What's That Rash?

Australian adults will be able to get a fifth dose of the COVID-19 vaccine within a fortnight.People aged 18 and over who've not had a COVID vaccine or a positive case in the last six months will also be eligible for another shot.

The majority of Australians have received at least two doses of a COVID vaccine — and they've most likely caught the virus as well. New research suggests this hybrid immunity offers good protection against severe disease, although the risk of long COVID persists with even mild bouts of infection. There could soon be a simple model to predict how likely you are to recover well from COVID, or whether you'll go on to develop post-viral symptoms. Guest: Professor Jeremy NicholsonDirector, Australian National Phenome Centre, Health Futures InstituteReferences:Protective effectiveness of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against the omicron variant and severe disease: a systematic review and meta-regressionA patient-centric modeling framework captures recovery from SARS-CoV-2 infection

It has been three years since the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global health emergency. The WHO isn't ready to downgrade the status of the pandemic, but the committee has agreed we're at a 'transition' point. Meanwhile an outbreak of influenza in mink has highlighted the need for greater animal-human disease surveillance.   

Although we didn't begin this year with any lockdowns or border closures, the pandemic hasn't abated.In fact we're off to a worse start than we had in 2022. Australia surpassed 1,000 deaths a whole week earlier than it did last year. New subvariants are circulating fast. So what's changed? What's the best protection? And could sluggish surveillance be leaving us vulnerable?

What a year 2022 has been for COVID. We started with a new variant sweeping the world, heavy restrictions and border closures and we end with very few restrictions remaining.We also sadly end with millions not fully vaccinated, and an aged care system that is still battling the virus.So on the last Coronacast of the year, we go down the 2022 rabbit hole and try to make some predictions for 2023.

The number of new weekly COVID cases seems to be slowing, but sadly doesn't seem to be slowing fast enough to be free of the current wave by Christmas.Last year was a strong COVID Christmas, as the Omicron variant took over from Delta bringing thousands and thousands of new cases.This time, the wave will be smaller - but still noticeable.And we break down the big announcements from National Cabinet: PCR testing and the country's COVID strategy in 2023.

There's been a lot of discussion about the origins of COVID, especially on the question of did it come from a lab, did it form naturally - or maybe a mix of both.Well a new book called Dark Winter has tackled this question and has come to the conclusion that we better get better at identifying outbreaks - because sometimes they're intentional.While there's no direct evidence that COVID came from a lab leak, author and Professor Raina MacIntyre argues it is possible and some have been too quick to wave away the possibility.

Protests are breaking out across parts of China in response to the Chinese government zero COVID restrictions.The number of COVID cases has soared in China in recent weeks, rising at a similar rate to what happened in March this year.The outbreak was quickly brought under control, by the use of the Government's severe measures such as forced external quarantine and city wide lockdowns.But with widespread discontent and protests, it may prove harder to keep this outbreak under control. So is this the end of China's COVID zero?References:China Covid: Shocking protests are huge challenge for China's leaders - Stephen McDonellAssociations between COVID‐19 and hospitalisation with respiratory and non‐respiratory conditions: a record linkage study

There's hope that the current Omicron sub variant wave will be in decline again just in time for Christmas - but like everything COVID, it's hard to know for sure.Both case loads and hospitalisations due to COVID have continued to increase in the last week.The latest advice from state health authorities say that overseas experience suggests the current wave might pass relatively quickly, though they warn local conditions may mean it's different here.So what do we know about the latest wave? And is it better to have a quick one, or one that lasts for a longer time?

Another week, another big jump in COVID case numbers and rising admissions to hospitals.The next wave is well and truly underway, with the BA4 and BA5 sub variants rapidly being replaced by versions that are even more immune evasive.However, when Omicron turned up last year there were a variety of public health measures in place to try and slow infection rates. This time though, we've only got vaccination and an optional sense of public duty.So can we slow down the next wave, or is it coming in hard and fast?