Pakistonomy

Where is the rupee headed? Will Pakistan default? In this episode, Uzair talks to Shahrukh Wani about the ongoing crisis in Pakistan, why this is just the latest episode of a long-term crisis, and what needs to change to get out of this. Shahrukh Wani is an economist at the International Growth Centre’s Cities that Work initiative based at the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford. In this role, he supports evidence-based urban economic policy reforms across Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, mainly on public finance and governance. These have included collaborations with policymakers in Afghanistan, Uganda, Pakistan, and Zambia on a range of policy questions — such as on property tax design in Punjab and informal settlements in Lusaka. Shahrukh has also co-authored a variety of policy-focused papers, including on urban governance, transport, public-private partnerships, and taxation in developing countries. He also advises public policy projects such as the UK Government’s Global Future Cities Programme.

The first episode of this year, way back in January 2022, discussed how politics will dominate the economy for the entirety of the year. In this episode, we take a look at how things have shaped up and what the path forward looks like for Pakistan’s chaotic and unstable political scene. This instability is having a disastrous impact on the country’s economy, and Uzair talks to Amber Rahim Shamsi about whether or not there is light at the end of the tunnel here. Amber Rahim Shamsi is Director of the Centre for Excellence in Journalism at the IBA and an award-winning multi-media journalist and free speech advocate, with wide-ranging experience in television, radio, online and the print media. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 2:00 What’s going on with politics today? 12:00 PML-N’s declining political capital 23:00 The military establishment’s role 33:40 Role of foreign allies as guarantors 41:50 The role of incentives in reaching compromise 51:10 Is Pakistan too big to fail?

There has been a flurry of negative news regarding Pakistan's startup ecosystem, with the collapse of Airlift being the biggest story of them all. In this episode, Uzair talks to Ali Farid Khwaja about what led to this collapse, whether this is the end of the boom, and how entrepreneurs and investors should navigate this cycle. Ali Farid Khwaja is Chairman of KTrade Security and has over a decade of experience in the technology and financial sectors.

Energy security has been a pipe-dream for Pakistan, with the country facing numerous economic and energy crises over its history. At its core, the issue revolves around failure to tap into domestic sources of energy in a way that benefits the country's economy. In this episode, Uzair talks to Amir Iqbal about Thar Coal and its potential to improve Pakistan's energy security. While coal is indeed a dirty fossil fuel with environmental challenges, it is a cheap source of energy for many developed and developing countries in the world. Pakistan has failed to utilize its own coal deposits, meaning that the share of coal in the country's energy mix remains miniscule. Given today's global energy crisis, it is important for Pakistan to responsibly tap into its own coal resources to produce cheap power, which is critical to promoting economic and export competitiveness. But this does not mean ignoring the environmental challenges either, and a balanced, measured approach is necessary. Amir was appointed as the Chief Executive Officer of Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company and Thar Foundation on 8th October 2021. He has over 27 years of experience in general management and has led various teams in sales and marketing function across Pakistan, Australia, and Africa. In his prior roles he has served as the Chief Executive Officer for Engro Agritrade, Chief Commercials Officer for Engro Fertilizer and CEO & Managing Director for Bayer Pakistan. He also served as the adjunct faculty at the Lahore School of Management Sciences (LUMS). Reading Recommendations: - Dare to Lead: Brave Work. Tough Conversations. Whole Hearts. by Brene Brown - The Power of Habit by Charles Duhigg - Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahnemann

Access to credit is critical is fueling economic growth, especially by helping promising small businesses scale up and become more efficient. In Pakistan, however, access to credit remains a major challenge, especially because of the crowding out effect, where the financial system finds it easier and more lucrative to lend to the sovereign, which runs high fiscal deficits. In this episode, Uzair talks to Namoos Zaheer about the link between access to private sector credit and growth. We also dive into why lazy banking makes the economic growth challenge much more complex in Pakistan, and how changing incentives and a fiscally prudent sovereign can help change the situation. Namoos Zaheer is a Senior Financial Sector Specialist and leads the World Bank’s financial sector development initiatives in Pakistan. She has led the World Bank’s efforts in developing the housing finance market in Pakistan, including through the establishment of the Pakistan Mortgage Refinance Company. She also leads the Financial Inclusion Project which focuses on access to micro-finance and the promotion of SME finance. Her other areas of engagement are capital market development, digital finance and overall financial sector stability. Prior to this, Namoos worked in financial services in London. Reading Recommendations: - On Human Nature by E.O. Wilson - State of Anxiety by Alain de Botton

