Behind the Markets Podcast

Show from 8/18/23 Prof. Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz begin by highlighting the significant surge in 10-year and TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) yields to their highest levels in decades. They discuss the remarkable increase from negative rates a few years ago, along with the equity premium's alignment with historical averages, reflecting overall strength in the economy. With upcoming talks from Powell, no significant changes are anticipated, emphasizing a continued commitment to data dependency. (10:24) Peter and Julia then join the discussion to examine the nuanced economy and the current state of the labor market. The conversation shifts to the impact of rising interest rates on small and medium-sized businesses and the factors contributing to inflation, highlighting cautious spending and the indication that higher inflation may persist. They also delve into the quality of labor statistics, challenges with response rates in surveys, biases in capturing data, and a bullish outlook on energy, underscoring potential reasons for a rise in oil prices. Guest: Peter Boockvar is solely an investment advisor representative of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC, a registered investment adviser and separate entity from LPL Financial. Peter serves as Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group. Learn more at: https://www.bleakley.com/about/our-team Follow him on Twitter: @pboockvar Guest: Julia Pollak is Chief Economist at ZipRecruiter. She leads ZipRecruiter's economic research team, which provides insights and analysis on current labor market trends and the future of work. Learn more at: https://www.ziprecruiter.com/blog/ Follow her on Twitter: @juliaonjobs

Show from 8/11/23 Prof. Siegel joins Jeremy Schwartz to dissect the current state of the economy. They discuss everything from jobless claims and inflation to the roles of major companies like Tesla and Ford. With an optimistic yet cautious tone, Prof. Siegel offers a glimpse into what the future may hold for the markets. (10:07) Dom Rizzo, a portfolio manager for T Rowe Price, discusses his career and the global technology equity strategy with particular focus on the semiconductor industry. He highlights Nvidia's powerful GPU technology and its linchpin status, predicting the AI chip market's significant growth. The conversation also covers the potential for a second source in the market, such as AMD, and the need for continuous innovation within the semiconductor space. AI is viewed as a major productivity boost, impacting areas like natural language processing and cybersecurity. Large companies with data and distribution are expected to benefit, with AI augmenting tasks rather than replacing them in the short term, offering efficiency gains across various industries. Guest: Dominic Rizzo is the portfolio manager of the Global Technology Equity Strategy. He is a vice president of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc., and T. Rowe Price International Ltd. Learn more at: https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/au/en/bios/dom-rizzo.html Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Show from 8/4/23 Doomberg begins by telling us about who they are and what their newsletter is about. The writers are able to stay anonymous and write about topics including economy, climate and policy without fear of losing their careers in the fields they specialize in. He tells us that climate happens to be the most controversial topic with carbon reduction being the most heated debate. He dives deep into the importance of nuclear power and how it is the future of power for the world. He covers the controversy surrounding it, countries actively expanding their nuclear programs and success stories that can be used as examples to persuade fear based opinions. He talks about investing into different areas of energy. He also discusses the gold market, bitcoins future and train derailments. Guest: Doomberg is a subscription based newsletter highlighting the fundamentals missing from many economic and policy decisions. The Substack articles are written by a small group of former executives, free to write without boundaries. Learn more at: https://doomberg.substack.com/ Follow Doomberg on Twitter: @DoombergT

Show from 7/28/23 Prof. Siegel kicks off with his take on the recent news conference from the Fed. He believes that we are not as close to a recession as previously thought, due to the stability of some essential commodities (10:28). Torsten agrees with the Professor, highlighting how the Fed is slowing the economy down with interest rate hikes. He explains his concern that there could be a huge shift in foreign asset allocations, Japan currently being the largest with over a trillion dollars in US treasuries. Torsten and the Professor go back and forth on market rate hikes and what the potential outcome of the market could be. They discuss which investments are better to hedge at this point in time. Torsten talks about regional banking systems and his research into that area. Guest: Torsten Slok is Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo. Prior to joining in 2020, Torsten worked for 15 years on the sell-side, where his team was top-ranked by Institutional Investor in fixed income and equities for ten years. Previously, he worked at the OECD in Paris in the Money and Finance Division and the Structural Policy Analysis Division. Before joining the OECD, Torsten was with the IMF in the division responsible for writing the World Economic Outlook, and the division responsible for China, Hong Kong, and Mongolia. Learn more at: https://www.apollo.com/about-apollo/our-people/torsten-slok Follow Torsten on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/torsten-slok-8a7520a2

