This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

As the war in Ukraine enters a fifth month, and with the conflict entering a stalemate, what could Russian escalation look like? Would they turn to chemical weapons? And why are bio weapons still part of the debate?Dan Kaszeta, a former US military and secret service officer, chemical weapons expert and author of Toxic: A History of Nerve Agents, From Nazi Germany to Putin's Russia, joins Arthur Snell for another war bulletin.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.ukResources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

While much of the focus is on the ground war in Ukraine, there's another conflict Russia is fighting, dubbed 'hybrid war'. This involves the use of non-military methods such as cyber attacks, espionage and fake news, and is being waged against western democracies including the UK.Helena Ivanov and Neil Barnett have written a report on the subject titled Russia’s Hybrid War Against the UK. They join Arthur Snell to discuss the conflict we can't see.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Thank you for backing us on Patreon, we really appreciate your support.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/Helena and Neil's report can be found here: https://henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/russias-hybrid-war-against-the-uk/ “Hybrid warfare involves the use methods such as cyber attacks, espionage and fake news.” - Helena Ivanov “Ukraine is the first time in the post-soviet era that Russia has come up against army with the means and will to resist.” - Neil Barnett “An increasing number of countries are realising the power of media, and are using it to try and influence global politics.” - Helena Ivanov “If Putin can convince those in western countries that sanctions are hurting them, he can create disunity.” - Helena Ivanov “Russian activity never stops, information warfare is always happening.” - Helena Ivanov DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Nearly four months into the Ukraine-Russia war, where is the conflict at? After limited early progress, is Russia now beginning to gain ground, or are both sides grinding to a halt? And in the longer term, can the West sustain both the supply of arms to Ukraine, and it's unity? Defence Editor for the Economist Shashank Joshi joins Arthur Snell for an update on where the war is headed.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.ukResources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “As we speak, Russia is making some substantial tactical successes, but this isn’t everything.” “We are running low of some of the weaponry that we’re giving Ukraine.” “I’ve been trying to answer the question if the Russian army is bad, or if it’s a good army that’s been given bad orders?” “If Russia occupies the Donbas, it won’t sign a document and stop there.” “You don’t require a Trump victory in 2024 to dissolve the Western coalition.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Those in the West would be forgiven for thinking Ukraine is winning the information war, with slick videos of President Zelenskyy appearing all over social media. However for those in the Global South, the content they consume about the war is much more pro-Russia.To explain this phenomenon and the wider context, Carl Miller, Research Director at the Demos Centre for the Analysis of Social Media, joins Arthur Snell for another War Bulletin.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.ukResources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “Wrenching heartbreak for Ukraine is completely unbroken on my social media feeds.”  ”Russia and China have tried to meddle in open information spaces to manipulate the world's view of them.”  “You only have to Google ’buy retweets‘ to see how readily available these services are. It's not expensive for states to run these campaigns.”  ”We need widen the array of responses to this tradecraft, beyond platform takedown, digital literacy campaigns and journalistic exposé.”  ”Western governments need to support ways for Russian citizens to access information that already exists. Let them use Wikipedia.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Of all the countries playing a part in the Ukraine crisis, Turkey is perhaps the most difficult to read. A NATO member and supplying drones to Ukraine, but at the same time thwarting Sweden and Finland’s attempts to join the alliance, and hosting Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov later this week.To discuss what Turkey and its president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are trying to achieve, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Senior Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, dials in from Istanbul to speak to Arthur Snell.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.ukResources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “There is a feeling within Turkey that the country is on the verge of something great.”  “I live on the Bosporus, a few months ago I saw Russian ships coming down into the Black Sea.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

