Biden’s head. Will he make it as Presidential nominee for the November election?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th July 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In June, according to PropTrack, Australia’s home prices hit new highs, rising for the 18th consecutive month. But, as Eleanor Creagh, senior economist at PropTrack explains, the growth is far from even. There are some cities where prices are falling. So, what are the factors driving prices up? And how can it be that prices have risen so much in the last year even though the RBA is pursuing such a hefty tightening cycle, pushing interest rates higher.Eleanor takes Phil through the latest PropTrack data and looks at the inevitable question, where to from here? If buyers have taken a longer-term view, buying when interest rates have peaked, does that mean we are less likely to see a spike in prices when the rates start to fall? Or not? Logic and house prices can be strange bedfellows. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.