Everybody's Business

Polymarket is a strange place. You can bet on the price of Ethereum, whether Russia and Ukraine will agree to a ceasefire this year or who the next French prime minister will be. As silly as this might sound, Polymarket is worth $8 billion, according to an investment by the owner of the New York Stock Exchange. This deal comes on the heels of the new partnership between the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and sports betting site FanDuel. Now, in addition to betting on wheat futures, you can bet your life savings on the Lions making it to the Super Bowl. (Side note: Please do not put your life savings on the Lions going to the Super Bowl).  For decades, Wall Street has fought the accusation that investing was “just gambling.” Banks, financial institutions, regulators and the US government have spent decades establishing credibility, legitimacy, oversight and institutions to distinguish Wall Street as much as possible from the nickel slots. Now it seems that Wall Street is embracing its inner casino. Does this shift mean investment banks, hedge funds and bond traders are really all about gambling now? Is there a difference between shorting Tesla and picking which Taylor Swift song will be the least streamed this week? (At least $500,000 is riding on Honey—check out our recent podcast on this very subject. This week , Bloomberg Odd Lots podcast co-host Joe Weisenthal joins Max and Stacey to talk betting markets, investing and what these new partnerships mean for the economy.  Also this week, Casey Newton, host of the Hard Fork podcast, joins to talk about the future of artificial intelligence. Worries about AI companies and technologies being over-valued have been making the rounds. If AI is indeed a bubble, the economic implications could be dire. At the same time, companies, think tanks and workers are desperately trying to game out what kind of impact AI will have on jobs and industries. Everyone, it seems, is placing their bets—and the stakes are high.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The federal government shut down on Wednesday, which in the near-term probably sounds worse than it is. Yes, 750,000 workers are expected to be furloughed and yes, certain functions including visitor centers at national monuments and the release of economic data will pause. But functions deemed “essential” are continuing: mail is still being delivered, courts are still open, airport security continues and animals at the National Zoo are being fed.  In other words, you might be forgiven for ignoring the latest dispute, which stems from a White House insistence that Democrats vote for a new spending bill and Democratic leaders insist the Republicans restore some of the massive cuts to health care they pushed through earlier this year before millions lose coverage. But this shutdown may play out differently, as Justin Wolfers, the University of Michigan economist and author, explains on this week’s episode of Everybody’s Business. The White House, led by budget director and Project 2025 author Russell Vought, has indicated it wants to go beyond merely furloughing staff–and instead use the threat of a crisis to make the kinds of drastic job cuts Donald Trump attempted in the early months of his second term. Like many of those cuts, these too are arguably illegal and already being challenged in court. The first round, under the auspices of Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency, was both wildly unpopular and disruptive, leading to a backlash that ultimately may have cost Republicans a special election in Wisconsin and forced Musk to leave the White House. The government shutdown gives Trump—through Vought this time—a second bite at the apple. Later on the episode, Bloomberg reporter Zeke Faux joins to talk about his latest story on Justin Sun, the crypto entrepreneur whose colorful life has included a diplomatic post in Grenada, spaceflights with Blue Origin, a prime minister post in a libertarian micronation and the purchase of one of the most talked-about works of art in recent memory. Most recently though, the headlines have centered around his dealings with Trump and how in just a few short months Sun managed to go from being sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission to seeing the case dropped and having dinner alongside the Republican president. Finally, we discuss the Bustle story about a supposed vibecession in sex work. Apparently, “sugar daddies” are cutting back on payments to their romantic partners, who have derisively begun calling them “Splenda daddies.” Stacey explains why, vibecession or no, the entire phenomenon is depressing.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This year came with a promising start for Argentina. Inflation seemed under control, investment was coming back, double-digit poverty was (according to the government) beginning to fall and President Javier Milei—the chainsaw wielding, leather jacket-wearing, self-described libertarian—was being hailed by supporters as a tough-love leader bringing the country’s economy back from crisis. Milei also became a favorite of fellow political travelers to the north, namely Donald Trump and Elon Musk. But the year hasn’t been kind to Argentina or its populist leader. Once again, the country finds itself in crisis—crushing debt, panicked investors and the threat of political instability. But this time the US is pledging to help. The Trump administration has offered its support, both in terms of money and encouraging investment in Argentine businesses. This week, Max and Stacey talk to David Papadopoulos, executive editor of markets, about what happened and whether Milei can turn the economy around. Also this week, Lucas Shaw joins the show to talk about two of the modern kings of digital: David Ellison, son of Oracle founder Larry Ellison, who quickly became one of the most important players in Hollywood when his company Skydance snapped up Paramount last month; and MrBeast, the YouTube breakout star who has built an empire on video stunts (and more recently chocolate bars) and whose company, Best Industries, after years of astonishing growth, is experiencing growing pains. The show also explores the latest fad in workplace culture: Quiet cracking. The combination of low hiring rates, increasing workplace unhappiness and an uncertain economy is squeezing workers to the limit. