On this episode of the China Global podcast, the relationship between the Philippines and China, and some of the flashpoints therein (especially in the maritime realm), will be discussed. Since taking office in June 2022, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. has pursued a strategy of “being a friend to all and an enemy to none.” He has tried to maintain close economic ties with China, signing 14 cooperation agreements when he visited Beijing last January, including an updated Belt and Road Initiative memorandum. He secured over $22 billion in investment and trade deals. But the maritime disputes between the Philippines and China are becoming more contentious, and Manila is pushing back against Chinese pressure in new ways.  Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Richard Heydarian to analyze the bilateral relationship and especially the maritime flashpoints. Heydarian is a columnist at the Philippine Daily Inquirer, a Senior Lecturer at the University of the Philippines, and a policy adviser. His most recent book is The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China, and the New Global Struggle for Mastery. Timestamps[01:36] Changes in Sino-Phillipine Relations[09:05] Tensions Between the Chinese Coast Guard and Philippine Ships[14:23] Pushing Back Against China[20:55] China, the Philippines, and the Warship[25:05] Future Relations with China[29:30] The Philippines and a Taiwan Strait Conflict  

In late August, China’s Ministry of Natural Resources released its new “standard map,” which includes not only Taiwan, but also parts of the maritime zones of the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Indonesia, and Malaysia. It also includes land that China disputes with India—and even some Russian territory. To publicize the map and China’s claims, Beijing launched a “national map awareness publicity week,” as it has for map releases in recent years. China’s map release is an annual event, which can happen at any time. So why now? And what does the map tell us about Chinese foreign policy under Xi Jinping? To discuss this topic, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Collin Koh who is Senior Fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, based in Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He has research interests on naval affairs in the Indo-Pacific, focusing on Southeast Asia.  Timestamps[01:29] How does this map differ from previous ones?[04:44] Interagency Coordination on Release[05:51] Reaction of the Chinese Foreign Ministry [08:12] Significance of the Timing of the Release[11:32] Protests Against the Map’s Release[15:09] Portrayal of the South China Sea[19:35] Ambiguity of Beijing’s Claims [23:44] Territorial Claims Along the Sino-Russian Border[26:58] Lasting Impact of the Map 

In 2001, Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill coined the term “BRIC” to describe the fast-growing economies that he predicted would collectively dominate the global economy by 2050. The BRIC countries he was referring to were Brazil, Russia, India, and China. After a series of high-level meetings that included officials from the four countries, the BRIC grouping was founded in 2009. The following year, South Africa joined, and the name became “BRICS”. Last month, the fifteenth BRICS summit was held in Johannesburg. In addition to the leaders of the five core countries, representatives from more than 60 countries attended, and six were officially invited to join the club: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.How does the BRICS serve China’s foreign policy objectives? And is this expansion a major win for Xi Jinping? Is BRICS likely to become a global grouping of authoritarian countries that poses a challenge to the G-7 group of democracies – and is that what Beijing wants? To discuss these topics and more, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Colleen Cottle, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. Prior to joining the Atlantic Council, she spent over a dozen years at the Central Intelligence Agency where she worked on East and South Asia.  Timestamps[01:45] What has BRICS achieved? [05:33] China Driving the BRICS Agenda[08:35] Where does BRICS fit into China’s foreign policy agenda? [10:53] Why has BRICS refrained from endorsing BRI?[12:53] Outcomes of Johannesburg Summit[15:18] Criteria for Expanding BRICS Membership[18:19] Potential for BRICS Disrupting the International Order[23:52] China as a Developing Country[26:56] Will we see any breakthroughs with BRICS?  

The podcast discusses the recent shakeup in the PLA Rocket Force and the removal and investigation of top commanders. It explores the implications of appointing new commanders from other military branches. The episode also delves into concerns about loyalty in the PLA and the need for a modern system of military governance. Additionally, it examines the drivers behind China's nuclear force development and their implications for US interests.

The podcast explores the centrality of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the US-China competition, discussing China's national AI strategy, military implications, and surveillance capabilities. It also delves into the Biden administration's restrictions on semiconductors and AI technologies and potential collaborations and regulations in the field of AI. The guest analyzes the likelihood of the United States or China leading the next technological revolution.

