IBF On Demand

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting00:00 Intro01:21 IBF Conferences https://ibf.org/forecasting-and-plann...02:48 A peak inside my forecasting tool box05:00 The types of forecasting methods available to you 08:33 How to decide which method to use - accuracy vs interpretability 12:41 The most common methods used in business forecasting13:36 Judgmental methods: sales force, jury method, expert opinion, Delphi method17:09 Time series forecasting: naïve, average, decomposition, exponential smoothing23:55 Causal and relationship methods: simple linear, multiples, logistic, ratios26:30 Machine learning: Bayesian, logistic, trees, neural networks"28:30 Clustering: constraint, hierarchical, distribution, centroid 30:45 How to pick the best modelSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting00:00 Intro04:19 How to you keep teams engaged during S&OP transformation projects06:07 How to get different functions talking the same language 07:45 The "yes and" principle 08:50 Using data and KPIs to reaching consensus across the organization 10:39 The value of cross-functional change management team11:50 Using external training to unite people towards the goal 14:55 The biggest benefit of external training for S&OP organizations16:35 Cutting out unnecessary meetings 18:35 What IBF training does for S&OP organizations22:22 First step if you're considering S&OP trainingSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting 00:00 Intro01:15 Online Training Course in Demand Planning, Forecasting & Planning02:44 Write for the Journal of Business Forecasting or www.demand-planning.com05:00 Women in demand planning 09:45 Demand planning at Tesla14:43 How to attract more women to demand planning 17:12 The impact of diversity on business performance 29:30 Come speak at an IBF conference or write an articleSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

Get Eric's book, 'Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting' here: https://bit.ly/predictive-analytics-bookCome to IBF's Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting Conference from April 26-28. Details & registration: https://bit.ly/3qfU2hFSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

00:00 Introduction01:57 M6 Forecasting Competition - forecasting Walmart sales03:25 Forecasting wizard, Gee Thompson05:20 Gee's approach to the Walmart forecasting competition 08:00 Why Gee goes against the machine learning trend09:35 Proving there's a place for traditional statistical models and human intelligence 12:43 Manual multipliers for seasonality 14:30 Explaining the Innovation State Space Model - is it a kind of Holt Winters method? 22:05 Probabilistic forecasting is here to stay25:30 How to integrate ML into statistical forecastingSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

01:58 Recapping what S&OP/IBP is and don't worry about the acronym they're calling it05:00 Get IBF to help you implement S&OP/IBP07:44 What we're getting out of a good S&OP/IBP process10:00 Percentage improvement to your bottom line you can expect 12:00 Where the bottom line improvements come from13:08 The other, non-tangible benefits of S&OP/IBP14:50 Annualized ROI for a $500 m company 17:43 Improvements in operating costs16:15 Top top line growth16:30 Inventory improvements 16:48 Forecast accuracy19:30 How long it takes to see the benefits25:00 Caution - these results are based on mature/Vanguard organizations 26:46 Use IBF's S&OP maturity model for free 29:35 IBF training and conferences ibf.org/eventsSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting01:48 IBF events are back! Starting with S&OP/IBP Boot Camp03:44 Showing the value of S&OP/IBP and ROI from implementation08:30  4 major costs: acquisition, implementation, operating, improvement09:40 Cost 1: Acquisition costs15:17 Cost 2: Implementation costs (including training) 18:40 IBF consulting and assessments 22:22 Cost 3: Operating costs26:01 Cost 4: Improvement costs27:50 Total costs 30:28 Is it worth it? Measuring the upsideRegister for IBF's S&OP/IBP Boot Camp in Scottsdale from February 16-18: https://bit.ly/IBFSCOTTSDALEIBF's S&OP/IBP consulting and assessments: https://bit.ly/IBF-CONSULTINGSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

01:44 S&OP needs a strategy02:45 Dr. Bram Desmet, author of 'Supply Chain Strategy and Financial Metrics'05:30 The supply chain triangle: service, cost and cash08:00 Strategic S&OP11:27 Pick your strategy: Product Leadership, Customer Intimacy or Operational Excellence 17:07 Workout a strategy for S&OP you will lose20:33 How does COVID impact S&OP strategy?24:40 Best KPIs for the cost, service and cash triangle27:00 How Business Efficiency Planning (BEP) helps connect planning to strategy 31:37 Scottsdale S&OP/IBP Boot Camp, February 16-18Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecastingSee IBF's list of 2022 of training events and conferences: https://bit.ly/IBFEVENTS01:30 Beware inflation - how it will impact your business05:44 Finance's role in IBP - financializing the plan07:43 IBP is a mechanism for implementing strategy 09:00 What happens when Finance doesn't trust the forecast/demand plan12:38 How do you get Finance to use your plans?18:18 Making IBP more strategic for the longer term26:50 Differences between the forecast and the budget27:42 Incorporate changes as they occur, understand drivers of demand 28:42 Using IBP for long term visibility into P&LSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org

IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting01:38 CEO's don't get demand planning 03:52 #1 Forecast error is not the goal08:15 #2: Forecasts are not the same as targets11:47 #3: Don't manipulate the forecast to justify decisions16:09 #4: Stop making our job harder!23:10 #5: Success depends on specializationSupport the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org