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this week’s episode of Everybody’s Business we're joined by Rohit Chopra, former director of the now largely kneecapped Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. He argues that Trump’s efforts to apply political pressure to the Fed present an opportunity to scrutinize the central bank’s decision-making. Chopra points out that the Fed’s governors, who tend to either come from academia or Wall Street, originally came from a more eclectic array of backgrounds—with perhaps more sensitivity to the needs of small business owners and consumers. “I really think a good central bank is really good for democracy,” Chopra says. “But I think it has to also change with the times so that it is responsive and that it is not seen as a group of priests and priestesses who make determinations about our lives without really understanding how the economy is working on the ground.” Also this week, we bring in Bloomberg News reporter Randall Williams to unpack the story that is currently roiling the world of professional basketball: allegations that Los Angeles Clippers-owner Steve Ballmer improperly funneled payments to one of the team’s stars via a dubious (and now bankrupt) fintech company, Aspiration. Ballmer has denied the allegations, which first surfaced in an episode of the podcast Pablo Torre Finds Out. Aspiration’s co-founder has denied being party to any scheme to evade the salary cap. Williams explains why the story has garnered so much interest among NBA owners and how it illustrates the importance of salary caps in order to maintain competitive balance.  Finally, we unpack a strange case of fake branding, involving the logo of Elon Musk’s aerospace company.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Not that long ago the US economy was wrestling with an interesting problem: jobs data looked very strong with historically low unemployment and historically low firings, but people didn’t feel good about the economy. The dissonance became known as the “vibecession” and was the topic of many economic and policy debates. The question was: Why do people feel bad about the economy when the economy is actually doing great? With help of revised data, we now know that the vibes were right. This week, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics—part of the Trump administration’s Department of Labor—released its latest data, which included a massive revision. The US economy created roughly 900,000 fewer jobs between March 2024 and March 2025 than previously thought, the BLS says. That means only about half the jobs we thought had been created actually materialized, according to the agency. How did this happen and what does this mean? This week, economist Kathryn Anne Edwards, host of the Optimist Economy podcast, joins us to talk about how a giant revision like this can happen, as well as how it reflects on the market and the economy. Also this week, Max Chafkin talks about his book The Contrarian, which looks at the world of Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel. We discuss his influence and what it reveals about the intersection of technology, money and ideology. Also why he is suddenly so interested in the “antichrist.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week we are joined by journalist and cultural commentator Sam Sanders, of the Sam Sanders Show, to unpack the lessons Hollywood is learning from its latest unexpected success: mega-viral sensation Kpop Demon Hunter. We discuss how Sony lost out on much of the movie's profits when it signed over the rights to Netflix–though arguably helped preserve its business during the Covid downturn by doing so–and how the success of KPop Demon Hunters at least partly vindicates Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos’ controversial claim that the experience of going to a movie theater is “outdated.” Sanders mostly agrees, suggesting that the theatrical experience will essentially go the way of opera–once a wildly popular medium that eventually settled into a narrow and extremely rarified niche. The songs are good too. We’re also joined by Odd Lots co-host Joe Weisenthal to fact check President Trump’s claim that the “stock market needs tariffs and ask college students about their AI habits as they head back to school. And, finally, we explain why, love them or hate them, tariffs are making your Pumpkin Spice Latte (not to mention any pumpkin spice cat litter you happen to buy this fall) more expensive.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week on Everybody’s Business from Bloomberg Businessweek, Editor Brad Stone and Stacey Vanek Smith talk Fed independence, Cracker Barrel, as well as the upcoming wedding that’s already moving markets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What does it say about the prospects for an artificial intelligence “golden age” that some of those who most enthusiastically predicted it are now tamping down expectations? Earlier this week, in what looked like damage control over the release of a new version of ChatGPT, OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman said investors have been inflating a speculative bubble in AI. He predicted “someone’s going to get burned.” Altman and other AI insiders seem more or less fine with that, arguing that asset bubbles often coincide with technology breakthroughs. The thinking goes like this: the dot-com bust was bad, but at the end of it we had a new information infrastructure that led to lasting economic growth. Maybe that happens this time around, but there’s reason to think an AI bust would be economically devastating—and not just for businesses that bet heavily on the software and data centers needed to run it.  