ASPI Podcast: Policy, Guns & Money

Stabilising fragile states has been a long-term focus of US foreign policy, this also became a focus of the US and its allies in their operations in Afghanistan. Anastasia Kapetas speaks to Frances Brown from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace about the lessons that can be learnt from Afghanistan and how the United States can work with allies and like-minded countries to promote democracy globally. A new report from the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group offers a whole-of-nation climate-security risk assessment. Dr Robert Glasser speaks to Air Vice-Marshal John Blackburn AO (Retd), who co-authored this report. They discuss Australia’s shortcomings in responding to climate security risks, and what the government needs to do to prepare for the security implications of devastating climate impacts, both in Australia and in our near region. How have Covid-19, natural disasters and coercion affected Australia’s business and trade positioning? Michael Shoebridge and Gill Savage explore this in their ASPI report ‘New beginnings: Rethinking business and trade in an era of strategic clarity and rolling disruption’. They argue that this period of disruption provides opportunities to Australia to invest in what we’re good at and what we need. Mentioned in this episode: 'New beginnings: Rethinking business and trade in an era of strategic clarity and rolling disruption' report: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/new-beginnings-rethinking-business-and-trade 'Missing in Action: Responding to Australia’s climate & security failure': https://www.aslcg.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ASLCG_MIA_Report.pdf Guests in this episode (in order of appearance): Anastasia Kapetas: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/anastasia-kapetas Dr Frances Z. Brown: https://carnegieendowment.org/experts/1406 Dr Robert Glasser: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/robert-glasser Air Vice-Marshal John Blackburn AO (Retd): https://www.aslcg.org/people/john-blackburn/ Michael Shoebridge: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/michael-shoebridge Gill Savage: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/gill-savage

This week, Prime Minister Scott Morrison, President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the establishment of a new defence pact between Australia, the US and the UK - AUKUS. As part of this new partnership, Australia will move to acquire nuclear-powered submarines and has cancelled its $90 billion submarine program with France’s Naval Group. Peter Jennings, Michael Shoebridge and Dr Marcus Hellyer share their initial reactions to the new pact and what this means for Australia’s defence capabilities. This past summer in the Northern Hemisphere was marked with unprecedented floods, fires, droughts and heat waves. Anastasia Kapetas and Dr Robert Glasser provide an update discuss these catastrophic events and how Australia can prepare for simultaneous climate hazards domestically and in our region. Back in 2000, the Taliban announced a ban against growing opium poppy which led to a rapid decline in production. The ban was interrupted by the beginning of the US war in Afghanistan in 2021 when production levels increased. Dr John Coyne and Dr Teagan Westendorf consider what the return of the Taliban to power means for opium production in Afghanistan and what impacts the Taliban’s policies will have on the global drug trade. Guests in this episode (in order of appearance): Michael Shoebridge: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/michael-shoebridge Peter Jennings: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/peter-jennings Dr Marcus Hellyer: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/marcus-hellyer Dr Robert Glasser: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/robert-glasser Anastasia Kapetas: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/anastasia-kapetas Dr John Coyne: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/john-coyne Dr Teagan Westendorf: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/teagan-westendorf Image: Submarine via StockVault.net Background music: "Comings and Goings" by Ketsa and "This Letter of Mine" by De Moi - both via the FreeMusicArchive.org

Welcome to episode 100 of Policy, Guns and Money! To celebrate our 100th episode, ASPI's Executive Director Peter Jennings speaks to former Australian Prime Minister John Howard and the Honourable Kim Beazley, Governor of Western Australia. They consider some of the key strategic events from the past twenty years, including the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan; the importance of the US-Australia alliance and ASPI's 20th anniversary. Mentioned in this episode: 'ANZUS at 70' report: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/anzus-70-past-present-and-future-alliance Guests (in order of appearance): Mr Peter Jennings PSM: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/peter-jennings Mr John Howard OM AC: https://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian?MPID=ZD4 The Honourable Kim Beazley AC: https://govhouse.wa.gov.au/about-the-governor/

