On Investing

Liz Ann Sonders and Kathy Jones dive into the implications of a recent Federal Reserve meeting, emphasizing the looming threat of stagflation. They explore the intricacies of inflation, discussing consumer perceptions and the effects of monetary policy changes. The impact of rising trade policy uncertainty on businesses is also highlighted, alongside the disconnect between soft and hard economic data. The conversation underscores the importance of tracking essential economic indicators to navigate an unpredictable economic landscape.

Kevin Gordon, Key Research Associate and Senior Investment Strategist, brings his expertise to discuss the looming recession concerns. The conversation highlights contrasts between bearish investor sentiment and resilient consumer behavior. They dive into the implications of labor market dynamics and recent earnings challenges, emphasizing the uncertainty business leaders face. Gordon also touches on key economic indicators to monitor, including retail sales and upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, making it a crucial listen for anyone tracking the economy.

In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders review some of the recent questions they have received from investors. Their questions and answers focus on the current economic landscape and cover topics ranging from bond yields to the impact of tariffs to the Federal Reserve's stance to the performance of key indexes and stocks. They explore the complexities of government debt, the dollar's reserve status, and the ongoing debate between growth and value stocks, providing insights into what investors should watch moving forward.Check out schwab.com/FAQs to see more frequently asked questions and whether any questions you may have are already answered there.Kathy and Liz Ann also discuss the data and economic indicators they will be watching in the coming week.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Currency trading is speculative, volatile and not suitable for all investors.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Positive correlation refers to a relationship in which two variables tend to move in the same direction (i.e., they both increase, or they both decrease). Negative correlation refers to a relationship in which the variables tend to move in opposite directions (i.e., one increases, and the other decreases, or vice versa).(0325-30G5) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ivy Zelman, the Executive Vice President and co-founder of Zelman & Associates, shares her expertise on the housing market's evolving dynamics post-pandemic. She discusses significant migration trends and their influence on housing demand. The conversation reveals the unique challenges of affordability and highlights how climate change is reshaping construction methods. Ivy also examines the contrasting roles of public and private builders, emphasizing regional market variations and potential supportive tailwinds for investors.

Phil Mackintosh, chief economist at Nasdaq, shares his insights on navigating the unique post-pandemic economic cycle. He discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation and global trade, emphasizing the need for diversification in investment strategies. Mackintosh explores the roles of the Federal Reserve and immigration on the labor force, while examining the transformative effects of AI on productivity and corporate profitability. He also highlights the challenges for small-cap companies amid rising costs and interest rates, offering a comprehensive outlook on economic opportunities and risks.

Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research, discusses the intriguing dynamics of today's market, focusing on the concentration of U.S. equities and China's trade surplus. He highlights how AI is reshaping the tech landscape and the implications of potential market bubbles. The conversation also covers the impact of tariffs on inflation and consumer costs, as well as shifts in infrastructure spending in North America and Europe. Gave offers insights into the future of technology and the economic landscape amid rising government layoffs.

Kathy Jones chats with Dr. Richard Clarida, a seasoned economist and PIMCO’s global economic advisor, about pressing economic issues. They delve into how current tariffs are reshaping the bond market and influencing Federal Reserve policy. Clarida shares insights on the Fed's structure and the importance of transparent communication, especially amid inflation uncertainties. They also discuss critical economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index and what investors should keep an eye on to navigate the shifting landscape.

Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, is a trailblazer in fundamental indexing, challenging traditional investment norms. He explains how fundamental indexing selects companies based on real economic size rather than market cap, leading to potentially better returns. Arnott highlights the pitfalls of forecasting market trends and critiques established financial theories like the efficient market hypothesis. The discussion also touches on the emotional factors that drive investor behavior, offering fresh perspectives on market dynamics.

In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders and Kathy Jones discuss the intersection of market analysis and political developments, particularly focusing on the implications of a second Trump term. They explore the performance of major tech stocks, the impact of regulatory changes on various sectors, and the current state of the bond market. The conversation also delves into the ongoing earnings season, highlighting the trends in corporate performance and expectations for the Federal Reserve's future actions amid economic uncertainty.Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann look ahead to the data and economic indicators that investors should be watching next week. You can read Liz Ann and Kevin Gordon's article, which she mentions, here: "A Look at Hard vs. Soft Data."On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(0125-K9Z0) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this conversation, Kathy Jones and Cooper Howard discuss the impact of climate shocks, particularly wildfires in Los Angeles, on the municipal bond market. They explore the risks associated with California municipal bonds, the financial implications for issuers, and the broader trends in climate-related events. Cooper emphasizes the importance of diversification for investors to mitigate potential risks and highlights the increasing frequency of climate shocks over the years. The discussion also touches on the role of federal assistance in managing the aftermath of such events. You can read more from Cooper Howard about municipal bonds, including the potential impact of climate shocks, on Schwab's Insights & Education site. Kathy and Liz Ann also analyze the latest inflation data and take a look ahead to the economic indicators that investors should be watching next week. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Tax-exempt bonds are not necessarily a suitable investment for all persons. Information related to a security's tax-exempt status (federal and in-state) is obtained from third parties, and Schwab does not guarantee its accuracy. Tax-exempt income may be subject to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Capital appreciation from bond funds and discounted bonds may be subject to state or local taxes. Capital gains are not exempt from federal income tax.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.All issuer names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.(0125-HCN5) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.