Pakistan's higher education sector has been in a state of flux for a long time. From regular cuts to funding to scandals about paper mills, the story has not been great. On top of that, research funded by the HEC has not led to innovation on the commercial end, something a country like Pakistan sorely needs. In this episode, Uzair talks to Dr. Tariq Banuri, Chairman of the Higher Education Commission of Pakistan, on what ails this sector, his vision for reforms, and the path forward. Dr Tariq Banuri holds a PhD from Harvard University and joined HEC as its fourth chairperson. He has extensive experience of working in academia, civil society and national as well as international organisations. He was the member of Steering Committee on Higher Education Reforms, the body that played a vital role in inception of HEC in 2002. He has also worked as Professor of Economics at University of Utah, USA. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:30 What ails higher education today? 14:10 Where does the economy need research-led innovation? 25:50 Building industry-academia collaboration 30:30 Wishlist for reforms 35:50 Reading recommendation Reading Recommendations: - Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance by Robert Pirsig - Dominating Knowledge Edited by Frédérique Apffel Marglin and Stephen A. Marglin

Over the course of this podcast, we have had dozens of conversations on the need to reform the economy. But while we all know the broad scope of reforms that are needed, there is not really a constituency for reforms, across the political aisle, in Pakistan. Dr. Ahsan Iqbal, who is a senior leader of the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz and is currently the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Reform, joins us in this episode to talk about his efforts to build this constituency for reforms. To begin this process, his ministry is organizing the Turnaround Pakistan Conference, whose goal is to engage with people across the spectrum to prioritize and build consensus on these reforms. Reading recommendations: - The Holy Quran with translation - Seven Habits of Highly Effective People by Stephen R. Covey - The Anarchy by William Dalrymple

Political violence has been a major issue facing Pakistan's flawed and floundering democracy for decades. From Karachi to South Punjab, political actors have overtly and covertly deployed violence to gain influence, votes, and power. But why do political actors use violence to achieve these goals? And what are ways to deal with this issue? In this episode, Uzair talks to Dr. Nilofer Siddiqui about political parties and violence. Dr. Siddiqui is an Assistant Professor at the University of Albany. She is also a Nonresident Fellow at the Stimson Center and a Fellow at the Mahbub ul Haq Centre at LUMS. She is author of the book Under the Gun: Political Parties and Violence in Pakistan, which examines why political parties engage in violence and the variation in violence strategies that they employ. Reading Recommendations: - We crossed a bridge and it trembled by Wendy Pearlman - No good men among the living by Anand Gopal - Bring the war home by Kathleen Belew

A record-breaking heatwave has been wreaking havoc across the subcontinent, impact the wheat and mange harvest, setting fire to forests, and giving us a trailer of what climate change can do to our world. In this episode, Uzair talks to Dr. Erum Sattar of what is the latest research showing about where the world is headed and what actions governments and individuals must take to day to reduce the likelihood of the worst-case scenarios becoming a reality. Dr.Erum Sattar is the Program Director of the Sustainable Water Management Program and a Lecturer at the Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University. She is also an Adjunct Professor at the Elizabeth Haub School of Law, Pace University and has taught at Northeastern University School of Law, and the National University of Singapore School of Law where she taught the school’s first-ever course on water law and policy. Reading Recommendations: - Diplomacy and Capitalism: The Political Economy of U.S. Foreign Relations - Water: A Biography by Giulio Boccaletti - Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise by Natalie Hell and Scott Rozelle - Metabolical: The truth about processed food and how it poisons people and the planet by Robert H. Lustig

There is a widely-held belief that strong governments deliver reforms and sustainable growth. Research, however, shows otherwise. In this episode, Uzair talks to Dr. Irfan Nooruddin about his research on this topic, based on his must-read book Coalition Politics and Economic Development: Credibility and the Strength of Weak Governments. Dr. Nooruddin is is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center and the Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani Professor of Indian Politics in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Irfan conducts research in the political economy of development, trade, and investment, and the challenges of democratization in the 21st century. He is the author of The Everyday Crusade (Cambridge University Press, 2022), Elections in Hard Times (Cambridge University Press, 2016), Coalition Politics and Economic Development (Cambridge University Press, 2011) and more than thirty scholarly articles and book chapters. In 2012, he was a Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, DC., and is a Team Member of Lokniti: Programme in Comparative Democracy in New Delhi, India. He has a PhD in Political Science from the University of Michigan and a BA in Economics from Ohio Wesleyan University. He was born and raised in Bombay, India. You can download his book from this link: https://www.coalitionpoliticsandeconomicdevelopment.com/chapters.html Reading recommendations: - Political Order in Changing Societies by Samuel Huntington - Democracy and Development by Adam Jaworski - Scientist: E. O. Wilson: A Life in Nature by Richard Rhodes