Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, and Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director at Employ America, share their expert insights on the current economic landscape. They discuss the implications of surprising 3% GDP growth, potential slowdowns in consumer spending, and challenges in the housing market. The duo also examines inflation trends influenced by wage growth and energy prices while diving into the role of upcoming elections on economic forecasts. Their perspectives offer investors useful strategies for navigating uncertainty.

As election season heats up, how can investors keep their portfolios steady amid political swings?This week on Facts vs. Feelings, Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy, PIMCO, joins hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, to unpack the 2024 election's potential market impact. From rising deficits and tax reform to tariffs and a divided Congress, they explore why reacting emotionally to political shifts could undermine investment decisions.They also examine how new media like podcasts is reshaping voter engagement—and share strategies for staying calm and focused in high-stakes times.Key Highlights:Election Impact on Markets: Why sticking to portfolio fundamentals is critical amid election uncertaintyKey Election Themes: Likely shifts in deficits, tax reform, and tariffs, regardless of who winsPolling and Predictions: A look at tight races and the caution needed with prediction marketsMedia Shift: How new media is reshaping how voters engage in electionsCongressional Balance: Market risks and opportunities if Congress remains dividedPersonal Reflections: Libby’s insights on stress management during an election yearAnd much more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseConnect with Libby Cantrill: LinkedIn: Libby Cantrill, CFAPIMCO

Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, shares his journey from retail stockbroker to a leading RIA founder, emphasizing networking and risk-taking. He discusses the importance of authenticity in both work-life balance and content creation, revealing his shift from social media to newsletters and YouTube. Brown offers behind-the-scenes insights from his time on CNBC and as an advisor for 'Billions.' He also reflects on the pandemic's impact on the financial system, touching on inflation and labor shortages, all while celebrating personal and professional connections.

As the election approaches, investors are bracing for potential surprises—will history repeat itself, or are we in for something new?This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into key forces at play—rising inflation, surging small- and mid-cap stocks, and why investors are staying calm despite higher CPI and PPI numbers. As Q4 unfolds, they consider whether seasonal trends might cool inflation and how hurricanes could influence the Fed's next steps.They also discuss how the election could sway the markets, why a split Congress might benefit investors, and which trends like defense spending and a strong dollar are likely to stick. Plus, they unpack the spike in the volatility index (VIX) and what it could mean for a post-election market shift.Join us to gain insights and prepare for the market's next moves!Key Highlights:Inflation Trends: Insights into the recent CPI and PPI data, including signs of easing in shelter costs and projections for Q4Market Dynamics: How small- and mid-cap stock strength contributes to broader market gains, supported by strong earnings from major banksElection Impact: Tight polling and the prospects of a split Congress could create a favorable market environment, with defense spending and dollar strength likely to continueVolatility and VIX: What the elevated volatility index suggests about investor sentiment ahead of the electionLabor Market Considerations: Potential impacts of hurricanes on employment data and what this could mean for the Fed's policy directionQ4 Market Outlook: Expectations for strong equity performance, driven by seasonal trends and market momentumAnd much more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

The discussion dives into the two-year bull market, analyzing whether it's a sign of lasting stability or the prelude to instability. Recent job growth and profit gains highlight economic strength, while the impacts of hurricanes in Florida underscore community resilience. Inflation and CPI data could reshape Federal Reserve actions, influencing market strategies. The hosts also reflect on historical market behaviors and tease the potential effects of upcoming elections on investor sentiment.

Join Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research, and Brian Portnoy, finance founder and behavioral expert, as they delve into the emotional currents influencing financial decisions. They discuss how market sentiment shapes investor behavior and the necessity of emotional intelligence in financial advising. Learn about the power of storytelling in engaging clients and the importance of financial literacy for younger generations. Plus, gain insights into current economic trends and the vital role of data in navigating complex financial landscapes.

Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and its implications for investors. They analyze whether this strategic move indicates a positive economic shift or hidden risks ahead. The duo also highlights resilient economic data, including strength in consumer spending and industrial production, amidst concerns about rising consumer debt, providing practical insights for navigating today's financial landscape.

This week’s guest is Frank Cappelleri, a finance professional known for his technical analysis expertise. He shares crucial insights on navigating market volatility with precision. Frank presents a bullish target of 6,100 for the S&P 500, emphasizing inflation's role in investor sentiment. He breaks down seasonal trends, especially the September volatility, and reveals why utilities are currently outperforming. The conversation dives deep into contrasting performances of gold and oil, offering traders a comprehensive view of the market landscape.

In a special celebration, Tom Lee, Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, joins the hosts for a lively discussion. He shares his bold prediction for the S&P 500 reaching 15,000 by 2030 and dives into the importance of demographic trends in the market. The conversation also explores the impact of potential Fed rate cuts, navigating September market volatility, and Bitcoin’s evolving role in investment portfolios. Lee emphasizes opportunities in small-cap stocks amidst economic shifts and much more!

Understanding today’s economy requires a keen eye on labor markets, Federal Reserve policies, and fiscal strategies.How do these factors interplay to shape the financial landscape? What practical advice can help investors stay grounded amid market noise?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Together they discuss the dynamic nature of the global economy. You'll learn about the practical applications of charts and data in economic analysis, the impact of monetary policy on recession fears, and the relationship between inflation and unemployment. Dr. Kelly also offers invaluable insights into the recent upward trends in productivity and the critical outlook for fiscal policy as we approach 2025.They discuss: The role of charts and data in economic storytellingThe evolving state of the labor market and productivityImplications of Jay Powell's Jackson Hole commentsKey fiscal policy changes and their potential impactsAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Dr. David Kelly: LinkedIn: David KellyJ.P Morgan Asset ManagementInterested in hearing more from Dr. David Kelly? Subscribe to his shows wherever you listen to podcasts. Notes on the Week Ahead - Published every Monday  Insights Now and Alternative Realities - Episodes available every Thursday  Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseAbout Our Guest:Dr. David Kelly is the Chief Global Strategist and Head of the Global Market Insights Strategy Team for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. With over 20 years of experience, David provides valuable insight and perspective on the economy and markets to the institutional investor and financial advisor global communities.David’s research focuses on investment implications of an evolving economic environment. He has written extensively on all aspects of the U.S. economy and his proprietary U.S. economic forecasting model helps shape his views on both the economic landscape and prospective asset class returns. He currently sits on JP Morgan Fund’s operating committee.Throughout his career, David has developed a unique ability to explain complex economic and market issues in a language that financial professionals can use to communicate to their clients. He is a keynote speaker at many national investment conferences and a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and other financial media outlets.Prior to joining J.P. Morgan Asset Management, David served as Economic Advisor to Putnam Investments. He has also served as a senior strategist/economist at SPP Investment Management, Primark Decision Economics, Lehman Brothers and DRI/McGraw-Hill.David is a CFA® charterholder. He also has a Ph.D and M.A. in Economics from Michigan State University and a B.A. in Economics from University College Dublin in the Republic of Ireland.