Economics Matters with Laurence Kotlikoff

I'm not a big fan of investment advisors. Economics teaches us that not everyone can beat the market. Yet, there are tens of thousands advisors out there who will tell you that they and they alone have the secret sauce. Actually, economics teaches us that no one can beat the market unless they have inside information. But economics also tells us how to keep the market from beating you -- by taking risk, but limiting your downside, diversifying, and following your brain, not your emotions in making investment decisions. Fred has decades of experience valuing roughly 10,000 companies. He also knows that markets can go nuts. Today, a third of the value of the S&P comprises 10 AI companies who have yet to make a profit. So, is an S&P index really diversified? Not so clear. It may simply be everyone’s green dream. Or not. Fred is back to help us better hedge our bets in a time of national, global, and technological upheaval the likes of which we didn’t see in 1929 when things went poof simply because everyone collectively decided they were going poof. In short, we don’t need crazy to go crazy. Fred is pure shelter from the storm - real and imagined. So watch/listen to Fred and pull up the song by you know who on YouTube! Fred has over 40 years of investment and corporate finance experience, as a portfolio manager, a private equity investor and an investment banker. Fred's clients have included Staples (where he was a founding investor); Advanced Micro Devices; Forest Laboratories; ULTA Beauty; Tractor Supply; Berlitz International; Rexnord; Fairchild Industries; Plantronics; and numerous others. Fred is also a highly experienced private equity investor, having invested in more than 80 private companies. Fred received his A.B, cum laude from Harvard College and his MBA with Distinction from Harvard Business School.Prior to founding Lane Generational in September 2020, Fred was Senior Vice President, Investments at Raymond James & Associates, Inc. from October 2014 to September 2020 and also served as Vice Chairman, Investment Banking from May 2009 to October 2014. Fred was Chairman, CEO and Founder of the investment banking firm Lane, Berry & Co. International, LLC (which was acquired by Raymond James in May 2009) from January 2002 through January 2013. Prior to that, Fred was a Managing Director and Principal of Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corporation (DLJ). Fred joined DLJ in 1976 and was instrumental in the growth of DLJ's investment banking business. He also served as Co-Head of the Mergers and Acquisitions Department at DLJ and as Managing Director – Senior Advisor of Credit Suisse First Boston upon CSFB's acquisition of DLJ in 2000.

Steve Laffey is a true American rages-to-riches success story. But Steve took the biblical saying, "to those who have much is owed," fully to heart. After a highly successful career in banking, Steve returned to run for mayor in his birthplace -- Cranston, Rhode Island, taking it from bankruptcy to solvency and growth. His remarkable story is conveyed in this Wikipedia entry. This is Steve's 4th appearance on Economics Matters -- the Podcast. Steve is an expert on America's problems. His film, Fixing America, which he made after serving two terms as mayor of Cranston, is a must see. And stevelaffey.com is a must visit. Steve tells it like it is and his survey of President Trump's first nine months -- its damage to our international standing, to our rule of law, to our civility, to our economy, and to our comity -- holds no bars. What we need is not to make America great again. What we need is to make America America again. Steve Laffey reminds us of just what that means and looks like. 

I've been a huge fan of Holman Jenkins for years. His columns are deeply insightful and fun -- skewering the left and the right in equal measure. I found our conversation remarkably calming. Holman is a true student of history, so when he says this too will pass, it's particularly reassuring. Many columnists come and go. But Holman has been writing for and guiding the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal for a third of a century. That tenure is a remarkable tribute to both Holman and the Journal. Please listen/watch this premier American journalist. He's truly one of a kind. Holman's Bio Holman W. Jenkins Jr. is a member of the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal. He writes the twice-weekly “Business World” column that appears on the paper's op-ed page on Wednesdays and Saturdays.Mr. Jenkins joined the Journal in May 1992 as a writer for the editorial page in New York. In February 1994, he moved to Hong Kong as editor of The Asian Wall Street Journal's editorial page. He returned to the domestic Journal in December 1995 as a member of the paper's editorial board and was based in San Francisco. Mr. Jenkins won a 1997 Gerald Loeb Award for distinguished business and financial coverage.Born in Philadelphia, Mr. Jenkins received a bachelor's degree from Hobart and William Smith Colleges and a master's degree in journalism from Northwestern University. He was a 1991 journalism fellow at the University of Michigan.

