The ACID Capitalist Podcast

Send us a textMacro Confessions Part XX II (October 2005)The Scottish tormentor, Chris Sweeney, is pumped to the max as he seeks to understand the inner workings of Hugh's orthogonal Eclectica Fund. The boys use his monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was really thinking at the time and why he made the decisions he did. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss his journey to the present day where he reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights and his chagrin for those that got away.This week, Chris continues to audit great hedge fund managers' recent performance. Hugh gives them a pass. And Chris is channeling investments via his viewing habits. He asks, is Succession accurate? Are investors petty or the guardian dogs of capitalism? Hugh favours the latter interpretation and  responds in an Ayn Randian manner. Never apologise for the wealth created by your intellectual graft, he barks.The investment discussion goes back to 1979, 1982 and 2005 to ask questions about today's epic bull market in the US Treasury market. Hugh accepts that bond yields will rise over the next 40 years but cautions that nascent bull markets protect their bounty of profits with enormous moats. Investors seeking to capture a bear market in Ts better beware. Adopt paradoxical investment techniques to capture the upside.And somewhere in the mix they discuss African jeep safari research trips and the prejudice of the present. Tune-in or be square...⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...

Send us a textMacro Confessions Part XX (Autumn 2005)We welcome back again,  the Scottish tormentor, Chris Sweeney, to chronicle the inner workings of Hugh's orthogonal Eclectica Fund. The boys use his monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was really thinking at the time and why he made the decisions he did. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss his journey to the present day where he reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights and his chagrin for those that got away.This week, they examine the first time Hugh really got a good hosing. Warning, it's a shocking tale. And having navigated Christmas,  the boys are channelling The Beatles back catalogue; inspired by Let it Be, they ask why exactly was Hugh channeling Abbey Road back in 2005?  More big currency gyrations this week. This time Hugh attempts to fit together the jigsaw pieces of 5 year lows in the Japanese yen, the sell-off in US Treasuries and the absurd and persistent cheapness of volatility in Japan. Blame Netflix, but Hugh fears a direct meteor strike on planet "markets" and he is dusting down some convex trades.And somewhere in the mix they discuss Money Heist and wading through pools of reindeer blood. Tune-in or be square...⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...

Send us a textEver attended a Hedge Fund Christmas Party? We've super charged the subtitles as we welcome back the Scottish tornado, Chris Sweeney to once more chronicle the inner workings of Hugh's orthogonal Eclectica Fund. The boys use his monthly client letters as a Hedge Fund boot camp to reveal what he was really thinking at the time and why he made the decisions he did. No Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights and his chagrin for those that got away.This week, we examine Hugh's relationship with Crispin Odey, his vexation at seeing music business valuations explode to the upside this year. He rues his failure to buy EMI back in 2005 when valuations where just 5% to 10% of today's levels. It all makes for A Blue Christmas, the boys are channelling Elvis as they pick over this week's big currency gyrations from Turkey, a country of 85 million inhabitants with a GDP equal to less than a quarter of the value of Apple's stock market capitalisation. Apples and Turkey...merry Christmas one and all.⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...

Send us a textThis week we have a Shared Confession. Former macro hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, is joined by Dr. Angus Fletcher (Phd, Yale) , a neuroscientist and professor of Shakespeare. Angus rocks ! His latest book, Creative  Thinking, was written especially for US special operatives engaging with live risk. We discuss the carry over principals for all wannabe hedge fund investors. This is hedge fund bootcamp for narrative warriors. The pursuit of linguistics and rogue imagination over data; the rejection of logic. Data predicts yesterday. We suggest a non logical mode of intelligence that dares to see tomorrow. We explain how to react at the speed of life. If you can open yourself up to all the points of perspective when everyone else is rooted in the past then maybe you might just come to find yourself "in the moment". We discuss the principals for seeing the future. Brains don't need spreadsheets but exceptional data. Chaos is brain food.⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...

