Rick Ferri’s career is itself a history of the investment management industry, with one notable exception. He tended to be years if not decades ahead of the pack on where the profession, the products, and the services needed to go. Rick has been an analyst and financial advisor for over 30 years, and the author of several books, including The Power of Passive Investing, All About Index Funds, and All About Asset Allocation, the main focus of my interview this time around. Rick is also the host of the Bogleheads on Investing Podcast. You can learn more about Rick on his website. Hopefully we can talk to Rick again after his new book, A Few Good Funds, comes to market. Welcome to Kick the Dogma, and my interview with Rick Ferri. Follow us on Twitter, Linkedin, and KTDpod.com.

New pod is up! Get it now on Amazon, Apple, Spotify, Stitcher, or Google. A book review of the 800-year history of inflation from author David Hackett Fischer. Three hundred pages in 35 minutes, with as much of the author’s original work quoted or referenced as possible. Learn the recurring themes in all Four Waves starting in the 12th century and ending (but not really) in the 20th century. Demand-side shocks, supply-side shocks, wages initially keeping up with inflation, then real wages falling, creating unsustainable inequality. Is there anything new under the sun? Not pandemics, climate volatility, or war. Listen and find out about the recurrence of stagflation, the importance of inflation expectations, and where we are in the Fourth Wave. The third installment in our Inflation Series, starting with the Feb 1 Morning Kick, continued in the March 4 Weekend Kickoff, and ending with this summary of The Great Wave, which you can buy here. Follow us on Twitter and Linkedin.

The Russian invasion creates a back-to-back global supply shock, just as the pain of a global pandemic was receding. Whether investment dollars and extracted commodities go into defense spending or alternative energy, we are in a new paradigm. With a new Cold War and a front creeping west, compounded by a cyber war, “buy and hold” is on hold. We go over the impact on commodities from the invasion generally and sanctions specifically, with a return to our old favorites Korea, Chile, and Norway. Plus an introduction to Australia. Heres’s that cybersecurity story. Follow us on Twitter and Linkedin. Check out MI2 Partners. Standby for a book review of The Great Wave by David Hackett Fischer, due to the teacher Monday morning. Peace.

Today on the pod, a book review of Asset Dedication by Stephen Huxley and Brent Burns. Asset Dedication, is an alternative to the 60/40 model discussed in the review of Phil Huber’s book Allocators Edge. Time and valuation matter. Each dollar is invested to optimize expected return over the investment horizon for that dollar, up until it is needed. Moreover, long-term returns are relatively predictive, according to Keith Ambachtsheer. I call this combination Time and Return-Weighted Allocation, or TWRA. Risk is not short-term volatility. Risk is permanent loss of capital, and failing to achieve your return objectives. Both Asset Dedication and TWRA address this. The pod also brings in William Green's new book, Richer, Wiser Happier. You can't eat risk-adjusted returns. www.ktdpod.com Sign up for blog and email notifications.

Subtitled “A modern guide to alternative investments and the future of diversification”, this book by Savant Wealth Management CIO Phil Huber warns about the pending disappointment in returns from the traditional 60/40 portfolio, and offers suggestions about how to do better. The book shares an outlook from Cliff Asness of AQR for a 1.4% real return from the blended portfolio over the medium term. As sad as this sounds, it’s much more optimistic than projections from GMO’s Jeremy Grantham. Either way, high starting valuations correlate with low future returns, and the future looks a bit bleak. Phil introduces the concepts around alternative investments generally, and “liquid alternatives” specifically, to help total returns without layering on too much extra volatility. Asness is one of my favorite financial writers, and you can check out his research starting here. I bought Phil’s book The Allocator’s Edge here. Please sign up for email notifications about new blog posts or podcasts below. Follow me on Twitter and Linkedin.

Updates on South Korea from The Economist, CEO of the Norway Oil Fund in the news here, which leads into a 10 minute discussion about Inflation, what it is, what it isn’t, why it’s so difficult to forecast, & what has historically worked when inflation gets away from the Fed. Follow us on LInkedIn & Twitter.

Weekend edition of Kick the Dogma, the fastest five minutes in finance. Interesting notes on South Korea and Japan, following updates on Ukraine and Norway from last week. These are not recommendations. Find GMO’s report on Japan here. Trillions by Robin Wigglesworth can be purchased here. Kia Niro story. One take on the Norwegian PM’s criticism of Russia here. Follow your host, John Emrich on Twitter @dogma_kick and LinkedIn . Sign up for our distribution list for latest developments in Dogma Land. Emails are infrequent and relevant.

We talk Norway, the Government Pension Fund Global, Chile, EMH, price realization, active vs passive, ESG & governance, the Cleese Principle (90/10), hand wringing over the growth in indexing, and more. Follow Robin @robinwigg on Twitter, www.FT.com where he is Global Finance Correspondent, Buy Robin’s book here. Listen to his interview with The Rational Reminder Podcast & @cameronpassmore, follow Wes Gray @alphaarchitect, Jason Zweig @jasonzweigwsj, and the paper praising the Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global was referenced in The Future of Pension Management by Keith Ambachtsheer. Follow your host, John Emrich @dogma_kick on Twitter and https://www.linkedin.com/in/kickthedogma/ on LinkedIn.

Today’s Morning Kick for Jan 21 includes brief updates on China, Russia (Ukraine), and Chile. Happy Friday!

Welcome to Kick the Dogma, the investing podcast about global asset allocation. In this brief introduction you will learn about the pod, your host John Emrich, and our first guest. https://www.ktdpod.com https://twitter.com/dogma_kick https://www.linkedin.com/in/kickthedogma/