On The Ledge

By all accounts, the final results of the federal election will be a muddled minority at best. There are no shortage of scenarios being floated as to who can, should or will be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. No matter the outcome, it means Canadians are likely to head back to the polls withing the next 24 or 30 months - at best. Whoever forms government will parade their platform priorities in the first throne speech. But how will that affect the biggest issue facing this country. Support grows for separatism in Alberta. The Bloc Quebecois has been revived. Will the new parliament be prepared or equipped to deal with an agenda that will be dominated by national unity and sovereignty?

Justin Trudeau barely gets through a stump speech or a Q&A with media without mentioning Doug Ford's name multiple times. He accuses the Ontario premier of taking care of his rich pals and cutting essential services intended to support the most vulnerable. Trudeau says a Scheer government in Ottawa would do the same or worse. The strategy is fairly transparent. The Liberals are not only linking Andrew Scheer to an unpopular premier, they're baiting Ford to engage in the federal campaign. But try as they may, the Trudeau Liberals have not been able to draw Ontario Premier Doug Ford into the fight. Ford has been highly disciplined through the writ period, sitting quietly on the sidelines since the Governor General dissolved parliament on September 11th. And, it would appear, the federal Conservatives are fine with that strategy. And it became all the more pronounced when Scheer made several stops in Ontario in the past week, glad-handing and door knocking with Jason Kenney at his side. Yes, Scheer was stumping with Alberta's premier in Ontario while Doug Ford remained out of sight. Our panelists, John Wright, Partner at Dart, Keith Leslie, CH Television commentator, Dave Trafford, Executive Producer iContact Productions, and special guest Melissa Lantsman, VP Hill and Knowlton ask the question: Was it good strategy or an explicit political admission that Ford is toxic?

Well that escalated in a hurry. CUPE represents some 55 thousand education workers across the province and has been in contract negotiations with the province over the past few weeks. It appeared they were close to a deal on Sunday, September 29th, but the union walked away from the negotiations saying they would commence a work to rule on September 30. Two days later, union leadership announced plans for a full scale strike unless there is a deal by 12:01 AM on Monday, October 6th. That sent heads spinning at Queen's Park and parent's scrambling because a number of local school boards have decided to close their schools in the name of student safety. It's the first salvo in the public service labour negotiations for the Ford government and it happens while the legislature is in recess. And all of this happens against the back drop of a federal election campaign where team Scheer is trying to keep Premier Ford out of the view and ear shot of the media. Strike or not, this showdown will set the tone for other contract talks including the teachers' unions.

Climate change was the front and centre subject of discussion this week. It was punctuated by the Climate Strike marches in cities around the world - a movement led by Greta Thunberg. In the throes of a federal election campaign, the climate agenda was commandeered by citizens who don't have a vote. Education is also the focus of attention On The Ledge with news that CUPE representing some 55,000 educational workers in the province are preparing a work to rule campaign.

The federal election campaign has consumed all of the political oxygen since the Governor General officially dissolved parliament on September 11. The Liberal strategy out of the gate was to equate Conservative Leader to Doug Ford - characterized as the service-slashing Premier of Ontario who cares little about the little guy. A vote for Scheer is a vote that threatens everything from healthcare to affordable housing. How has that strategy played out? How could it be related to the midweek bombshell from Time Magazine - publishing photos of Justin Trudeau in blackface? Meanwhile, life goes on for parents and kids across the province. Education workers represented by CUPE have given the union a strong strike mandate and we're getting a better sense of the class sizes.

If the medium is the message, then Premier Doug Ford's anti-carbon tax message isn't sticking. The government mandated anti-federal carbon tax labels that adorn gas pumps across the province are peeling off; reporting in the Toronto Star suggests they've got the wrong adhesive. First problem is, the glue is intended for indoor use; the second issue is the glue was meant to adhere to metal (the gas pump coverings are vinyl). The labels may not stick but the irony is sticking to the premier, whose family fortune comes from a very successful decal and labelling company. But in the grand scheme of things, that was something of a media invented issue for the Ford Folks at Queen's Park this week. For the most part, the provincial Tories are keeping their heads low, tending to constituency work, while ministers pop up from time to time to offer some good news announcement (like the deficit isn't nearly as bad as we thought!!)

Students got back to class this week in Ontario with little or no drama on the labour front. But it was clear, before the week was over, that the Doug Ford Tories will be facing push back from unions representing workers in the education sector. CUPE is the first to light a slow burn fuse, putting the province on notice. The union represents some 55 thousand education workers across the province and has requested a "no board notice" which starts the clock ticking down to job action that could begin September 23, 2019. So far, the teachers unions are keeping their powder dry but are already making it clear they're not satisfied with the progress, or lack thereof, at the bargaining table. John Wright, from DART C-Suite Communicators, says this may be a sign that the various public sector unions, (not just the education unions) are prepping a coordinated effort to take on the province. But is it possible for the unions to overplay their hand, creating chaos in the classroom? How patient will the Ford government be? It's shaping up to be a slow burn autumn in Ontario that could end with a bang in the new year.

Here we are making the turn into the autumn. The kids are heading back to class this week without much of the drama that had been anticipated. There have been dire prognostications of an all out war between the teachers' unions and the Doug Ford government. Any hints of labour unrest remain in the background - for now. So, it's business as usual, extra-curriculars and athletics move forward as planned. We're joined this week by Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner. Mike outlines his plans for vetting non-political appointments at Queen's Park.

Dean French left the Premier's Office at Queen's Park about two months ago and, by accident or design, the tone and approach of the Doug Ford government has shifted significantly. That tone was front and centre this past week at the annual AMO (Association of Municipalities of Ontario) meeting in Ottawa. It wasn't a love-in by any stretch of the imagination. Local governments are still struggling with Queen's Park's decision to cut funding for municipal services including public health and child care. But, there was dialogue. The premier and his cabinet entertained some 600 meetings with municipal mayors, councillors and adminstrators during the AMO conference.  While the reception for Premier Ford may be described as cool, Municipal Affairs Minister Steve Clark got a rock star welcome. The local governments feel he's listening. And listening hasn't been a strong suit for this government so far. It's also worth noting that this is the final week of the summer vacation for school kids and for all the predictions of an all out war with the teachers' unions, it would appear that Ontario students are going to head back to class without a lot of drama. It doesn't mean it won't be an issue as we move into the fall term, but for now, all's relatively quiet on the labour front. None of that would have been even considered two months ago when Dean French ruled the roost as the premier's chief of staff. It not only signals a change in tone, it signals a government that may have finally moved from campaign mode (a year after winning office) to governing mode.

This week ON THE LEDGE welcomes Melissa Lantsman as a guest contributor. Melissa’s a VP at Hill and Knowlton and was also a war room strategist for the Ontario PC party during the 2018 provincial campaign. All the talk in Toronto was about the spike in gun violence this week. The region averaged more than 2 shootings a day in a 7 day stretch. That has prompted Ontario Premier Doug Ford to reiterate his law and order commitment to the Toronto Police Service in the form of $25 million. Ford and Toronto Mayor John Tory are expected to make a joint announcement in the coming week on their plans to curb the rash of shootings.  That is likely to score the premier some positive marks in the 416 but Doug Ford caught a good deal of criticism after he unleashed on the Not Criminally Responsible patients - calling them “animals” who need to be jailed rather than treated at CAMH. His willingness to be baited by the media and his political opponents suggest it’s going to be hard for Doug Ford to sit quietly on his hands AND on the sidelines during the pending federal election campaign.