Coffee House Shots

Legendary pollster Prof Sir John Curtice joins the Spectator’s deputy political editor James Heale to look ahead to next week’s local elections. The actual number of seats may be small, as John points out, but the political significance could be much greater. If polling is correct, Reform could win a ‘fresh’ by-election for the first time, the mayoralties could be shared between three or more parties, and we could see a fairly even split in terms of vote share across five parties (Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives, the Green party, and Reform UK). The 2024 general election saw five GB-wide parties contest most seats for the first time. These set of local elections could solidify this ‘five-party political system'. In fact, says John, ‘Reform have already won these local elections’ by virtue of being able to contest all the seats available. Are we headed for a different kind of politics in Britain?Produced by Patrick Gibbons.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: podcast@spectator.co.uk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

James Heale, Deputy Political Editor at The Spectator, shares insights into the political maneuverings of Robert Jenrick, who’s been making headlines with his controversial remarks about a potential Tory Reform pact. They discuss Jenrick’s strategy to undermine Farage’s influence and the implications of the government's move to publish migrant crime data. The conversation also critiques the leadership dynamics within the Conservative Party, particularly contrasting Jenrick’s rising star with Kemi Badenoch’s challenges. It's a lively analysis of evolving UK politics.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves navigates trade talks in Washington while facing a grim economic forecast from the IMF. Polling reveals shifting voter trust in economic leadership, highlighting Labour's struggles against the Conservatives. With the local elections nearing, the rising cost of living looms large in voters' minds. The potential gains for Reform UK shake up traditional party dynamics. Lastly, declining voter turnout could reshape the political landscape, impacting the fortunes of all parties involved.

Happy St George’s Day! To celebrate, we thought we would discuss who is the most patriotic political leader — and why some struggle to communicate their love of country.Keir Starmer declared in an interview with the Mirror this morning that Labour is ‘the patriotic party’. This follows a more concerted effort from those within the party to become more comfortable with the flag. But is Keir Starmer actually a patriot? How will the ‘battle of the Union Jack’ play out at the local elections? And does Reform have a point to prove when it comes to patriotism?Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Claire Ainsley, former executive director of policy for the Labour party, now at the Progressive Policy Institute.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: podcast@spectator.co.uk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Political commentator Paul Goodman shares insights on the current political climate as Parliament resumes. He discusses the controversy surrounding the Supreme Court ruling on gender identity and its impact on party dynamics. With the local elections approaching, Goodman notes the rising influence of smaller parties like Reform and the Greens, potentially changing the landscape for the traditional Labour and Conservative parties. The stakes have never been higher, and the discussions signal a pivotal moment in UK politics.

Calum Miller, the new MP for Bicester and Woodstock and foreign affairs spokesperson for the Liberal Democrats, shares his insights on the party's ambitions to challenge the Conservatives. He discusses how Brexit has reshaped voter alliances and the surge of support from disillusioned former Tory voters. Miller reflects on his journey into politics, driven by a desire for better governance, and the exciting potential of new faces in the party. He also emphasizes the importance of engaging with local communities to solidify the Liberal Democrats' position in British politics.

Stephen Bush, a political commentator and journalist for the Financial Times, joins Katy Balls as she bids farewell to her role at the Spectator. They reflect on a decade rife with political upheaval, including the tenure of six prime ministers. The duo discusses the evolving landscape of Conservative politics, the precarious position of the Labour Party, and the implications of economic turbulence on governance. They also touch on the contrasting political cultures of the UK and the US, offering personal anecdotes that bring a relatable edge to the conversation.

Jonathan Ashworth, former Labour MP and CEO of Labour Together, shares his insights as he transitions to writing a memoir and starting a podcast. He discusses the mixed morale within the Labour Party leading up to the local elections, revealing the sentiments of members and the challenges posed by Reform. Ashworth also highlights Labour Together's role as a vital think tank, stressing the need for innovative strategies to address key voter concerns like the NHS and the cost of living.

In a lively discussion, key political figures dissect Wes Streeting's pivotal role in shaping NHS reforms and the Labour Party's future. His leadership is scrutinized against the backdrop of the cost-of-living crisis and immigration, all while battling internal party tensions. The conversation also shifts to Nigel Farage's local election efforts, with unexpected insights on black cabs as ideal podcast studios. As one host bids farewell, listeners get a delightful surprise ending, making for a memorable and insightful listen.

Luke Tryl, from Pollsters More In Common, joins political analyst James Heale to unravel the complexities of the upcoming local elections. They discuss the potential three-way split among Reform, Labour, and Conservatives based on polling data. Insights reveal how the parties will measure success against past performances, particularly the Conservatives facing expected losses. They delve into the electoral dynamics, strategizing for swing voters, and the impact of left-wing politics on the voter landscape.