Economics Matters with Laurence Kotlikoff

President Trump's interest is largely self interest. According to The NY Times, he has personally pocketed $1.4 billion over the past 12 months. While not stuffing his pockets and those of his family, he has transformed our "shining city upon a hill" into a quasi-fascist state, sold out our allies, upended the rule of law, deployed a private army that murders American citizens in broad daylight, orchestrated political witch hunts, and abrogated our civil liberties, including, of late, the right to bear arms. Whether we'll have a fair and free election in November is anyone's guess. How much of Trump's behavior is dictated by Putin, an inner demon, mental illness, or avarice, no one can say. But the world no longer respects America. It fears and despises America. And it is realigning away from America at a rapid rate. I've invited Anders Åslund back to Economics Matters -- the Podcast to assess the damage, and its perilous implications. Per Anders Åslund is a Swedish economist and former Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. He is also a chairman of the International Advisory Council at the Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE). His work focuses on economic transition from centrally planned to market economies. Åslund served as an economic adviser to the governments of Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Ukraine and from 2003 was director of the Russian and Eurasian Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Åslund was an advocate of early, comprehensive, and radical economic reforms in Russia and Eastern Europe.[1] He worked at the Peterson Institute for International Economics from 2006 to 2015. In 2013, neoconservative David Frum wrote that "Anders Aslund at the Peterson Institute is one of the world's leading experts on the collapse of the planned Soviet economy." From 2010 to 2013 and again in 2022 he contributed to The Moscow Times, an independent English-language newspaper; he is also a long-time contributor to the Kyiv Post.[3]

Paulo Nogueira Batista is one of Brazil’s most prominent, influential, and instrumental economists. Paulo was vice president of the New Development Bank, established by the BRICS in Shanghai, from 2015 to 2017, and Executive Director at the IMF for Brazil and 10 other countries in Washington, from 2007 through 2015.  Paulo, as you'll hear/see, and as his bio clearly documents, is a sober, sophisticated, accomplished global intellectual, actor, and statesman -- someone who thinks deeply and carefully before he speaks. Hence, when he pens a column entitled, "Brazil is Running an Existential Risk," which I reposted in Economics Matters last week, about Brazil's need to obtain nuclear weapons, it's time to sit up and listen.  Take a read of Paulo's column and ponder the meaning of his quote of Clemenceau, “The United States is the first to pass from barbarism to decadence without knowing civilization.” Then watch/listen to this extraordinary podcast. 

Ciff Winston is back on Economics Matters. He's also just out with an impressive new book -- Market Corrections NotGovernment Interventions: A Path to Improve the US Economy. The book is a devastating critique of government policy failures -- policies that the private sector had to ultimately overcome or sidestep. Cliff joins us precisely one year after our podcast on Biden's infrastructure bill, which was passed with great fanfare, but started slow and then ran into Trump executive orders or disorders, depending on your perspective. This is an extraordinary, evidenced-based exposé of the market’s innovative power to creatively destroy market failures, including those engineered and entrenched by both ‘regulators’ and ‘reformists.’ This is surely the most important government policy book yet written.Here's the skinny on Cliff.   Clifford Winston, a nonresident senior fellow in the Brookings Institution’s Economic Studies program, has been with Brookings since 1984. Winston has also been co-editor of the annual microeconomics edition of Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Prior to his fellowship at Brookings, he was an associate professor in the Transportation Systems Division of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Department of Civil Engineering. The author of numerous books and articles, Winston has published “Market Corrections Not Government Interventions: A Path to Improve the U.S. Economy” (2025); “Reforming Occupational Licensing in the U.S.: Reducing Social Costs and Increasing Social Benefits in the Legal, Medical, and Financial Services Professions” editor (2024); “Revitalizing a Nation: Competition and Innovation in the U.S. Transportation Industry” with Jia Yan and Associates (2024); “Gaining Ground: Markets Helping Government” (2021); “Trouble at the Bar: An Economics Perspective on the Legal Profession and Proposals For Reform” with David Burk and Jia Yan (2021); “Autonomous Vehicles: The Road to Economic Growth?” with Quentin Karpilow (2020); “First Thing We Do, Let’s Deregulate All the Lawyers,” with Robert Crandall and Vikram Maheshri (2011); “Last Exit: Privatization and Deregulation of the U.S. Transportation System” (2010); “Government Failure versus Market Failure” (2006); “Deregulation of Network Industries: What’s Next?” with Sam Peltzman (2000); “Essays in Transportation Economics and Policy: A Handbook in Honor of John R. Meyer,” with Jose A. Gomez-Ibanez and William B. Tye (1999); “Alternate Route: Toward Efficient Urban Transportation,” with Chad Shirley (1998); “The Evolution of the Airline Industry,” with Steven A. Morrison (1995); “The Economic Effects of Surface Freight Deregulation,” with Thomas M. Corsi, Curtis M. Grimm, and Carol A. Evans (1990); “Road Work: A New Highway Pricing and Investment Policy,” with Kenneth A. Small and Carol Evans (1989); “Liability: Perspectives and Policy,” with Robert E. Litan (1988); “Blind Intersection? Policy and the Automobile Industry,” co-author (1987); and “The Economic Effects of Airline Deregulation,” with Steven Morrison (1986). His articles have appeared in such journals as the American Economic Review, Econometrica, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Economic Literature, Bell Journal of Economics, and the Rand Journal of Economics. Dr. Winston received his A.B. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley in 1974, his M.Sc. from the London School of Economics in 1975, and his Ph.D. in economics from U.C. Berkeley in 1979.