On 1 September 1951, the ANZUS Treaty was signed in San Francisco. Peter Jennings speaks to Mike Goldman, Chargé d’Affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Australia, about the importance of the US-Australia alliance and the relevance of the Treaty seventy years on. They discuss shared challenges, including climate change; what makes the alliance so enduring, and what to expect from the upcoming AUSMIN meeting in Washington DC. Guests (in order of appearance): Peter Jennings: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/peter-jennings Michael Goldman: https://au.usembassy.gov/embassy-consulates/canberra/ambassador/ Background music: "Before the countdown" by Maarten Schellekens via the FreeMusicArchive.org

In this very special episode, Peter Jennings, Michael Shoebridge and Graeme Dobell discuss the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s 20-year history which has been marked by the the production of a sparkling and insightful work: ‘An informed voice: ASPI, 2001-2021’ They explore some of the key strategic moments for Australia over the past two decades and discuss some of the highlights from ASPI’s policy analysis over the years amidst different regional and global challenges. Mentioned in this episode: ‘An informed voice: ASPI, 2001-2021’: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/informed-and-independent-voice-aspi-2001-2021 In this episode: Michael Shoebridge. Director: Defence, Strategy & National Security: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/michael-shoebridge Peter Jennings. ASPI Executive Director: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/peter-jennings Graeme Dobell. ASPI Senior Fellow: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/graeme-dobell Music: 'Just Wondering' by Maarten Schellekens via FreeMusicArchive.org

Following the collapse of Afghanistan’s military and the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul, the US and its allies are accelerating efforts to evacuate their citizens and Afghan refugees from the country. Brendan Nicholson speaks to Peter Jennings about how the security situation deteriorated so rapidly, the short and long-term security risks for Afghanistan and how China might look to engage with the Taliban. Governments across the globe are grappling with how to deal with disinformation-for-hire operations and cyber-enabled foreign interference. The challenges posed by disinformation operations in the Asia-Pacific are explored in the new ASPI report ‘Influence for Hire: The Asia-Pacific’s online shadow economy.' Dr Jake Wallis, Ariel Bogle and Albert Zhang discuss the dangers of a manipulated information environment in the region and how policymakers should respond. Dr Teagan Westendorf speaks to Ariel Bogle about her new report ‘Buying and Selling Extremism: New funding opportunities in the right-wing extremist online ecosystem.’ They discuss de-platforming trends and the different platforms being used to fundraise. Mentioned in this episode: ‘Influence for Hire: The Asia-Pacific’s online shadow economy’ report: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/influence-hire ‘Buying and selling extremism: New funding opportunities in the right-wing extremist online ecosystem’ report: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/buying-and-selling-extremism Guests (in order of appearance): Brendan Nicholson: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/brendan-nicholson Peter Jennings: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/peter-jennings Dr Jake Wallis: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/jacob-wallis Albert Zhang: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/albert-zhang Ariel Bogle: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/ariel-bogle Dr Teagan Westendorf: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/teagan-westendorf Music: 'Salt Lake Swerve' by Maarten Schellekens via the Free Music Archive: https://freemusicarchive.org/music/maarten-schellekens/salt-lake-swerve Image: Copyright Commonwealth of Australia. Department of Defence. http://images.defence.gov.au/S20212537

Since the withdrawal of US and allied troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban's military offensive across the country has seen the group capture a number of provincial capitals over the past week, including Afghanistan's third largest city, Herat. Anastasia Kapetas speaks to counterinsurgency expert Dr David Kilcullen about the future of governance in Afghanistan. They also discuss the geopolitics of the region, including China and Pakistan’s interests, and how the United States could respond as the Taliban continues to advance toward the capital. Earlier this week, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its Sixth Assessment Report. The report found that the world is likely to hit 1.5 degrees of warming by 2030 if we continue on our current trajectory. Dr Robert Glasser speaks to one of the report’s contributing authors Professor Mark Howden about the report’s findings, climate risks for Australia and the policy responses required to address this global challenge. Mentioned in this episode: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ Guests in this episode (in order of appearance): Anastasia Kapetas: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/anastasia-kapetas Dr David Kilcullen: https://www.unsw.adfa.edu.au/david-kilcullen Dr Robert Glasser: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/robert-glasser Professor Mark Howden: https://iceds.anu.edu.au/people/academics/professor-mark-howden