Show from 7/21/23 Prof. Siegel calls in live from his cruise to share his big takes on today's current market. He explains to us his shift of opinion towards the Feds and what he is looking into to suggest market recovery (13:25). Alejandro starts by telling us what he researches and studies at the University of Florida. He explains his use of AI to calculate rates and how it could be used by companies to mitigate risks. Through his research, he explains his beliefs on using many different signals to attain the data you need from machine learning. He elaborates on how performance factors can greatly affect outcomes of these data sets. The group discusses the results of testing Chat GPT’s ability to calculate these data sets and whether it’s a useful tool for market predictions. He discusses the future research and advancements in using AI models to add in finance decisions. Guest: Alejandro Lopez-Lira is an Assistant professor of Finance at Warrington College of Business, University of Florida. He holds a PhD in Finance from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. His research covers topics in Empirical Asset Pricing, Machine Learning and Textual Analysis. Learn more at: https://alejandrolopezlira.site/ Follow Alejandro on Twitter: @alejandroll10 Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Show from 7/14/23 Prof. Siegel begins with the positive news of inflation coming in below expectations. He highlights the strength of the real economy, citing low initial jobless claims and strong consumer sentiment. Market sentiment is optimistic, with money flowing back into the market and a favorable outlook for investors. (00:12:50) Warren focuses on the potential margin contraction in 2024 earnings due to wage pressures and interest expenses, expressing concern about the excessive optimism in the market. He also mentions that while AI may enhance productivity in the long term, its efficiency gains might not materialize in time to support the 2024 earnings picture. Nitesh discusses the disappointment in China's reopening and the absence of substantial stimulus measures to drive growth. While China has been strategically accumulating raw materials and investing in grid expenditures for the energy transition, questions arise about its ability to maintain demand growth, especially in the oil market. Guest: Prior to founding 3Fourteen Research, Warren led Ned Davis Research’s Energy and Commodity strategy. In that role, he built the firm’s commodity-related studies, models, and unique indicators. His research combines proprietary fundamental, technical and macro indicators to identify major investment themes and market trends affecting capital markets. Warren is a frequent contributor to the media including participating in the 2013 Barron’s MLP Roundtable discussion, the Wall Street Journal, CNBC, and RealVision. In 2014, Euromoney Institutional Investor awarded Warren the Padraic Fallon award for his research on the Shale Revolution. Outside of the research world, Warren has worked as a practicing attorney specializing in regulatory approvals for various industrial activities and projects. He has also owned, operated, and sold a portfolio of self-storage properties to a national REIT. Learn more at: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/about Follow Warren on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/warren-pies-erp-1b999437/ Nitesh Shah is Head of Commodities & Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow Nitesh on Twitter: @NiteshShahWT

