Global Macro Update

All trade wars have a currency effect, but what happens when nations drive down their currencies to counter US tariffs? John Mauldin explains why he doesn’t believe China is using US treasuries as a weapon—and where the trade war will hurt most.

There’s no substitute for experience. That was evident this week in the markets. While most people were confused or frozen, at least one investor (our old friend Jared) was making money after spending the past few months positioning himself for a week like this one. Part of his strategy involves using options, but not for speculation…

Private equity is buying up America—everything from nursing homes to the local plumbing business. Some are calling it a bubble, with the value of global private equity deals reaching $2 trillion in 2024. Brendan Ballou, author of the new book Plunder, says the real trouble with PE comes from weak regulations that incentivize bad decisions.

Modern history is rife with examples of wars that grind on needlessly, only to end with no clear winner. There is a risk this will happen with Ukraine, though President Trump is eager to force a settlement. BCA Research Chief Strategist Marko Papic joins us to unpack what happens next.

Inflation is dropping quickly, but you wouldn’t know it from the headlines. Danielle DiMartino Booth explains why, highlighting layoffs and other underreported recession signals. As she’s said before, “There is no greater drag on inflation than job loss.”

George is back! Over half a million people caught my last interview with George shortly after the US and Russia began settlement discussions about Ukraine. Today he responds to the animated comments that followed, explaining why Russia cannot wage war in Europe, NATO's diminishing relevance, and how the flurry of activity at the White House compares to Roosevelt's first hundred days in office.

Former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian is here to talk deflationary tariffs, troubling signs from the housing market, the rising risk of a recession, and why he’s “super bullish on bonds.”

In the US, 10% of commercial egg-laying hens have died from the bird flu in the last eight weeks. Egg prices are set to soar another 41% this year. Are we in for another pandemic? Cumberland Advisors co-founder David Kotok discusses the economic domino effects of pandemics across history.

If you feel like the world order is being rearranged, you’re right. George Friedman explains the geopolitical machinations behind Ukraine settlement talks and President Trump’s plan to “redesign the world.”

Jacob Shapiro, Director of Research at Bespoke Group, returns to discuss the bright investment landscape ahead. He emphasizes the importance of tuning out distracting media noise to seize opportunities in the coming years. Key topics include the complexities of U.S.-China trade relations, America's manufacturing dependencies in critical sectors, and the geopolitical ramifications of the Ukraine conflict. Shapiro also highlights potential growth spots in emerging markets and the need for innovative thinking to navigate global economic challenges.