The World of Intelligence

In part two of our podcast, Jenny Town, Rachel Minyoung Lee, and Martin Williams from 38 North and Cristina Varriale from Janes join Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to continue to unravel the implications of the new US administration on North Korea’s place on the world stage and how its relationship with Russia might evolve in 2025 and beyond.

In the first part of this podcast, Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett are joined by Jenny Town, Rachel Minyoung Lee, and Martin Williams from 38 North and Cristina Varriale from Janes to take a closer look at North Korea. With South Korea hitting headlines recently following President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment, the panel discusses North Korea’s reaction to these events and what the new US administration means for US-North Korea relations.

In this podcast Janes analysts F Xavier Casals and Claire Chu share their expertise with Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to explore the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. They discuss the analytic tools and insight they use to provide a framework for indicator and warning analysis and why a non-military invasion may be more likely.

Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett reflect on a year packed with podcasts. In the 26 episodes published in 2024, alongside their panel of guests, they explored emerging and current threats, global security trends, and the impact of misinformation, disinformation and artificial intelligence on open-source intelligence and society.

Claire Fuchs, an analyst from Janes GITI, brings her expertise in multiple languages to the forefront. She discusses the critical nuances of language in open-source intelligence, emphasizing the limitations of AI in translation. Claire highlights the challenges faced when analyzing complex Asian languages and how subtle linguistic details can lead to missed opportunities in intelligence gathering. The conversation further explores the significance of human linguists and cultural understanding in enhancing analytical precision and combating misinformation.

Harry Lawson, a Janes Red Team Analyst and large language model expert, dives into the fascinating world of AI and its role in open-source intelligence. He discusses the balance between cutting-edge technology and traditional analytical methods, highlighting both the benefits and challenges of using LLMs like chatGPT. Lawson examines the ethical implications and the importance of critical analysis in evaluating AI-generated content. He emphasizes the necessity of understanding biases and reliability issues to make informed intelligence decisions.

In the second part of this podcast Joseph Hatfield PhD and David Gioe PhD continue to explore the challenge of defining open-source intelligence (OSINT), why it should be considered a fundamental form of intelligence and why now might be the right time to redefine OSINT.

Joseph Hatfield PhD and David Gioe PhD join Harry and Sean to discuss the challenge of defining open-source intelligence alongside other intelligence disciplines and why now might be the right time to redefine OSINT.

Rachel Minyoung Lee, a Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center’s Korea Program and 38 North, shares her expertise on North Korea's opaque information environment. The discussion reveals the challenges of gathering open-source intelligence amidst strict government control. Lee highlights the evolving geopolitical dynamics, especially the implications of North Korean troop deployments to Russia. They dive into the regime's manipulation of narratives to maintain authority and the shifting perspectives on Korean reunification, hinting at potential future developments amid regional tensions.

Elliot Chapman is a Janes analyst who provides keen insights from the Israeli perspective, while Suraj Ganesan, also from Janes, offers his expertise on Hezbollah and open-source intelligence. They discuss the complex military operations between Israel and Hezbollah, highlighting tactical responses and the role of Iran. The duo explores Lebanon's political instability and its implications for future leadership amid rising tensions. They also emphasize the power of open-source intelligence in understanding casualty data and the evolving military landscape.