Innovation is the hot sauce of economic progress. Trevor Chandler is one of the hottest inventors on the planet. Whether it's inventing Covid detection masks, AI-driven portable disease-detection machines, or robotic AI-guided robotic sensors, Trevor is a whirlwind of discovery and practical implementation. Join me in this fascinating and highly entertaining interview with Trevor Chandler. You'll meet his robots, learn about Mask Zero -- the future of pandemic protection, which I previously discussed with Trevor's extraordinary business partner, Adam Pener, and find yourself at the frontier of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), if not Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI). Trevor's patents may well represent not just the hot, but the secret sauce to achieving AGI and ASI.

In a compelling discussion, John Llewellyn, former chief economist at Lehman Brothers and founder of Independent-Economics, shares insights from his extensive experience in global macroeconomics. He explores the heightened geopolitical influences on today's markets and compares current risks to the 2008 financial crisis, emphasizing leverage and opacity. Llewellyn also discusses the implications of AI on jobs and inequality, as well as shifts in European defense due to the Ukraine war. His reflections provide a thought-provoking perspective on today's economic landscape.

Dan is the Wayne Perry Professor of Taxation at NYU Law School, is a graduate of Princeton University and Yale Law School. Before entering law teaching, he spent three years each in private practice, and at the Joint Congressional Committee on Taxation, where he worked on the Tax Reform Act of 1986. In 1987, Shaviro began his teaching career at the University of Chicago Law School, and he moved to NYU in 1995. In 2023, he received the National Tax Association’s Daniel M. Holland Medal, recognizing lifetime achievement in, and outstanding contributions to, public finance.Shaviro’s scholarly work mainly focuses on tax policy and other fiscal policy, along with inequality and the intersections between law, literature, and social science. His books include Bonfires of the American Dream in American Rhetoric, Literature, and Film (2022), Fixing U.S. International Taxation (2014), Decoding the U.S. Corporate Tax (2009), and Do Deficits Matter? (1997). He has also published a novel, Getting It (2010), and a memoir, Now Is Now and Then Is Then.At NYU School of Law Shaviro teaches various tax and other courses, including a scholarly colloquium on tax policy and public finance.

Seth Benzell, an Assistant Professor at Chapman University and Digital Fellow at MIT and Stanford, discusses the complex economics surrounding AI. He delves into the scaling law and how double descent impacts model performance, shedding light on why investors back loss-making companies expecting future gains. Seth also evaluates the considerable financial savings and job replacement potential of AI, while cautioning against overconfidence in immediate breakthroughs. The conversation unpacks AI's implications on labor and the economy, offering keen insights into its future.