Critical minerals are non-fuel minerals or mineral materials essential to the economic or national security of the U.S. They have no viable substitutes yet face a high risk of supply chain disruption. Critical minerals are used for many different purposes, including the production of advanced electronics, weapons systems, manufacturing equipment, and cutting-edge medical devices. They are indispensable for the transition to low-carbon energy sources. Last year, the U.S. Secretary of the Interior, with the aid of the U.S. Geological Survey, published a list of 50 critical minerals. China dominates global critical mineral supply chains, accounting for approximately 60% of world-wide production and 85% of processing capacity. However, the U.S. and several European countries are taking steps to build out their own ability to mine, process, and manufacture critical minerals. To discuss the implications of China’s role in critical mineral supply chains and the responses of the U.S. and its partners, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Abigail Wulf, vice president and director of the Ambassador Alfred Hoffman Jr. Center for Critical Minerals Strategy at Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE), a non-profit advancing transformative transportation technology to enhance energy security. Time Stamps[01:51] Vulnerabilities and Risks of Overdependence [07:07] Development of a Domestic Mining Industry [12:42] Environmental Hazards of Processing Raw Minerals [18:30] Impact of Export Controls on Gallium and Germanium[22:53] Diversifying Sources of Rare Earth Imports[26:38] The Critical Raw Materials Act[29:58] The Mineral Security Partnership

SummaryA new Foreign Relations Law took effect in China on July 1, 2023 that formalizes Chinese Communist Party leadership in all foreign policy matters. It puts China’s security and development interests and global rise at the center of its engagement with the world. The new law has been widely interpreted as providing a legal basis for Beijing’s struggle against what it says is a strategy of containment by the United States and its allies, and against foreign interference and sanctions, as well as what is calls America’s “long-arm jurisdiction.” To discuss the Foreign Relations Law, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Moritz Rudolf, a Research Scholar in Law and Fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, where he focuses on the implications of China’s rise for the international legal order. Timestamps[01:15] Impetus for the Foreign Relations Law[02:47] Centralized and Unified Leadership of Foreign Relations[04:27] China and Reforming the International Order[09:20] How might China use the foreign relations law?[11:03] Insurance Against International Courts[12:31] Targeting a Domestic Audience[15:10] Expected Policy Changes in China[17:30] Applicability of the Law in Cross-Strait Relations[21:57] Forecasting Chinese Use of Lawfare

This podcast discusses the current state of US-China relations, including Secretary of State Blinken's postponed visit to China and his recent meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping. It delves into the fragile nature of the relationship, the importance of Blinken's visit in stabilizing ties, and explores the potential for building a floor to stabilize the relationship. It also examines the evolving China-Russia relationship and its impact on US-China relations.

On June 3, 2023, there was a near-collision between a US and a PRC destroyer in the Taiwan Strait. According to a statement issued by US Indo-Pacific Command, a US Navy destroyer, the USS Chung-Hoon, and a Canadian warship were conducting a routine south to north Taiwan Strait transit through waters where high seas freedoms of navigation and overflight apply. The Luyang III, a People’s Liberation Army destroyer, overtook the Chung-Hoon on her port side and crossed her bow at 150 yards. The US warship maintained course and slowed to 10 knots to avoid a collision. US Indo-Pacific Command stated that the actions of the Chinese destroyer violated the maritime Rules of the Road of safe passage in international waters.How dangerous was this incident? Why do US warships sail in these waters, and do they do so in accordance with international law? And what steps should be taken to ensure that accidents do not take place between US and Chinese naval vessels?To discuss these questions, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Peter Dutton, professor of international law in the Stockton Center for International Law at the US Naval War College and an Adjunct Professor of Law at New York University School of Law. His research focuses on international law of the sea, Chinese views of sovereignty and international law, and China’s maritime expansion.  Timestamps[01:50] Freedom of the High Seas [03:21] Joint Freedom of Navigation Operations[03:52] Statement by the US Indo-Pacific Command[04:46] Statement by Defense Minister Li Shangfu[06:49] History of Dangerous Maneuvering by the Chinese[07:41] Trigger for the Recent Dangerous Maneuver[09:13] Chinese Adherence to International Law[10:19] Signaling Intentions in a Safe and Legal Manner[12:03] Aftermath of a Hypothetical Collision at Sea[14:44] Is the US Goading China into Conflict?[17:38] Rules of Behavior for Safety of Air and Maritime Encounters[19:24] Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea[20:27] The US and the Convention on the Law of the Sea[21:51] Interactions with Chinese Experts and Professionals

[01:50] Switzerland’s Policy toward China Today[03:48] Changes in Swiss-Chinese Relations[06:03] Switzerland’s 2021 China Strategy[08:17] Areas of Economic Cooperation[11:05] Switzerland’s Relationship with Taiwan[14:45] Switzerland’s One China Policy[17:32] Contending with Human Rights Issues[18:55] Huawei’s Presence in Switzerland[20:56] China’s Influence in Switzerland[23:42] Forecast of Swiss-Chinese Relations