Show from 08/02/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest market developments, focusing on the recent Fed meeting and the implications of economic data. Professor Siegel criticizes the Fed’s decision to not cut rates despite signs of a weakening job market and increasing jobless claims. He expresses concern over a potential slowdown in the labor market and comments on the Fed’s neutral rate, inflation trends, and the performance of dividend-paying value stocks amid changing economic conditions. (14:52) Jeremy continues the conversation with Ken Taheny, head of trading and a co-portfolio manager at Foreships Asset Management. Ken discusses the recent turmoil in Asian markets, specifically Japan, highlighting the impact of the yen’s strengthening and the historic sell-off in Japanese equities. He explains the dynamics of the yen carry trade, the potential for a Japanese manufacturing renaissance, and the geopolitical factors influencing currency and market trends. Ken shares his insights into the opportunities in Japanese equities, the value of the yen, and the potential for Japan to become a key player in global high-end manufacturing as supply chains diversify from China. Guest: Kenneth Taheny and his team at Four Ships Asset Management excel in navigating complex trading strategies, having successfully managed significant asset portfolios. Through collaboration with a diverse international clientele, they've honed their expertise in financial services and asset management, ensuring operational excellence and regulatory compliance. Follow Kenneth on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/kenneth-taheny-60554524

Show from 07/26/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel delve into the latest economic data, discussing the current GDP growth rate of 2%, stable jobless claims, and the PCE consumption figures. They note the favorable trends in commodity prices and speculate on the Fed’s potential rate cuts in September, with Professor Siegel suggesting a likely 25 basis points cut. The discussion also covers the political landscape, including the narrowing odds for Trump and the implications for tax policies under a potential Harris administration. (10:51) Jeremy Schwartz continues with Stephen Lee from Logan Capital, focusing on large-cap growth, the real rotation in the market, and how technology is impacting various sectors. Stephen Lee highlights the impact of AI and digital tools on business operations. They also discuss the importance of earnings leadership, where companies demonstrate their ability to grow despite economic challenges. Lee emphasizes the role of good management and technological adoption in driving growth. They touch on the differences between passive and active investment strategies, noting the advantages of identifying growth opportunities earlier than indices. The conversation concludes with insights into sectors benefiting from structural themes like housing, and how companies are adapting to changing market conditions and consumer behaviors. Guest: Stephen is a founding principal of Logan Capital and the firm’s treasurer. As a manager of growth portfolios, Stephen plays an active role in the security selection for the firm’s large cap growth and mid-to-large cap growth portfolios. He is also a member of the Fixed Income team. Before founding Logan Capital with his partners in 1993, Stephen was employed at Mercer Capital Management and Merrill Lynch. He currently serves his community as a member of several investment committees and foundation boards. He is a graduate of Lehigh University with a BS in accounting. Learn more about Stephen at: https://logancapital.com/team/#stephen-s-lee Follow Stephen on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/stephen-lee-b3a53a5

Show from 07/19/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the political dynamics and potential scenarios surrounding the upcoming elections, as well as the implications of recent economic data, including jobless claims, housing, and retail sales figures. Siegel provides insights on the Fed’s anticipated moves and the market rotations between large and small stocks, emphasizing that small stocks may continue to benefit if the Fed cuts rates. (11:28) Jeremy continues with guests Andrew Okrongly and Vin Kravec from the Common Fund, exploring the private credit space. They discuss the surge in demand for private credit and its role as a liquid credit replacement The group touches base on the various strategies within private credit, such as senior lending and asset-based finance. Vin highlights the importance of private credit in enhancing portfolio diversification and its potential for higher yields compared to traditional credit markets. Guests: Andrew Okrongly joined WisdomTree in 2022 as a Director on the Model Portfolios Team. He is responsible for the design and ongoing management of model portfolios and custom solutions for portfolio managers and advisors. Andrew is also a member of the WisdomTree Asset Allocation and Model Portfolio Investment Committees. Prior to joining WisdomTree, Andrew was a Director on the Outsourced Chief Investment Officer (OCIO) team at Commonfund, where he was responsible for macro-economic analysis and advising institutional clients on strategic and tactical asset allocation. Andrew began his career at BlackRock where he held a variety of fixed income and multi-asset investment roles. Andrew received a BBA degree from the University of Michigan and is a holder of the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. He is a holder of the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. Vincent Kravec is a member of the Commonfund OCIO Investment team and is primarily responsible for investment monitoring, manager sourcing, rebalancing and reporting for investment portfolios with a focus in fixed income and credit strategies. Prior to joining Commonfund, Vincent was with Lazard Asset Management as a member of the Fixed Income operations staff. While at Lazard he was a trading assistant on the Emerging Markets team. He was also a supervisor in Fixed Income Accounting and had responsibilities in trading operations involving allocating trades and resolving trade problems for corporates, treasuries, municipals, asset backs and FX trading desks. Previous experience includes positions at Morgan Stanley, Alliance Capital and Evaluation Associates. Vincent earned his M.B.A. in from New York University’s Stern School of Business and his B.A. from Fairfield University. He is also a CFA charter holder. Learn more about Andrew at: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/andrew-okrongly Follow Andrew on X(Twitter): @AOkrongly Learn more about Vin at: https://www.commonfund.org/commonfund-teams/outsourced-cio-team Follow Vin on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/vin-kravec-cfa-2a610b10

Professor Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz delve into market trends, focusing on inflation data's impact on Federal Reserve decisions. Siegel notes the positive CPI report potentially leading to rate cuts, while Schwartz discusses sector reactions to economic indicators and future rate adjustments.