Send us a textEx macro hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, again invites his former investment partner, Tom Roderick, to review the global macro landscape. This week Tom discusses his new macro essay, China's Zodiac Doomsday Clock. Hugh becomes nostalgic for March 2009 and his slow train journey to Wuhan which revealed abundant evidence of China's property overbuilding 12 years ago. Tom explains why their China blow-up fund never made them a billion dollars. The answer was written in the stars. China's wise men acknowledged Confucius - wise man's clock is slower. Beijing's bureaucrats socialised risk and relied upon rapid gdp growth, urbanisation and population growth to remedy the situation.  The Chinese zodiac has 12 characters like our own system but takes 12 years, not months, to travel the galaxy and back. The gonzo investor shakes his head. A question of faulty time keeping ? The boys move on and consider whether inflation is deflationary ? This is macro conjecture for grown-ups and Tom asks why investors never consider debt levels to wealth rather than GDP ? The episode concludes with the contest between real and nominal US Treasury yields...which is the centre of our financial universe ?⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...

Send us a textFormer macro hedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, again invites his former investment colleague, Tom Roderick, to review the global macro landscape.  This week they argue over inflation. Hugh is sceptical, Tom less so. The gonzo investor rails against the media’s shock and outrage on witnessing higher prices. “We closed the world for more than a year and then jolted it back to life with the greatest ever cash incentive to buy...why are we surprised that some prices have surged?” bellows Hugh from his cave in St Barts.  The boys consider a means to overcoming their differences and suggest that the Fed should take note. Tom has an ingenious idea – The Rule of 2 %. That the Fed should only announce a hike in rates should the 10-year Treasury yield breach 2%. But could the Fed ever admit to its lack of omnipotence in the rate setting arena even though the bond market always calls it right? Tom then explains why macro managers own gold in their hedge funds - hint, it’s the cheapest inflation hedge. This is macro conjecture for grown-ups and part I concludes with a review of a recent and revelatory thread by Michael Pettis, a prominent macro economist. Does China’s undervalued exchange rate and / or low wages export deflation onto an unsuspecting West? The boys de-construct the logic to confirm that yes, it is trade policy and not interest rates that govern our financial universe. Unless surplus nations mend their ways, risk-free rates will likely remain pinned to the floor and cautious investors will continue to forgo maximising future returns in favour of avoiding even greater losses.  ⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...

Send us a textHedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, again invites his former colleague, Tom Roderick, who manages macro at Trium in London, to review the revelatory and impending bust of China's legendary Evergrande Property. Macro hasn't been seen in Chinese waters for almost a decade. A strong currency with a positive carry and a stock market seemingly impervious to shocking state interventions has ensured a lack of willing naysayers. The Acid Capitalist, Hugh, and Tom, explains how China's property companies were the safest stocks in the global sector owing to their ability to transfer risk quickly. That the least risky companies are now in jeopardy does not bode well especially as Chinese property, relative to household wealth, is 4x greater than in the US. The boys consider a bull market in fear where sovereign Chinese bonds will supplant property as the de facto collateral position. They can conceive of a steeply inverted yield in a land more accustomed to wearing flats and they ask whether flaunting opulence and the mania for luxury may not sit well with the modern creed of common prosperity. Buckle up! This is macro conjecture for grown-ups.Chapters:00:00 Shared Confessions China's Geometric Risk Taking02:45 Why Macro didn't Short the Red Lines05:15 Why the $ is red Cabbage in Beijing10:55 China Property Market was Risk Free15:35 Fechner and the Geometry of Chinese GDP Growth17:25 Why Now ? And the Grapes of Wrath21:30 FX chart, Mad Max Leverage Internal or External ?26:45 Everything is Macro32:40 Is there a China Macro Trade with no Tears for Fears?37:35 China the Land Of Flat Yield Curves40.45 Stay At the Money with Your Strikes42:00 Apathy is the Catalyst for Perplexing & Engaging Trades46:15 Common Prosperity Questions Luxury Valuations⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...