President Trump's on again, off again tariff mania is, well, choose your adjective. From one day to the next, imported products, be they pharmaceuticals, kitchen cabinets, lumber, or foreign movies, are being tariffed at massive rates. Brazilian products are facing 50 percent tariffs because Brazil isn't treating recently convicted former Brazilian President, Bolsonaro, to the President's liking, and other countries are now locked into a high tariff for the conceivable future. Cambodia, for example, is facing a permanent 19 percent tariff on selling products to the U.S. A good country-by-country list of tariffs now in place, scheduled, or threatened is available here. What impacts are the imposed tariffs, the announced tariffs, and the potential tariffs having on importers? What legal liabilities are importers facing thanks to tariff uncertainty. Will Trump's tariff policy, actual and potential, expand or undermine US manufacturing? To address these questions, I invited one of our top trade specialists, attorney Irene Chen, to join me on Economics Matters -- the Podcast. Irene represents and counsels foreign producers and U.S. importers in international trade matters through her law firm, VCL Law, LLP. As her bio bio details, Irene has had extensive experience working for the U.S. International Trade Commission and the U.S. Department of Commerce. Get ready to learn the not so good, the bad, and the ugly about current tariff policy and how it is impacting real companies in real time. 

Andrew Fesiak rejoins me on Economics Matters. He addresses these questions and more: Is Russia winning? Is Ukraine Short on Manpower? Is Trump selling out Ukraine and NATO by deed, if not word? Can Ukraine even up the sides with its new Flamingo cruise missile? What did the US refusal to join other NATO members in shooting down the Russian drone incursion in Poland tell us? Is Ukraine now exporting drones? Is Russia testing NATO's response to air incursions to demonstrate that the US is no longer a real part of NATO? Is Russia gearing up to attack the Baltics? How will the war end? Andrew is Senior Consultant at Black Trident Defense and Security Group. He's an expert on Ukrainian and Russian relations, politics, history, culture, and the ongoing war. Andrew has lived in Ukraine for decades, having emigrated from Canada. His grandparents and parents were Ukrainian. This is Andrew's 5th appearance on Economics Matters -- the Podcast. His analysis of the military and political situation have been dead on. If you want the facts on the ground, including Trump's mounting acts of betrayal, all packaged in mellifluous words of support, this podcast is for you.

Back in May, Moody's joined the other two major U.S. debt-rating companies, S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Group, in downgrading US government debt. No surprise. Federal debt was close to 30 percent of GDP a quarter Century back. Today it's close to 100 percent and projected to exceed 150 percent by mid Century. No one is better positioned to discuss our nation's fiscal condition than David Levey. David spent almost 19 years servicing as Managing Director and Co-Head of the Sovereign Ratings Unit of Moody's Investors Service. Indeed, David is arguably the father of sovereign risk rating having developed country-credit analysis at Moody's. When David retired, he was credited by Moody's as having rated the official obligations of over 100 countries across the world. In addition, David has been involved in rating a host of foreign and domestic industry- and company-specific securities. David holds a BA in Economics from the University of Chicago and a PhD in Economics from Harvard University. Before joining Moody's, he taught at Yale, the New School for Social Research, and Wayne State University. He also served as Senior Economics Writer for BusinessWeek, Country Risk Manager for Wells Fargo, and President of his own risk-evaluation consulting company. David's had a long career sizing up failing states. The US is not a failing state, but is, it seems, working overtime to join that club. Please listen as one of our few remaining grownups in the room explains what our politicians know, but won't say -- our country is going broke hand over fist, with serious implications for how we all should you invest your money.  

Peter Coy, a veteran economics journalist with a rich background in major publications, interviews a leading economist on pressing financial issues. They delve into common retirement planning mistakes and critique Wall Street's misleading practices. The discussion also highlights the impending crisis of Social Security, proposing reforms like individual contribution accounts. They explore the long-term challenges of fiscal policies, warning against unsustainable borrowing and the need for accountability in securing futures for upcoming generations.