On this week’s episode of Everybody’s Business, we explore the potential economic fallout of an AI implosion with Ed Zitron, a skeptic who makes a compelling case for panic in a recent essay and on his podcast, Better Offline. In other words, rather than continuing to embrace the new technology, maybe it’s time to hate it. The argument boils down to a problem of misalignment: For years, big tech companies have dumped hundreds of billions of dollars into developing ever-more advanced large language models (LLM) (like OpenAI’s GPT, Google’s Gemini and Anthropic’s Claude). Much of that money has gone to chipmakers, especially Nvidia, which sells the graphical processing units needed to train new models. All of this spending has sent asset prices soaring, creating a dynamic in which index funds are heavily weighted to a single industry—which you guessed it—threatens to crash the entire stock market if it falters. A similar dynamic may be playing out in the world of private credit, which tech companies are increasingly tapping to build data centers, creating another economic risk.At the same time, there are signs those wildly expensive LLMs are failing to generate commensurate financial returns. These include the blowback to the release GPT-5, which OpenAI had promoted as potentially god-like but which many users say is actually worse than the last version. There’s also a recently published study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology that showed the vast majority of pilot programs involving so-called generative AI failed to lead to revenue growth. Also on this week’s episode: We discuss the struggles of fast food companies with Bloomberg Businessweek’s Deena Shanker. Normally, they thrive in times of economic uncertainty, but McDonald’s has been struggling, partly she says because the company’s food is no longer seen as cheap. One exception to this trend? Taco Bell, which has thrived because it’s managed to keep prices low while being just unique enough to go viral on TikTok.  Finally, for our underrated story, we preview Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s big speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday. Get ready for some extremely low-key fireworks.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump has been back at the White House for little more than 6 months, but his mark on the US economy has been profound. If Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” was a symbol of the unfettered free market, the Republican president’s approach should perhaps be described as very hands on. This week on Everybody’s Business from Bloomberg Businessweek, Max Chafkin and Stacey Vanek Smith explore some of the industries being, well, handled by Trump. Trump’s latest right-hand man, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, sat down with the magazine to talk about his views on everything from government data to interest rates and how he, just like his 79-year-old boss, desires greater government involvement in the US economy. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Brad Stone joins us to break down the story. The most impactful economic policy Trump has put in place so far is his “most beautiful word.” Most of Trump’s tariffs are still in flux and subject to ongoing litigation, but legal or not, the effect of 34% tariffs on goods from China and other major trading partners has started showing up in US pricing data, including wholesale prices this week from the embattled Bureau of Labor Statistics, which rose the most they have in years. But all imports and exports are not created equal. Trump’s recent talks with US chipmakers Nvidia and Intel portend increased government involvement in the industry, including the introduction of export taxes on chips sold to China, which Bessent said could be a potential model for other industries as well. Also on this episode: A look at this week’s BLS inflation report. According to the government data, tariffs seem to be showing up on store shelves, especially in the coffee aisle, where prices are up more than 14% over last year. New York coffee lovers weigh in.    Bloomberg Businessweek’s Stone joins to talk Bessent, government data and government involvement in the chip industry.   Is sports betting ruining sports? Bloomberg News reporter Randall Williams joins to talk about the booming business of prop bets and why critics say it’s ruining games.   And finally the underrated story of the week: Artificial Intelligence gets personal. Many medical procedures and cancer screenings are now being assisted by AI. As is turns out, smarter technology could be making doctors dumber. About the show: every week, hosts Stacey Vanek Smith and Max Chafkin take a look at the week’s business news and break down what you need to know with the help of Bloomberg journalists, experts and the people and businesses trying to navigate the economy every day.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump’s decision to fire the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika McEntarfer, apparently in retribution for a report that showed slower job growth, was without precedent in recent US history. This week on Everybody’s Business we explore why presidents—at least since Richard Nixon—have left the BLS alone, and we hear from former BLS commissioner Erica Groshen on how exactly that data is collected. According to Groshen, the recent downward revisions in the rate of job growth (which Trump alleged without any evidence was a political hatchet job) were business as usual. She explains that such revisions happen because it takes months for the more than 100,000 businesses the government surveys every month to respond. Some fill in their data electronically; some send it by email or even fax. While the BLS waits, it puts out an estimate; those estimates are often revised later on. For the past few decades, this approach has been widely seen as a huge success. BLS data, which includes employment and inflation statistics, is relied on by researchers, economists and government policy planners—as well as by businesses. They use the data to help write budgets, plan hiring and set prices. Although Groshen optimistically contends that McEntarfer’s firing won’t immediately dent that perception, it comes amid budget cuts that have already limited the ability of BLS researchers to collect granular data and could lead to questions about reliability. Also this week, we discuss the controversy around artificial intelligence pricing, which has recently centered around the airline industry, widely seen as the undisputed leader in customer frustration. But the strategy is in fact coming for you on pretty much every type of good and service. We also debate the significance of the American Eagle “good jeans” controversy and ask how much consumers really think about culture wars when they buy dungarees. Finally: A counterintuitive approach to warding off one of America’s most feared predators.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.