Send us a textHedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, invites former investment partner, Tom Roderick, to dive under the hood and examine how one becomes a hedge fund manager. They revisit the summer of 2005, the S&P has been marooned for 2 years moving sideways as the economy and corporate profitability improve. What would an aspiring young manager do?Hedge fund pirate Hugh Hendry chronicles the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. Hugh's discussions with other though leaders are deployed as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he's thinking and why in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabe can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights. This week we find a rather pallid Hugh cursing his demons from the night before and his newfound love of Pickle-Ball and tequila. Tom quizzes him on why he was 75% net long and not 35% or 120% long? And how did he size risk positions? How did he seek to optimize his portfolio in a world before the rule books had been written. Was this risk taking on the hoof, a form of dopamine bingo, with creativity the deciding risk factor? Hugh and Tom reveal all.Chapters:00:00 Shared Confessions Acid Capitalist05:10 Optimal Risk Sizing10:30 Soros / Druckenmiller Lite Risk Model14:00 Losing My Curiosity15:15 The macro narrative of 200518:00 The Status Quo Changing21:00 Dopamine Bingo - Creativity at Risk (CaR)22:30 Eclectica Fund Attribution28:00 Longs 2x Shorts but shorts bigger than longs..? 30:00 2005 the year institutions crashed the Commodity scene35:00 Not a Bull Mkt till you've had Violent, Painful Corrections⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...

Send us a textHedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, invites digital fashion entrepreneur, Karinna Knobbs, to provide another overlay between macro and tech and maybe even fashion? Ever wondered how hedge fund managers develop their ideas? Watch as Hugh interviews Karinna and they discuss THE DEMATERIALISED, an experimental marketspace for digital fashion including a system for the creation and trading of NFTs. Karinna founded the site with Marjorie Hernandez.Hedge fund pirate Hugh Hendry chronicles the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. Hugh's discussions with other though leaders are deployed as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he's thinking and why in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights. This week we find Hugh deep in thought and yearning to take macro, commercial. In a world dominated by surging asset prices and the gulf between the haves and have nots, Hugh quizzes Karinna to better understand the opportunity - can we make everything affordable? Ever wanted to eavesdrop on an interesting question? Ever wondered what it would feel like to be grilled by a grizzly hedge fund manager? Here's your opportunity.  Nothing is left unsaid, consumer psychology, Cracker - the legendary British tv series - asymmetric reality try-ons. Join us for some trans media storytellingChaoters:00:00 Shared Confessions The Pattern Seeker02:15 Multi Site Villa Rental St Barts03:21 Good for everyone: creator platform influencer consumer05:00 One third of the world population are gamers06:30 Making Everything Affordable11:25 Trans Media Story Telling16:00 Asymmetric Reality Try Ons18:30 The Drop $3.1M in 7 minutes23:30 $6 Sneakers 28:00 A Sexy Functional Platform29:30 A Spatial Web in the Metaverse⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...

Send us a textHedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, invites technology savant, Benedict Evans, to provide an overlay between macro and tech. Together they explore the new questions: crypto, machine learning, shifts in ecommerce, what's happening in media, China, and it's 900 million users and their significance on the rest of the world.Hedge fund pirate Hugh Hendry chronicles the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Eclectica Fund. Hugh's discussions with other though leaders are deployed as a hedge fund boot camp to reveal what he's thinking and why in real time. No new Hedge Fund wannabee can afford to miss the journey to the present day where Hugh reveals and expounds upon his latest macro insights. This week they also discuss the convexity of adoption and why crypto as a tradeable asset could be as, or more effective, to the pressing issue of today - how do you kick-start a new network or community. Is it more effective than Instagram spending? The boys discuss. Hugh is ready to proclaim a new macro world. He can see a future were the economy turns people into assets. He gets very excited.Chapters:00:00 Shared Confessions Is it possible to tokenise knowledge04:05 Comparing Crypto to Opensource technology07:35 The Convexity of Adoption11:40 Turn People Into Assets13:45 The Irrevocability Bug of Tokens14:30 All Financial Innovations go to far17:15 Instagram reached 50m users with 7 people19:00 Apple's new Ad Model20:25 Duck Duck Go...The Google Token23:50 Today's Icons - Zero Marketing25:20 L'Oreal does 25% Sales online28:25 Chinese Concepts Go Global⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...