China in the World

Despite intense scrutiny and analysis surrounding China’s economy, there is still no consensus on how best to understand China’s increasingly complex markets. How should we view China’s economy and what are key indicators for its future development? In this podcast, Paul Haenle sat down with Carnegie Senior Fellow Yukon Huang to discuss his new book, Cracking the China Conundrum: Why Conventional Economic Wisdom Is Wrong and evaluate pressing issues in U.S.-China economic relations.

A fierce debate is raging in China over the best policy for dealing with North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Recent rhetoric between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jung-un, in which both men publicly attacked and shamed each other, has further complicated and added urgency to that debate. In this podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Dr. Cheng Xiaohe, an associate professor at the School of International Studies and Deputy Director of Center for China’s International Strategic Studies at Renmin University of China, to discuss the internal debate on China’s North Korea policy and understand the implications of Trump and Kim Jung-un’s heated rhetoric.

What are Chinese “red lines” when it comes to the Korean Peninsula? What further actions by Pyongyang might lead China to fundamentally shift its approach to one that involves more comprehensive pressure and sanctions, such as a complete oil embargo? In this podcast, Dr. Tong Zhao, a fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program based at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, tells Paul Haenle that while the sixth nuclear test did not cross a Chinese “red line”, there are actions North Korea could take that would do so.Most notably, if North Korea were to launch a nuclear warhead and detonate it over the Pacific Ocean, that would cross Beijing’s “red line” and lead to a significantly harsher stance towards the regime, Zhao argued. This is especially alarming given statements by North Korea’s Foreign Minister, Ri Yong Ho, on September 22nd, that indicated North Korea may be preparing to do just that.

The United States and China agreed in 2015 that neither government would support or conduct cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property, and committed to working with international partners to identify appropriate norms in cyberspace. Both countries are expected to continue discussions on a broad range of cybersecurity issues at the Law Enforcement and Cyber Security Dialogue, established during the Mar-a-Lago summit in April . In this podcast, Paul Haenle sat down with Tim Maurer, co-director and fellow at the Carnegie Endowment’s new Cyber Policy Initiative, to discuss the global debate surrounding cyber norms and the outlook for future collaboration on cybersecurity.

A positive relationship between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, is crucial for promoting global growth and development. The bilateral relationship, however, has become increasingly fraught by disagreements over what a “fair” economic relationship entails. In this podcast, Paul Haenle sat down with Carnegie Senior Fellow Yukon Huang to discuss major issues in U.S.-China economic relations.Yukon explained that many Americans incorrectly attribute the United States’ large trade deficit with China to bilateral issues, when trade is inherently a multilateral dynamic. Yukon noted other factors which drive the U.S. trade deficit with China, such as the diverging average savings rate per household in the two countries. In the coming years, Yukon predicted U.S. companies will continue to advocate for China to loosen restrictive investment barriers, especially in the service sector. While China recently indicated it is willing to further open up industries to foreign investment, it remains unclear when these changes will go into effect. Yukon argued that as China continues to develop, regional trade agreements like the former Trans-Pacific Partnership will help apply outside pressure for China to implement domestic reforms. In his view, a regional trade agreement is in in the interest of all parties.

Despite widespread international condemnation of North Korea’s recent inter-continental ballistic missile test, strategic distrust and misperceptions continue to impede deeper cooperation between the United States and China on the nuclear issue. In this podcast, Paul Haenle sat down with Evans Revere, senior director at Albright Stonebridge Group and former principal deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, to discuss the recent DPRK ICBM test and how the United States and China can respond to enhance regional security.

The United States and China have found areas for cooperation on global issues in recent years, including on the Paris Climate Agreement, the Iran nuclear deal, and global pandemics. Despite these successes, relations remain hindered by systematic mistrust and misunderstanding. In this podcast, Paul Haenle sat down with David Firestein, Perot fellow and senior vice president at the EastWest Institute, to discuss his recent report “’Alternative’ Strategic Perceptions in U.S.-China Relations,” which analyzes fundamental misconceptions that are impacting bilateral relations.

As the post-World War II order adjusts to a rising China, America’s predominance in the Asia-Pacific faces new challenges. Over the past five years, China has substantially built up its navy and demonstrated more assertive behavior toward its territorial claims in the South China Sea. In this podcast, Paul Haenle sat down with Robert Ross, a political science professor at Boston College and an associate at the John King Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University, to discuss the shifting tides in the Asia-Pacific and what this means for the new Trump administration.

President Trump will travel to Europe in May for his first time since taking office to meet with EU leaders, attend a NATO meeting, and visit the organization’s headquarters in Brussels. Although he has walked back some of his more extreme criticisms of the European project and transatlantic organization from the campaign, Trump’s unpredictability remains a concern for many American allies. In this podcast, Paul Haenle sat down with Tomas Valasek, the director of Carnegie Europe and former permanent representative of the Slovak Republic to NATO, to discuss the future of transatlantic relations and what shifting dynamics across Europe could mean for China.

One hundred days into Donald Trump’s presidency, he has shocked the establishment and foreign governments with many foreign policy reversals, and also some surprising areas of consistency. In this podcast, Paul Haenle sat down with Jon Finer, former chief of staff to Secretary of State John Kerry and director of policy planning at the U.S. Department of State, to discuss the major takeaways from Trump’s first 100 days in office, and the future of U.S.-China engagement.