Ignazio Visco is a superb economist and central banker. He should be everyone's choice for the next President of the European Central Bank. Italy has a bad economic rap among those with a cursory knowledge of its fiscal condition and financial system. In fact, it's ranked as the most fiscally sustainable of all major EU countries and has one of the world's safest banking systems. The former is thanks to relatively small off-the-books pension, healthcare, and other off-the-books liabilities. The latter is largely due to Ignazio's 12-year leadership of the Italian Central Bank. Ignazio has had an amazing career. He received his PhD in economics from the University of Pennsylvania, joined the Bank of Italy as a junior economist, quickly became Head of the Bank's Research Department, was named Chief Economist of the OECD, and then appointed Governor of the Bank of Italy. He has served on the boards of the ECB, the ESRB, the BIS, the FSB, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the InterAmerican Development Bank. There are few people on the planet with Ignazio wealth of international economic exposure, expertise, and knowledge. Please do listen/watch this episode of Economics Matters -- the Podcast. It's terrific. 

Gregory Clark, a British economic historian and professor, delves into the intriguing link between genetics and economic evolution. He discusses how the reproductive patterns of the elite during the Industrial Revolution shaped social mobility and status across generations. The conversation highlights the influence of wealth on fertility, explores education's role in social hierarchies, and touches on modern challenges in retirement planning. Clark raises provocative questions about genetic determinism and its effects on today's socio-economic landscape.

I met Bill Raduchel as a grad student at Harvard. He was then and remains today a rare combination of pure genius and utter humility. My interactions with Bill were limited. But I instinctively realized he was some form of economics, software, and computer god rolled into a lovely person who could teach you about those subjects or anything  else of interest. I met up again with Bill two years back and, gee, nothing had changed. I was awestruck then. I'm awestruck now. When I heard he'd written an autobiography of his amazing career, I lept at the chance to share Bill with followers of Economics Matters -- the Podcast.  Bill's book, which you can purchase here, is entitled: The Bleeding Edge -- My Six Decades at the Forefront of the Tech Revolution (from Scott McNealy to Steve Jobs to Steve Case to Steve Ballmer and Other Titans of Technology) Here's the Wiki description of Bill. Dr. William J. Raduchel is an independent director, angel investor and strategic advisor. He was a professor of economics at Harvard for ten years, and an assistant dean at Harvard and Radcliffe. He has been an executive at Ruckus Network, Sun Microsystems, AOL Time Warner, Xerox Corporation, and McGraw-Hill. He also serves on boards for the Salvation Army and STEP (National Academy of Sciences).“Bill Raduchel is a pioneer of the digital revolution. The deeply instructive stories in this book are much more than a compulsively readable personal history. They’re a master class in how to succeed in the business of technology.”—Eric Schmidt, former CEO, Google, and co-author of The New Digital Age“For more than half a century, Bill Raduchel has been the Zelig of the tech world—somehow involved in nearly everything and knowing everyone. This book should be required reading for anyone thinking about a career in tech.”—Steve Case, cofounder and former CEO, AOL, and author of the New York Times bestseller The Third Wave“Bill has been my thesis advisor, dorm advisor, economics professor, mentor, CXO, friend, and co-worker since 1973. At Sun for over a decade, he helped us take revenue from $1 billion to $14 billion. He steered us through a financial crisis in 1989 and was in the middle of every major deal and innovation. The Bleeding Edge gives a perspective on management and change that is unique. He was there. He lived and helped formulate it.”—Scott McNealy,co-founder and former CEO, Sun Microsystems“I hired Bill to advise the Daily Mail and General Trust because of his long experience in technology and media. As this book shows, he’s also a shrewd judge of people and the systems that make companies successful.”—Jonathan Harmsworth,4th Viscount Rothermere and chairman of Daily Mail and General Trust“Few in the tech world are as accomplished and as deeply embedded in its firmament as Bill Raduchel. The Bleeding Edge is more than just a memoir—it’s a mini-MBA, a computer science degree, and a front-row-seat history of the digital revolution all rolled into one must-read book.” —Christopher A. Smith,author of Privacy Pandemic and digital security expertBut the real story of Bill Raduchel is summarized by these blurbs of his book and their authors.