The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

“Do I have enough to fund my retirement?” “What’s the optimal lifetime asset allocation?” Those two questions, stemming from a recent academic paper written by Pete, help launch Episode 9. The answers point toward Pete’s solution for retirement challenges, something called “goals-based” asset allocations (as opposed a singular, static “all-in,” asset allocation applied to your entire capital base). In other words, your specific goal – say, college tuition, a second home, maybe a trust – dictates the asset allocation of the associated, earmarked funds. From there, Meb and Pete transition to a discussion on factor-based investing, starting with “term” and “market” factors. According to Pete, “Ninety-five, ninety-six percent of the return variation of all managers and funds in the Morningstar database are explained by…basic factors.” Meb then asks, “What are the best diversifiers to a traditional portfolio?” Hint: Pete’s response includes Meb’s “desert island” strategy. They then discuss whether individual smart beta factors such as “value” should be evaluated relative to their own historical valuation. Your own answer will likely reflect whether or not you believe markets are mean-reverting, a topic often debated. They then touch upon risk factors as applied to REITs before diving into a discussion of the Yale Endowment allocation. Pete tells us that Yale’s outperformance over the decades really boils down to just one thing: exposure to venture capital. The rest could be replicated in a factor-tilted portfolio. They wrap up with a reader question: “How do you know when your strategy no longer works?” Find out Meb’s and Pete’s answers in Episode #9. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Episode #8 marks Meb’s first “listener feedback” episode. We’ve received numerous bond-related questions from listeners, but they all tend to reduce to something along the lines of: “Bonds are hovering around historically low yields. Where do they fit in a diversified portfolio today?” Meb tackles the question, discussing Treasuries first, then expanding to global sovereign bonds – which, by the way, is the largest asset class in the world. In fact, a market cap weighting would suggest you have about one-third of your portfolio in global bonds. Instead, the average U.S. investor has around 0%. This leads to a discussion about using a value screen to help identify attractive global sovereign debt opportunities. Turns out you could be invested in a basket generating about 7% right now. Of course, you’d be investing in countries like Brazil, Russia, India, Turkey, Mexico... Could you do that? If you’re a yield-starved investor, it might be time to consider the question more seriously as U.S. bond yields may not climb to meaningful levels for quite a while. So as to U.S. bonds, will yields keep dropping? Or is it time to get out? Find out Meb’s thoughts in Episode #8. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Exploring black swans in investing, protecting against market outliers, and tactics to avoid drawdowns. Insights on identifying cheap markets for investment opportunities. Meb's unfortunate Kansas wheat crop incident.

Exploring common misunderstandings in investing, including asset allocation strategies, dividend-paying investment funds, and misconceptions around dividends and dividend stocks. Analyzing impact of high mutual fund fees and managers investing in their own funds. Reevaluating dividend stocks through a value strategy lens and comparing them to a value composite strategy with tax implications for potentially higher returns.

Meb starts by asking Jared to discuss a point from one of Jared’s newsletters: “If you think 2016 is the opposite of 1981, then you should do the opposite. In 1981, you should have bought stocks, sold gold, and bought bonds…” Jared gives us his thoughts, discussing how the landscape is far different now than in ’81, from heightened regulations to left-leaning policies. How should your portfolio respond? This dovetails into Meb and Jared discussing their “desert island” strategies (what would you invest in if you were about to be stuck on a desert island for 10 years). Then we hop to the Fed… Jared has a great quote “The Fed will pursue the path of least embarrassment.” He goes on to say how the fear of being embarrassed is the primary thing driving all the Fed’s decisions. What does this mean for their future decisions? They then switch gears, discussing a specific market bubble happening right now (it’s up 37% year-over-year). The problem is it’s going to pop – with “big implications for the global economy.” What is it? Find out on Episode #5. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What if you had perfect foresight and knew ahead of time which stocks would be the best performers? The reality is even if you knew this and invested accordingly, you’d still suffer gut-wrenching drawdowns along the way so painful (around 75%) that “even God would get fired as an active investor” if he was managing other peoples’ money. That’s the result of one of Wes’s studies which he and Meb discuss. By the way, with perfect foresight, you’d do about 28% a year, so what does that mean for those investment groups that want your business, claiming they do 35% or so a year? Then Wes says it’s not about volatility – it’s about protection against tail risk. That leads into a discussion on one of Meb’s favorite topics, managed futures, “one of the best diversifiers to a traditional portfolio.” There’s talk of Wes’s roboadvisor, timing factors, and Wes’s secret to getting the best prices on Amazon. All this and more on Episode #4. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is right now a good time to be in U.S. stocks? What about global stocks? Well, the answer in large part depends on the specific market’s valuation. Start investing in an overpriced market and your returns will likely be small. Start in a cheap market, and it’s more likely you’ll enjoy outperformance. So where are we today? And what does it mean for where you should be invested? Meb tells us in this episode, pointing out the most expensive and cheapest markets around the globe. He also asks “What percentage of your stock allocation is in the United States?” Want to know the average answer Meb gets when he asks that question to professional money managers? The answer will surprise you. Find out what it is on podcast #3. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Meb and Patrick cover lots of ground in this fun episode. They discuss stocks not to own right now, Meb’s worst market loss of all time, and Patrick’s career advice in response to listener Q&A. They then get a laugh reading aloud the worst book reviews that each has received on their respective investing books (posted anonymously on Amazon). There’s far more, including discussion on stock buybacks, roboadvisors, value versus growth investing, some microbrew tasting, and even how Meb once cheated his own grandmother. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A podcast discussing the global asset allocation model as a foundation for investing, comparing portfolio returns of respected fund managers. Surprising insights on the best performing allocation, alongside Charlie Munger's critique of the investment management business. Exploring historical data, behavioral impacts on stock investing, and the importance of fees and short-term performance in investment success.