This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

With Vladimir Putin putting Russia’s nuclear deterrent on high alert, could the war take an atomic turn? Or is this merely a tactical move from the Kremlin? And what could the Ukraine crisis mean for nuclear policy in the coming years?Dr Laura Considine, politics professor at Leeds University, joins Arthur Snell to explain the history of nuclear proliferation, atomic weapons in the context of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and the direction of nuclear policy in the coming years.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “North Korea developed its nuclear weapons secretly while party to the non-proliferation treaty.” “What we’re seeing here is nuclear weapons being used as a means of enabling aggression.” “A lot of tactical nuclear weapons are bigger than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.” “Deterrence is all about what didn’t happen, and it’s very hard to analyse what hasn’t occurred.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As war rages on Russia’s European front, tensions are also rising in the East with neighbours Japan, as Russian forces conduct military drills on the disputed Northern Territories, claimed by Japan.Japanese Deputy Cabinet Secretary Koichiro Matsumoto joins Arthur Snell to explain the complicated history between Japan and Russia, what Putin’s invasion means for Asian security, and how the Japanese people have rallied around Ukraine.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Russia’s invasion undermines the foundation of not only Europe, but the entire international order.” “Japan has condemned Russia’s invasion since the very beginning.” “Like many world neighbours, Russia and Japan have numerous unresolved and difficult issues.” “Japan’s path to a ‘Russia-Free’ economy is not an easy one.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It has been over a month since Russia invaded Ukraine, but with Kyiv still yet to fall Kremlin officials have announced plans to withdraw troops from the region. Where did Russia’s war go so wrong? Is this retreat real, or is Putin wargaming for something bigger?Dr Mike Martin, a former British Army officer and author of Why We Fight, joins Arthur Snell to discuss Russia’s apparent withdrawal, and where the conflict could go next.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/carrd.co/  “The Russians only have around 200,000 soldiers, but you need around a million to hold Ukraine.” “The people at the top of the Ukrainian army would’ve served in the Soviet army, so they are aware of how it operates.” “Russia have a number of commitments that tie up their forces… they’re very worried about China.” “Syrians and Central Africans are being paid by Russia to fight. They wouldn’t be calling on these people if they had a formed reserve.” “As far as the Ukrainians are concerned, this is a fight for national survival, and the public are behind them.” “Russia are shifting their goals because they need some kind of domestic victory.” “If you look through history, Russian leaders don’t survive when they lose wars.” “A fighting retreat is probably the most difficult land manoeuvre to execute.” “If costs aren’t imposed on Russia like they weren’t in 2014, then they will come again and finish the job off.” “Even for the propagandists in the Kremlin, using nukes is a step too far.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has Western nations looking to the Middle East for their oil supplies, but are they obliging? And could the conflict in Europe spark another round of uprisings across the Arab world?Human rights activist and authoritarianism expert Iyad el-Baghdadi joins Arthur Snell to discuss what Putin’s war means for the Middle East. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “MBS has a personal like of Putin, and in some ways he’s modelled himself on him.” “America is not going to defend MBS against a popular uprising.” “The Saudi Army cannot vanquish ragtag militias in Yemen. It needs Western security guarantees.” “Bread is the staple across the Arab region... Egypt imports 80% of its wheat from Ukraine or Russia.” “Riots about bread prices quickly turn into riots about corruption, mismanagement and repression.” “The only group who can check a dictator and end his power for good is his own people.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In 2014 Macer Gifford left his job as a city trader to go and fight ISIS in Syria. Now he’s continuing his work as an international volunteer, this time in the Ukraine conflict. In an illuminating conversation, Macer tells Arthur about the parallels between wars in Syria and Ukraine, the role of international volunteers in the conflict, and his plans for a frontline medical unit to support the Ukrainian people.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “I was there as the bombs began to fall, and seeing people huddling on the metro felt like the blitz.” “A lot of international volunteers I was with in Syria are already on the ground in Ukraine.” “My plan is to create a medical unit with volunteers, and to deploy them on the frontline to support both the Ukrainian military and civilians.” “We’re going to see tactics similar to Syria where Russia bombs civilian centres into submission.” “If the economic might of the west can bring Russia to its knees then we might get a negotiated settlement.” “What Ukraine needs now is enthusiastic volunteers who are willing to defend every inch of territory.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has Finland questioning its tradition of military non-alignment. Janne Korhonen, university professor and political activist, dials in to tell Arthur how the debate on NATO membership has shifted following Putin’s war. We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “When Russia invaded in 1939, Finland was in quite a similar position to Ukraine today.” “We joined the EU because we were afraid of Russia, but going to NATO at that time would’ve been too much.” “The defence of Finland is not just a question for the military, but for the whole of society.” “The last poll showed 62% of Finns are in favour in joining NATO, a complete reversal from six months ago.” “My guess is that Finland will be NATO members before the end of this year. It’s now or never.” “These threats Russia is making about Sweden and Finland joining NATO are nothing new. They’ve been making them for over 20 years.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