Show from 07/07/23 Prof. Siegel talks to us about the new market data and the current unemployment rate reports this week (10:35). Jeremy and Chris are joined today by Simon who discusses his new book Power and Progress: Our 1000-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity. They talk about the importance of AI for human-kind and its comparison to previous technologies. Simon gets into detail on the positive implications of AI but warns against the potential negatives. They debate whether people should support purchasing goods from countries that do not have safe guards for surveillance tech. Simon gives his opinion on the tech elite, government involvement, as well as job creation and tax inequality tied with advancements in technology. Guest: Simon Johnson is the Ronald A. Kurtz (1954) Professor of Entrepreneurship at the MIT Sloan School of Management, where he is head of the Global Economics and Management group. In 2007-08 he was chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, and he currently co-chairs the CFA Institute Systemic Risk Council. In February 2021, Johnson joined the board of directors of Fannie Mae. Johnson’s most recent book, with Daron Acemoglu, Power and Progress: Our 1000-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity, explores the history and economics of major technological transformations up to and including the latest developments in Artificial Intelligence. Learn more at: https://mitsloan.mit.edu/faculty/directory/simon-johnson Follow him on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-johnson-17b40645/ Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Show from 06/30/23 Prof. Siegel talks to us about the current positive market standings this week and his hesitation with the Feds ongoing decisions. Jeremy is joined by Raymond who tells us a little bit about himself, his background and the firms he is a part of (09:33). He explains why people would want to use services at Relative Sentiment Technologies. He gives us his perspective on the retail market, where it’s headed and if it is the future smart strategy. They discuss customizations and suggestions based off risk exposure and his research across asset classes. He gives us insight into positioning due to surveys and analysis of the market. We hear his opinions on the international markets as they stand today and what is potentially driving the trends. Guest: Raymond Micaletti is the co-founder and CIO of Relative Sentiment Technologies, LLC. He has over 20 years' experience at major investment banks (JPMorgan, Barclays), hedge funds (Fortress Investment Group), and asset management firms where his primary focus has been on the research, development, and management of systematic investment strategies. In 2018, he laid the groundwork for RST by publishing a paper on a new method for tactical asset allocation using relative sentiment. An active topic on which he continues to research and publish. A native of western Pennsylvania, Ray holds a B.S. in civil engineering from the University of Notre Dame and a Ph.D. in engineering mechanics from Princeton University. Learn more at: https://relativesentiment.com/about-us.html Follow him on Twitter: @RelSentTech

Show from 6/23/23 Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel discuss how the recent job reports and global manufacturing data have raised concerns about a softening economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell provided no new information during his congressional appearance, and remains committed to anticipated interest rate hikes. Additionally, the housing market continues to experience a significant surge in prices, which may impact consumer spending in the future. Prof. Daniel Rock and Prof. Siegel discuss the rapid adoption of chat GPT and the surprising capabilities of AI models, particularly in generating plausible texts. Chris and Prof. Rock discuss the deflationary benefits of new technologies like AI, comparing it to Moore's Law, and emphasize the importance for businesses to ride the wave of technological advancements rather than trying to be at the forefront. They also discuss the geopolitical dynamics of the AI battle, emphasizing the need for accessibility and acknowledging the potential for competition in regions like China and India. Tune in to hear all about the geopolitical dynamics of the AI battle, the potential of large language models, and the use of AI in education and research on this week's episode. Guest: Professor Daniel Rock an Assistant Professor of Operations, Information, and Decisions at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. His research is on the economic effects of digital technologies, with a particular emphasis on the economics of artificial intelligence. He has recently worked on studies addressing the types of occupations that are most exposed to machine learning, measuring the value of AI skillsets to employer firms, and adjusting productivity measurement to include investments in intangible assets. His research has been published in various academic journals and featured in outlets such as The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Harvard Business Review, and Sloan Management Review. Much of his work involves applying cutting-edge data science techniques to analyze datasets from financial market data sources, online resume sites, and job postings. Learn more at: https://oid.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/rockdi/ Follow him on Twitter: @danielrock Chris Gannatti is Global Head of Research at WisdomTree Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Jeremy and the professor are joined today by both Brandon and Nora as they discuss their views on the economy, inflation and what’s happening to farmland. Brandon tells us that inflation isn’t expected to affect agriculture in the way it has affected the Feds. They discuss the bond market and why future cycles are looking so positive, and what’s involved in purchasing and investing in farms. Both Brandon and Nora give us an in depth look into the farming industry and how it ties into the market, how crop yields play a role, and how they choose which farms to invest in. They also give us a view into the future of the farming industry and new technology that could improve the industry as a whole, and talk about the difficulties of finding reliable labor and replacing humans with machines. Guests: Brandon Zick joined Ceres Partners in 2010. He is responsible for managing all investments at Ceres, including farmland and private equity strategies. In this role he supervises valuation analysis, acquisition due diligence, tenant management and acquisition negotiations. Nora Pickens serves as Managing Director of Investments at Mill Creek Capital Advisors, LLC. She has primary responsibility for evaluating fixed income and alternative credit strategies across MCCA’s investment programs. Learn more at: https://www.cerespartners.com/our-team/brandon-zick https://www.millcreekcap.com/ Connect on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/brandon-zick-394a5310 linkedin.com/in/norapickens