David Rothschild, Senior economist at Microsoft, discusses online misinformation, media consumption nuances, algorithmic influence limits, user content choice, social media's role in political polarization, AI's societal effects, generative AI opportunities/challenges, Media Bias Detector insights, and future media/tech trends.

Show from 06/28/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel kick off the episode discussing recent market trends and political impacts on the stock market, particularly focusing on the market’s reactions to political debates and economic indicators such as housing starts, trade deficits, and GDP growth estimates. Professor Siegel notes the persistent high interest rates affecting housing prices and the soft economic data in various sectors. He concludes with his outlook on the Federal Reserves potential actions in the upcoming meetings. (11:52) Jeremy continues the conversation with San Francisco Fed Research Advisor John Mondragon, who delves into the intricacies of measuring housing and inflation metrics, particularly the CPI and owner’s equivalent rent (OER). They discuss the lag in rent inflation data and its implications on current economic assessments. Mondragon also touches on his research on housing supply dynamics and the long-term impact of housing construction on prices. Following this, Warren Pies from 3Fourteen Research joins to share his market outlook for the second half of the year. He highlights the persistent inflationary pressures in the housing market and forecasts a continued bullish trend driven by a potential Fed pivot and credit expansion narrative. Pies emphasizes the importance of sentiment and positioning in market dynamics, and discusses strategic asset allocation focusing on quality stocks and alternative investments. Guests: John Mondragon is a research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. He works on the mortgage and housing markets and empirical macroeconomics. Prior to founding 3Fourteen Research, Warren Pies led Ned Davis Research’s Energy and Commodity strategy. In that role, he built the firm’s commodity-related studies, models, and unique indicators. His research combines proprietary fundamental, technical and macro indicators to identify major investment themes and market trends affecting capital markets. Learn more about John at: https://sites.google.com/site/johnnelsonmondragon/ Follow John on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/john-mondragon-250028138 Learn more about Warren at: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/about Follow Warren on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/warren-pies-erp-1b999437

The podcast delves into lower economic data and jobless claims, NVIDIA's stock movements, softness in the housing market, and the impact of the upcoming presidential debate on stocks. They also discuss market trends, technical analysis, the U.S. market's performance, China as an investment opportunity, and the importance of understanding market signals. Additionally, they emphasize adapting to fast-paced market changes and avoiding noise in investment decisions.

Financial expert Philippe Gijsels discusses long-term inflationary trends driven by aging demographics, climate change, and debt. He emphasizes the importance of real assets in an inflationary environment and the potential for significant developments in commodities and clean tech sectors. The podcast also covers market trends, Fed rate cuts, elections impact on markets, investing in a changing economic landscape, multi-globalization, AI, and tech valuations.

Show from 06/7/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel dive into this week’s market data, highlighting unexpected job growth and its implications on the economy. Professor Siegel notes the market’s resilience despite bond market fluctuations, and emphasizes the potential impact of upcoming FOMC meetings and CPI reports. (10:47) Jeremy Schwartz continues the discussion with Ylli Bajraktari, CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project. They explore the strategic importance of technology and innovation in maintaining global competitiveness, particularly against China. Ylli discusses the parallels between their new document and the Cold War-era NSC 68, and outlines the critical role of AI and other emerging technologies in the geopolitical landscape. They also touch on the necessity for public-private partnerships and the bipartisan support needed to stay ahead in the technology race. Guest: Ylli Bajraktari is the President and CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project. Prior to launching SCSP, Ylli served as the Executive Director of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. Prior to joining NSCAI, he served as Chief of Staff to the National Security Advisor LTG H.R. McMaster, held a variety of leadership roles for former Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work, and served as Special Assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dempsey. Originally joining the Department of Defense in 2010, he served in the Office of the Undersecretary for Policy as a country director for Afghanistan, and later India. Mr. Bajraktari is the recipient of the Department of Defense Distinguished Civilian Service Medal – the highest award given to career DoD civilian employees. Learn more about Ylli at: https://www.scsp.ai/ylli-bajraktari/ Follow Ylli on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/ylli-bajraktari-5b101326b

Show from 05/31/24 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss recent market trends, starting with the latest inflation data, earnings season results, and current tech sector weaknesses. Professor Siegel comments on the recent jury decision on Trump, noting it had no significant market impact. Professor Siegel anticipates a slowdown in GDP growth but does not foresee a recession. (09:03) Jeremy continues the conversation with Adam Phillips, Managing Director of Investments at EP Wealth Advisors. Adam provides an overview of EP Wealth Advisors, emphasizing their focus on comprehensive financial planning and investment management. He discusses how election uncertainties impact clients’ investment strategies and the broader market. He also explains the firm’s approach to managing portfolios, highlighting a preference for high-quality investments and strategic diversification. Adam noted an increased interest in international investments, particularly in Japan and Europe. On the fixed income front, Adam describes their strategy of managing duration and maintaining exposure to high-quality bonds while cautiously incorporating strategic income assets. Adam also touches on the role of alternative investments in client portfolios, including private credit, private equity, and other non-traditional assets. He underscores the importance of these investments in achieving diversification and managing risk in the current economic environment. Guest: Adam N. Phillips, CFA, CAIA, CFP® has a strong background in investments and portfolio strategy. Adam N. has held various senior level positions at EP Wealth Advisors and City National Rochdale, where Adam N. has worked with high net worth, trust, and institutional clients. With an MBA from UCLA Anderson School of Management and a BS in Business Administration from USC Marshall School of Business, Adam's expertise in asset allocation, security selection, and tax management make him a valuable asset in the finance industry. Learn more about Adam at: https://theorg.com/org/ep-wealth-advisors/org-chart/adam-n-phillips-cfa-caia-cfp Follow Adam on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/adamnphillips