At the heart of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the wider crisis affecting Europe, is the question of energy security. How did the West become so reliant on Russian oil and gas? And as the continent moves away from the Kremlin's energy supply, what will the impact be? Helen Thompson, professor of Political Economy at the University of Cambridge and author of Disorder, joins Arthur Snell to discuss the geopolitical fallout from Putin's invasion.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.ukResources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “Out of the West European reaction to the Suez crisis came the first turn back to Soviet energy.”  “Russia wanted to be an Eurasian energy power, unlike the Soviet Union which was focused on Western Europe.”  “Before the Omicron variant last year, an energy crisis was already beginning to take shape.”  “Europe can’t go back to the geopolitical complacency that dominated the continent before Russia’s invasion.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As Sweden and Finland apply to join NATO, ending decades of military neutrality, how has Putin's invasion revived an alliance described as 'Braindead' by Emmanuel Macron just two years ago?Lord Peter Ricketts, a former Permanent Representative to NATO, ex-ambassador to France and Britain's first National Security Advisor, joins Arthur Snell to discuss the implications of war in Ukraine for Western security, and the potential paths for ending the conflict.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Thank you for backing us on Patreon, we really appreciate your support.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/ “Sweden and Finland applying to join signals a huge turnaround for the NATO alliance.” “Sweden and Finland bring to NATO a serious defence capacity and a serious defence mindset.” ”Russia has to come to terms with the fact that as a result of what Putin has done, NATO is stronger and more united.” “This move from the Nordic nations is so well supported, I don’t think Turkey will block it in the long-term.” “When there are problems in NATO, Washington usually uses its muscle to sort them out.” “Although people around Trump have doubts around NATO, the alliance is well supported in Congress.” “Britain is most effective in the world when we work with our closest neighbours and allies.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's been three months since Russia invaded Ukraine, but with Putin now focusing on the east of the country after his failure to take Kyiv, where is the war currently?Dr Mike Martin, a former British Army officer and author of Why We Fight, comes back on the show to tell Arthur Snell about the brutal battle for the Donbas, and where the conflict could head next.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Thank you for backing us on Patreon, we really appreciate your support.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “The Russians are trying to take the whole of the Donbas under their control.”  “Many of the same mistakes the Russians made in Kyiv are being made in the Donbas.”  “Russian morale is appalling, and Ukrainian morale is sky high.”  “I’ve lost count as to how many Russian generals have been killed.”  “The Russians cannot reinforce their naval presence in the Black Sea as Turkey has closed off the Bosporus.”  “Were Russia to use a nuclear weapon, the NATO powers wouldn’t allow that to pass without a response.”  "Russia have de-escalated. They were talking about regime change and de-nazification, now they're talking about getting the Donbass under Russian control.”  "Russian leaders don't tend to survive when they lose wars.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Russian dark money has infiltrated Western politics for years, leading to increased support for the Kremlin and their actions in capitals across the developed world. To discuss the how and why behind Russia's financial meddling, Iain Campbell, financial investigator and journalist, joins Arthur Snell for another War Bulletin.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. You can support our work on the crowdfunding app Patreon: doomsdaywatch.co.ukResources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/  “Unravelling the influence of Russian money in Western societies will take many years.”  “In practical terms, Orban is doing what he can to slow down the flow of weapons from the EU to Ukraine.”  “Campaigns such as ‘No to AV’ and those for Scottish Independence had links to Russia.”  “The Russians view European integration as an existential threat, they want a Europe of small nations they can dominate.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Russian state is working incredibly hard to persuade its people that the war is both necessary and going well, but what state of mind is Russia's population in?Sarah Hurst, author of the Russia Report newsletter, talks to Arthur Snell about the Kremlin's campaign of disinformation, and how international sanctions are hitting the Russian population.We're putting out irregular war bulletins covering different aspects of the Ukraine crisis. Thank you for backing us on Patreon, we really appreciate your support.Resources to help the Ukrainian people can be found here: https://ukrainewar.carrd.co/Sarah's Russia Report newsletter can be found here: https://therussiareport.substack.com “The majority of Russian people by now would realise that the war isn’t going to plan.” “Putin is taking ownership of the Soviet victory over the Nazis as if it were his own.” “There are people who fought for the Soviets in World War 2, and their houses have been destroyed by the Russians.” “In all his lengthy press conference, Putin has never said anything meaningful, it’s all catchphrases.” “Severe economic problems can make a dictatorship more brutal.” “Despite the fact Russia has oil and gas, we should expect them to have some pretty dire difficulties.” DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices