On The Ledge

The sleepiest of campaigns turned out to be one for the history books on a number of counts.  First Doug Ford won a second majority in Ontario. Second, he won more seats in this election than he did in 2018. Third, he won more of the popular vote this time around than he did in 2018. Fourth, both main Opposition leaders called it quits after the results were obvious. Fifth, the Liberals failed, for the second time in a row, to gain official party status.

Bob Reid at Broadway Strategy and Communications spent time advising Mike Harris when he sat in the Premier's chair in Ontario. What's it like for the leaders and the staffers on Election Day. The campaign is over. It's up to us to mark our ballots.

The Toronto Star says Doug Ford broke their Fact Checker because, for the most part the far and few between statements he made between May 25 and May 29 stated uncheckable facts. To me, that means he's spent the bulk of what little time he's spent speaking publicly uttering meaningless slogans. On average, he's spending 5 minutes a day speaking publicly in the final stretch of the campaign.  On the other hand, a guy like Mark Towhey hosts Ontario VOTES and talks campaign stuff for four hours a night! And even he makes it lively and interesting!

Sabrina Nanji just gets on a roll over Steven Del Duca's prospects of winning his seat in Vaughan-Woodbridge when she falls off the internet! No injuries reported. But it speaks to the shift in media coverage at Queen's Park and on the campaign away from in-person scrums in favour of remote video links and a one-question-one-followup format.

Before we get to the poll, we begin this edition of the Writ Race with a Friday FART JOKE! That's what the Ontario election campaign has come to with less than a week to go before Election Day on June 2.  The Toronto Star's got its hands on ANOTHER set of leaked polling numbers - this time from the NDP. Surprise, surprise! The NDP's confidential, internal memo says they've got the "wind at their back"! More likely that leader Horwath has figurative knives at her back. And the latest from Angus Reid shows "NOT SURE" is running second to Doug Ford and the PCs on some key issues. Yes, NOT SURE polls ahead of Horwath, Del Duca and Schreiner when those surveyed are asked which party is best suited to create new jobs!

We are a week away from counting the final ballot tally that will determine who will sit in the Premier's Office in Ontario.  And here's where we stand. Andrea Horwath is running to keep her job. Steven Del Duca is running to win his seat. And Doug Ford is sleep walking his way towards another majority. Will the final week make any difference in the campaign? Probably not. All but one number has stayed steady in most of the polling since the Leaders' Debate. The one that's shifted smartly is the number of voters who think Andrea Horwath would be the best choice as Premier of Ontario. According to the latest Nanos' numbers, the NDP leader has faded to 17.5%. Her numbers continue to dip as Del Duca and Ford make gains.

All agree Doug Ford's below-the-radar approach to this election campaign is working for him. All indications are, he'd have to stumble hard to be reduced to a minority government. But does the peek-a-boo strategy hurt when several communities were hit by a deadly and devastating spring storm? Meanwhile, have the Liberals admitted they can't win? Internal party polling was leaked to Rob Benzie at the Toronto Star, suggesting the Liberals believe they can hold the PCs to a minority if they can win tight fights against the NDP.

Polling and seat projection numbers seem to be fluid, with less than 2 weeks to go before Election Day in Ontario. In three separate stories over the Victoria Day weekend, the Toronto Star says the Liberals could hold Ford Nation to a minority, the NDP is gaining at the expense of the Liberals, and the Liberals out poll the NDP but would finish third. So, we turn to John Wright, SVP at Maru Public Opinion to get some clarity on what's going on. He expects voting intentions firmed up while friends and families gather over the long holiday weekend.

It seems the United Conservative Party of Alberta's not all that united. Jason Kenney's spectacular fall from grace suggests the "big tent" approach is an unmitigated failure for conservatives in Alberta. And this is in Canada's conservative heartland! You've got to think Kenney's meagre 51.4% support in this week's leadership review reflects a similar schism in the federal ranks. Today on the WRIT RACE, we're joined by Bob Reid, Principal at Broadway Strategy and Communications and Bob Richardson, Senior Counsel at National Public Relations to read the entrails and give us a sense of what this means for the conservative movement across Canada.