This special episode features an excerpt from a recent ASPI webinar with international cyber expert Marietje Schaake on technology, democracy and the question of accountability. Marietje joined ASPI’s Fergus Hanson for a conversation on the challenges that technologies create for and how democracies can work together amidst rising authoritarianism to better regulate technologies. They discussed the proliferation of surveillance tools available on the free market, including Pegasus spyware, and the need for companies to move away from a values agnostic approach to a human rights centred approach to business. Marietje is the International Policy Director at Stanford University’s Cyber Policy Center. She is also International Policy Fellow at Stanford’s Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence and President of the Cyber Peace Institute. Watch the webinar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c30_AoPDIdI Guests in this episode: Fergus Hanson: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/fergus-hanson Marietje Schaake: https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/people/marietje-schaake Music: "Just Wondering" by Maarten Schellekens via the FreeMusicArchive.org

Recently, Covid-19 cases in Southeast Asia have hit new highs, making it the global epicentre of the coronavirus. As countries across the region try to curb the spread of the Delta variant, Richard Maude and Dr Huong Le Thu detail how Australia can support its neighbours and the region’s potential path to recovery. This year marks the 60th anniversary of the Antarctic Treaty, which governs international use of the Southern Continent. Research intern Matthew Page speaks to polar geopolitics expert Dr Elizabeth Buchanan, Lecturer of Strategic Studies with Deakin University for the Defence and Strategic Studies Course at the Australian War College Canberra and a Fellow of the Modern War Institute at West Point Military Academy. All views are her own. They discuss the geopolitics of the region, the usefulness of the treaty system 60 years on and what Australia should be focusing on in its Antarctic policy. The Port of Darwin, currently under a 99-year lease to Chinese company Landbridge, is of strategic importance to Australia and our allies. Co-author of the latest report from Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre, ‘Lead me to the harbour!: Plotting Darwin Harbour's future course’, Dr John Coyne joins Michael Shoebridge to discuss how Australia can maximise the strategic value of Darwin Port through a unified direction, that accounts for contrasting interests and stakeholders. Mentioned in this episode: ‘Lead me to the harbour!: Plotting Darwin Harbour’s future course’ report: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/lead-me-harbour-plotting-darwin-harbours-future-course Guests (in order of appearance): Dr Huong Le Thu: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/huong-le-thu Richard Maude: https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/richard-maude Matthew Page: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/matthew-page Dr Elizabeth Buchanan: https://www.deakin.edu.au/about-deakin/people/elizabeth-buchanan Michael Shoebridge: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/michael-shoebridge Dr John Coyne: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/john-coyne Music: "Hachimantai Snow" by Maarten Schellekens via the FreeMusicArchive.org

Earlier this month, Cuban citizens took to the streets across the country to protest against deteriorating living conditions amidst the country’s economic and coronavirus crisis. ASPI’s David Engel was previously Australian Ambassador to Mexico and non-resident ambassador to Cuba. He speaks with Professor Adrian Hearn about the protests and their political significance, the impact of social media and the government response. In the wake of the targeted attacks on Microsoft Exchange servers, Australia’s own cyber security vulnerabilities are increasingly being highlighted. Fergus Hanson is joined by the Cyber Security Cooperative Research Centre’s CEO Rachael Falk and Anne-Louise Brown for a discussion on the Microsoft Exchange hack, as well as the growing frequency of ransomware crimes in Australia, and how the Australian Government can help better protect communities and businesses. Peter Jennings speaks to Daniel Ward about his new ASPI report, ‘Losing our agnosticism: How to make Australia’s foreign influence laws work’. They consider why Australia pursued country agnosticism for foreign influence legislation and potential solutions to adequately address foreign influence concerns. Mentioned in this episode: ‘Exfiltrate, encrypt, extort: The global rise of ransomware and Australia’s policy options’ by Rachael Falk & Anne-Louise Brown: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/exfiltrate-encrypt-extort ‘Losing our agnosticism. How to make Australia’s foreign influence laws work’ by Daniel Ward: https://bit.ly/36SxVDR Guests (in order of appearance): David Engel: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/david-engel Professor Adrian Hearn: https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/profile/460793-adrian-hearn Fergus Hanson: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/fergus-hanson Rachael Falk: https://cybersecuritycrc.org.au/rachael-falk Anne-Louise Brown: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/anne-louise-brown Peter Jennings: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/peter-jennings Daniel Ward: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/daniel-ward