Nicholas Gruen

I discuss Trump's tariffs with Leon Gettler, how economists aren't telling the whole truth about those Tariffs. Trump is wrong when he says foreigners will pay them. But he's not all wrong.

I talk to Leon Gettler about the way electoral funding is manipulated by the major parties to entrench their own power. Democracy is supposed to be a competition, not a rigged game, yet we see politicians making decisions that serve their own interests rather than the public good.I argue that it's absurd to have politicians determining the terms of political competition — they should have no more to do with that than they should with setting electoral boundaries. We need a new kind of institution—one that takes key decisions like electoral out of the hands of politicians and puts them in the hands of a jury of everyday Australians. I discuss the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission, a model that has helped clean up gerrymandering in the U.S., and how a similar approach could work here.

In this after-dinner talk to the Radix conference on Resilient Democracy at St George's House on Feb 20th, I lay out a different way of thinking about democracy — one that challenges the assumption that elections are the only legitimate form of representation. Democracies mix two approaches: representation by election and representation by sampling. But in modern politics, we’ve sidelined the latter, except in the judicial system.Elections don’t just select representatives; they shape the kind of people who rise to power. The system favours self-promotion, rewards spin, and turns politics into a competition for attention rather than a forum for governing. We assume elections will keep politicians accountable, but in practice, they reinforce a cycle where honesty is a liability and persuasion takes priority over substance.Representation by sampling works differently. When people are selected by lottery to deliberate on political issues, they tend to engage with one another in ways that cut through party lines and ideological divides. I explore examples of how this has worked, from ancient Athens to modern citizen assemblies, and outline a proposal: a standing Citizens’ Assembly to sit alongside existing institutions, providing an independent check on government.This isn’t about replacing elections, but about balancing them with another democratic principle—one we’ve neglected for too long.The Conference Website is here. The video of the talk can be found here.

In this discussion, Gene Tunny and I discuss my leading article in my Substack last week. There I agued that our political systems are built on representing people through elections whereas there’s another way to represent the people — by sampling. We can create bodies that are representative of the people because they’re chosen by lottery from the people. And here’s the thing. The systems built on these two ways of representing the people are so different they can be thought of as two different strands of DNA in our democracy. And I want that other way to represent the people — as occurs in juries — to play a much larger role in our political system. But how to bring that about? Well, it’s quite likely that Australia will have a hung parliament after the next election — that any government that forms will need the support of a growing cross-bench. So I want that cross-bench to demand as a condition of supporting one side or the other that it establish a citizen assembly. And we need a standing citizen assembly, rather than temporary, subject-specific ones. Why? For reasons discussed in the article — which is here. Please join us in the discussion below.

An interview with me on Victoria's 3AW Wide World of Sports

An interview with ABC Hobart on the release of my report on the Hobart Stadium which you can download from this link: https://tinyurl.com/GruenReport

I joined Peter Clarke and Margo Kingston on their Transitzone podcast. Here's their own description of our discussion. _________________________________________________ This last week of the election campaign has seen Donald Trump become even more overheated in his rhetoric. His fixation on whether Kamala Harris had a summer job working for McDonalds about 40 years ago, as she claims, has become a recurring feature of his rally rants. He has not relented an iota on the Springfield, Haitian attacks or his 2020, “rigged” election Big Lie, even as the voting machine company, Smartmatic, settles at the last minute a defamation case with far-right outlet NEWSMAX. Fox News is next in that litigation queue But gradually, economic policies are coming into focus with Trump emphasising his across the board tariffs policy and 15% corporate tax offer to encourage manufacturing in the USA plus a grab bag of other throw it against the wall policy promises. Kamala Harris delivered a major speech followed by a solo cable TV interview around HER economic policies. And yes, "opportunity economy" and ‘middle class” were repeated themes from her as you’d expect. There was some detail. Peter Clarke, Margo Kingston with their guest, Nicholas Gruen, discuss the "competing" economic policies of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump (such as they are), with under 4o days to go to the USA election voting day on 5 November.

Here I discuss a speech made by Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor of the RBA on how little forecasters know and how much humbler we should all be. I focus on what he didn't say, which is that the best way to tackle hubris and improve forecasting is to run open forecasting tournaments. Only then can you access 'superforecasters' — those people made famous by Philip Tetlock's bestselling 2015 book but whom official forecasters have never heard of or, having heard of them, try to put out of their mind.

Me and Leon Gettler discuss share our disappointment and dismay that no-one is being held accountable for the disgrace of RoboDebt and talk about unaccountability more generally.