Orlando Patterson is simply mesmerizing. We all take "freedom" for granted. But Orlando has studied what it is and isn't -- now and across the millenia. The result of this immensely deep as well as deeply fascinating scholarship is a sober take on what we take for granted -- that freedom is clear cut, fundamental, universal, and here to stay. Orlando sets us straight, not based on opinion but based on decades of profoundly insightful research. Please share this podcast to any and all -- blue, red, and purple. "The Land of the Free and the Brave" is not something to take for granted -- certainly not now when our individual and collective freedoms are subject to daily erosion. In this regard, it is worth recalling these words from President Kennedy.The most powerful single force in the world today is neither Communism nor Capitalism, neither the H-bomb nor the guided missile -- it is man's eternal desire to be free and independent.A public intellectual, Professor Patterson was, for eight years, Special Advisor for Social policy and development to Prime Minister Michael Manley of Jamaica. He was a founding member of Cultural Survival, one of the leading advocacy groups for the rights of indigenous peoples, and was for several years a board member of Freedom House, a major civic organization for the promotion of freedom and democracy around the world. More recently he has chaired the Commission for the Transformation of Education in Jamaicabased in the Office of Prime Minister Andrew Holness of Jamaica. The author of three novels, he has published widely in journals of opinion and the national press, especially the New York Times, where he was a guest columnist for several weeks. His columns have also appeared in Time Magazine, Newsweek, The Wall Street Journal, The Boston Globe, The Jamaica Gleaner, The Public Interest, The New Republic, and The Washington Post.He is the recipient of many awards, including the National Book Award for Non-Fiction which he won in 1991 for his book on freedom; the Distinguished Contribution to Scholarship Award of the American Sociological Association; the Anisfield-Wolf Book Award for Lifetime Achievement in Literature, the Barry Prize of the American Academy of Arts and Letters, and the Hegel Prize from the city of Stuttgart, Germany He holds honorary degrees from several universities, including Yale, London University, the University of Chicago, U.C.L.A. and La Trobe University in Australia. He was awarded both the Order of Distinction and the Order of Merit by the Government of Jamaica. the nation’s third highest national honor. Professor Patterson has been a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences since 1991 and of the American Academy of Science and Letters since its founding in 2024.Orlando Patterson, a historical and comparative sociologist, is the John Cowles Professor of Sociology at Harvard University. He previously held faculty appointments at the University of the West Indies, and the London School of Economics where he received his Ph.D. His academic interests include the origin, culture and practices of freedom; the comparative study of slavery and ethno-racial relations; and the cultural sociology of poverty and underdevelopment with special reference to the Caribbean and African Americans. He has also written on the cultural sociology of sports. Professor Patterson is the author of numerous academic papers and 10 major academic books including, Slavery and Social Death (1982/2018); Freedom in the Making of Western Culture (1991); The Cultural Matrix: Understanding Black Youth (2015); The Confounding Island: Jamaica and the Postcolonial Condition (2019); The Paradox of Freedom: A Biographical Dialog (2023); and Enslavement: Past and Present (2025)

I'm not a big fan of investment advisors. Economics teaches us that not everyone can beat the market. Yet, there are tens of thousands advisors out there who will tell you that they and they alone have the secret sauce. Actually, economics teaches us that no one can beat the market unless they have inside information. But economics also tells us how to keep the market from beating you -- by taking risk, but limiting your downside, diversifying, and following your brain, not your emotions in making investment decisions. Fred has decades of experience valuing roughly 10,000 companies. He also knows that markets can go nuts. Today, a third of the value of the S&P comprises 10 AI companies who have yet to make a profit. So, is an S&P index really diversified? Not so clear. It may simply be everyone’s green dream. Or not. Fred is back to help us better hedge our bets in a time of national, global, and technological upheaval the likes of which we didn’t see in 1929 when things went poof simply because everyone collectively decided they were going poof. In short, we don’t need crazy to go crazy. Fred is pure shelter from the storm - real and imagined. So watch/listen to Fred and pull up the song by you know who on YouTube! Fred has over 40 years of investment and corporate finance experience, as a portfolio manager, a private equity investor and an investment banker. Fred's clients have included Staples (where he was a founding investor); Advanced Micro Devices; Forest Laboratories; ULTA Beauty; Tractor Supply; Berlitz International; Rexnord; Fairchild Industries; Plantronics; and numerous others. Fred is also a highly experienced private equity investor, having invested in more than 80 private companies. Fred received his A.B, cum laude from Harvard College and his MBA with Distinction from Harvard Business School.Prior to founding Lane Generational in September 2020, Fred was Senior Vice President, Investments at Raymond James & Associates, Inc. from October 2014 to September 2020 and also served as Vice Chairman, Investment Banking from May 2009 to October 2014. Fred was Chairman, CEO and Founder of the investment banking firm Lane, Berry & Co. International, LLC (which was acquired by Raymond James in May 2009) from January 2002 through January 2013. Prior to that, Fred was a Managing Director and Principal of Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corporation (DLJ). Fred joined DLJ in 1976 and was instrumental in the growth of DLJ's investment banking business. He also served as Co-Head of the Mergers and Acquisitions Department at DLJ and as Managing Director – Senior Advisor of Credit Suisse First Boston upon CSFB's acquisition of DLJ in 2000.

Steve Laffey is a true American rages-to-riches success story. But Steve took the biblical saying, "to those who have much is owed," fully to heart. After a highly successful career in banking, Steve returned to run for mayor in his birthplace -- Cranston, Rhode Island, taking it from bankruptcy to solvency and growth. His remarkable story is conveyed in this Wikipedia entry. This is Steve's 4th appearance on Economics Matters -- the Podcast. Steve is an expert on America's problems. His film, Fixing America, which he made after serving two terms as mayor of Cranston, is a must see. And stevelaffey.com is a must visit. Steve tells it like it is and his survey of President Trump's first nine months -- its damage to our international standing, to our rule of law, to our civility, to our economy, and to our comity -- holds no bars. What we need is not to make America great again. What we need is to make America America again. Steve Laffey reminds us of just what that means and looks like.