India’s tradition of military non-alignment has come under huge strain with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The world’s second most populous country has tried to maintain a neutral stance, but has come under sharp criticism from the West as casualties from the conflict mount. What explains India’s stance, and what does it hope to achieve? Harsh Pant, International relations professor at Kings College London’s India Institute, joins Arthur Snell to discuss.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “This crisis has exposed India’s vulnerabilities, they’re very reliant on Russia for their defence capabilities.” “As this conflict has dragged on, the Indian Government has become increasingly uncomfortable with its position.” “Ironically India is the only country that needs both Russia and the West on its side.” “The Covid period showed that over reliance on China is not healthy.” “Russia and China getting together is perhaps one of the worst nightmares for India.” “India is drifting away from Russia and towards the West, that is a long-term trend.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Two weeks into Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and things aren’t going to plan. Kyiv is still yet to fall, and Russian troops have failed to make substantial progress against fierce Ukrainian resistance. Defence analyst and military historian Dr Peter Caddick-Adams joins Arthur Snell to pinpoint where Russia’s shameful war went wrong… and what could happen next.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Russia still has conscription, and we in the west don’t understand how badly conscripts are treated.” “Zelensky has become Churchill. His words and the way he delivers them have a real sense of validity.” “Standing up to Putin is like standing up to Josef Stalin. It’s simply not an option.” “While Russia wants to control Ukraine, it doesn’t want to occupy it. Their army is nowhere near big enough.” “The more Putin pulls off his gloves, the more the world is turns back to 1989.” “This is a war where history is really relevant. There are parallels with city battles from World War 2.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Is Russia’s fiasco in Ukraine just Putin’s monstrous folly? Or does the Russian military have even bigger problems? Arthur Snell hears from KCL Lecturer for German and European Studies Alexander Clarkson about how a flawed image of Ukraine as a failed state sowed the seeds of Russia’s embarrassment. And how, when Putin invaded Crimea in 2014, he inadvertently began training a generation of fighters who do not know how to give up.Sound quality warning! This time Arthur records from a car park in Swindon. Never let it be said that we don’t go the extra mile for the Doomsday Watch faithful.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “How are you going to occupy a country of 21m people with a force of 150,000 troops? It’s La La Land.” “The Russians talked themselves into a position where they had to attack something.” “What really matters is, when everything goes to hell around you, can you stay calm? Some 400,000 Ukrainians have crossed that psychological threshold. Whatever hits them, they can do what has to be done." “Everything the Russians have done is just very… weird. Everything they do triggers what they’re trying to prevent.” “If Ukraine survives, very mid-sized states will conclude that, you know what? We can fuck the Americans or the Chinese.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The bogeyman of NATO expansion was Putin’s pretext to invade Ukraine. Can NATO act now to stop Russia’s war – or would that trigger nuclear conflict? Is a No-Fly Zone practical? Former NATO representative in Moscow and now Chatham House associate fellow John Lough tells Arthur Snell about the latest state of play with NATO and the long-term implications of the most dangerous security crisis in Europe since 1945.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Help our work, and shape the next full series of Doomsday Watch, by supporting us on Patreon.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “This operation is not playing out as Russia expected. They thought the blitzkrieg would work – but they have fatally misread Ukraine.” “Two generations of Ukrainians have been born into freedom. The heroism they’ve shown in recent days is extraordinary.” “Will we see an incident at the border as NATO attempts to deliver ammunition to Ukraine? There’s a lot of danger there.” “We are prosecuting our own hybrid warfare now – economic war… Russia will go back to the Soviet Union on steroids.” “The disaster in Ukraine can only lead to Putin leaving office a lot earlier. And it may bring the entire system down.” “Russia has entered a quagmire that will lead to an embarrassing defeat. No amount of state propaganda can cover up that.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices