I’m excited to share my conversation with Max Frumes, co-author of The Casesar’s Palace Coup (with Sujeet Indap). I’m a big fan of the book and previously shared some notes on Twitter. It’s a deep dive into the buyout and bankruptcy of casino giant Caesar’s Entertainment and the slugfest between investors like Apollo, Oaktree, Appaloosa, GSO, Elliott, and some of the nation’s most expensive law firms. It’s a great introduction into the world of distressed investing and the prevailing culture. I’ve written previously about how distressed credit is a “knife fight over a limited number of slices” which shapes a scarcity mindset. The book illustrates the intense negotiations and explains the “creditor on creditor violence” that can take place (a recent example is Wesco). Max and I discussed how to break down such a complex story, explored key turning points, discussed the culture among distressed investors, what makes distressed investors successful, why there was no long-term damage for Apollo, how other investors were actually inspired by their moves, and how the space has changed in general. A key takeaway for me was that the participants in this game are very smart, creative, ruthless, and extremely competitive. This is a complex and difficult game to play and one should consider very carefully whether to enter the competition. A few quotes from the conversation: “It is a very rich, fascinating industry because it is a combination of chess and poker, depending on what stage a restructuring is at.” “Each of these firms does have their own personality. We go into detail about the origins of Apollo which was the most interesting because it was defined by brilliance and impunity, willing to push the bounds to the very edge of what is what's permissible under the law, under the credit docs. And that does go back to Mike Milken’s firm Drexel Burnham. That's where Leon Black was one of the senior directors at the time it went bankrupt.” “Firms who are the most successful in this industry are those who have expert knowledge and a good handle on the legal aspect, understanding valuation, and then the industry knowledge itself mixed with understanding game theory. Some people are more savvy with the press. Some people are more savvy with the orchestration of creditor or organization. Some people are more willing to be an iconoclast and go against the grain.” “Ultimately the examiners reports said they had actual and constructive fraudulent conveyance claims against and corporate governance claims … a lot of them were simply because the creditors did not have independent directors during the time these decisions … where there's conflicts of interest. It seemed like the private equity sponsor was basically controlling everything. … So the lesson wasn't, maybe we shouldn't do those things. The lesson was let's put some independent directors in there.”

I’m happy to share my conversation with Evan Tindell of Bireme Capital. I’ve enjoyed Evan’s thoughtful letters over the past couple of years and it was time to talk about this approach to investing. We dove into Evan’s background as a poker player, how he looks to exploit biases in his investment process, and how he navigated the ‘20-’21 bubble in growth stocks as a short-seller and value-oriented investor. Disclaimer: This content is for entertainment purposes only. This is not investment advice. I am not your fiduciary or advisor. Do your own work and seek your own financial, tax, and legal advice before making any investment decisions.

“PayPal started off as a product with no use case. Then we had a use case but no business model. Then we had to build a sustainable business.” Amy Klement I’m very excited to share my conversation with Jimmy Soni, the author The Founders: The Story of Paypal. [00:01:00]: Introduction, how did Jimmy find the story and go about the research process? [00:17:00]: Paypal’s unique team and recruiting. [00:24:00]: Paypal’s journey of pivoting and iterating the product and business model. [00:34:00]: Culture of truth-seeking and debate, workaholism, “Paypal PTSD.” [00:42:00]: Paypal’s three leadership coups. [00:49:00]: Risk-mitigation and timing were key to survival. [00:57:00]: What were the lessons for the Paypal diaspora? [01:061:00]: Culture of ownership and giving people a lot of responsibility quickly.

This is my conversation with Will Thomson of Massif Capital, a long-short fund in real assets, and particularly the “sectors most important to a low carbon economy: Energy, Basic Materials and Industrials.” It complements a written Q&A on the firm's process and thematic outlook. A few highlights: Will is fairly bearish on the current setup of a stable, globalized world. He believes we’re moving from a highly integrated world to a multi-polar one in which “spheres of influence” play a much greater role and affect commodities and trade. Energy and food are example sectors in which nations will increasingly to protect their own interests and create resilience. “What comes next is going to be very different from the past 30 years. And it’s going to be very good, I think, for real assets and natural resources.” “We're gonna see a fundamental re-working of trade flows along different geopolitical lines.” Political acumen will become more important for management teams. (An anecdote from Disney on its philosophy operating abroad: “We always ask, ‘how does it reflect on the Mouse?’”) The collapse of the USSR led to a decline in Russia’s industrial capacity relative to its commodity production, leaving global commodity markets well supplied. That stability has come to an end. Europe’s decarbonatization efforts could go into overdrive and lead to attractive long-term opportunities among utilities and industrials. Will doesn’t believe he can forecast commodity cycles but his best guess is that we’re in the "first third."

This is a re-upload of the episode at higher volume after some feedback that the conversation was difficult to understand on some devices. I’m very excited to share with you all a conversation with my friend Dan McMurtrie of Tyro Partners. The entire interview is about a topic that I believe is under-discussed but of vital importance to any investor: resilience and recovery when dealing with sustained pressure and stress. I believe this is crucial to longevity in investing. A number of great investors have commented or hinted at the mental and physical strain from a combination of market volatility and personal or business issues. Many retired because they were simply too exhausted and burned out to continue. You can find detailed show notes, examples, and a transcript on my substack - neckar.substack.com. "The goal of investing under stress is serenity. If you can, in times of extreme stress, get your life to be mundane that's a victory." "You'll hear a lot of managers say, Hey, I bought the market in the financial crisis, but they're probably not going to get on TV and say, and I threw up in the trashcan for it.” "When things go wrong, you're short a put on your own time.” "Think about it like a team, like a sports team. We need to have players who can execute plays at all times. And in order to have people who can execute plays at all times, some people have to have some Gatorade on the bench and let's just accept that and engineer around it.” [00:01:00]: Introduction. Why is resilience important? [00:07:00]: Where to find good advice? How to broach the subject? [00:20:00]: What are the different dimensions in which this matters (i.e. individual vs. team)? [00:37:00]: Which non-investment areas offer useful insights? [00:50:00]: What are specific best practices? Are these idiosyncratic or are there universal themes?

I’m very excited to share with you all a conversation with my friend Dan McMurtrie of Tyro Partners. The entire interview is about a topic that I believe is under-discussed but of vital importance to any investor: resilience and recovery when dealing with sustained pressure and stress. I believe this is crucial to longevity in investing. A number of great investors have commented or hinted at the mental and physical strain from a combination of market volatility and personal or business issues. Many retired because they were simply too exhausted and burned out to continue. You can find detailed show notes, examples, and a transcript on my substack - neckar.substack.com. "The goal of investing under stress is serenity. If you can, in times of extreme stress, get your life to be mundane that's a victory." "You'll hear a lot of managers say, Hey, I bought the market in the financial crisis, but they're probably not going to get on TV and say, and I threw up in the trashcan for it.” "When things go wrong, you're short a put on your own time.” "Think about it like a team, like a sports team. We need to have players who can execute plays at all times. And in order to have people who can execute plays at all times, some people have to have some Gatorade on the bench and let's just accept that and engineer around it.” [00:01:00]: Introduction. Why is resilience important? [00:07:00]: Where to find good advice? How to broach the subject? [00:20:00]: What are the different dimensions in which this matters (i.e. individual vs. team)? [00:37:00]: Which non-investment areas offer useful insights? [00:50:00]: What are specific best practices? Are these idiosyncratic or are there universal themes?

I'm reading my full piece David Tepper: The King of Bouncing Back and key takeaways from the second part, What I Learned From David Tepper. You can find both pieces with all quotes and sources on my substack: neckar.substack.com. “For better or worse we’re a herd leader. We’re at the front of the pack. We're one of the first movers. First movers are interesting; you get to the good grass first, or sometimes the lion eats you." "In the outside world, I’m that easygoing person. But if I’m on the field, I wanna win. And we win a lot.” Sections: Growing up in Pittsburgh Republic Steel The Goldman Setback The Horse Leaves the Barn Emerging Market Adventures Dotcom Distress The Delphi Distraction The Crisis Hits Inflection Epilogue Lessons: Don’t do it for money alone. Lazy competitive. Be smart enough to get lucky. Find your own style. Ahead of the herd. But don't bet the firm. Bouncing back in life and markets. Unemotional under pressure. Staying nimble. Optimists win in the long run. Keep having fun.

Today I’m joined by my dear friend Tom Morgan for a wide-ranging conversation around finding flow, recognizing resonance, the idea of moloch and slack, prophets and truth in the modern world, embodiment, and connecting mind and heart. Tom is one of my favorite writers and idea synthesizers. You can find his work at the KCP Group and on Twitter. It was a deeply personal conversation because I struggle with a lot of these questions as I’m trying to navigate this new stage of my life. You can tell from the way I struggled to formulate some of the questions. So, don’t hold it against Tom that we spent a lot of time on ideas such as following your curiosity, being vulnerable, and navigating personal crises. I hope you find the conversation as interesting as I did. Tom managed to articulate his mission in life towards the end. So it was definitely worth it. You can find full show notes on my substack.

I’m very excited to share my conversation with Rob Wertheimer of Melius Research and one of the co-authors of Lessons from the Titans (my notes) I really enjoyed digging into the book’s big themes around the culture, business systems, and leadership of some of the most successful industrial companies. Rob shared his lessons on finding other compounders, evaluating leaders, digging into incentive structures, touring factories, and the best research note he ever wrote - but never published. Show notes, quotes, and transcript on neckar.substack.com. “You know, my job is a tricky one. You have to be arrogant enough to have an opinion, and humble enough to know you're probably wrong most of the time.”

I’m very excited to share my conversation with William Green (@williamgreen72), the author of RICHER, WISER, HAPPIER: How the World's Greatest Investors Win in Markets and Life. It’s one of my favorite investment books this year because it is so much more. William called it a “stealth spiritual book” and I put a sticker on my copy: “This is not a book about investing.” This conversation was a about William’s own journey, his search for worldly wisdom in everything from Zen Buddhism to Stoicism to the Kabbalah, and the many lessons he learned from great investors. You can find the full highlights and a full transcript on my substack.  Highlights: 2.00: Introduction, William’s journey to the book. 7.00: William’s study of everything from Zen Buddhism to the Stoics to the Kabbalah. “Tell me about what you're reading and why and how it's influenced your life?” "I dip into the Zohar almost every day" 24.00: Sometimes life has to burn down? “We can get subtly misaligned and feel that we're going in the wrong direction, but you keep going. Sometimes you need it all to fall apart in a fairly dramatic way, whether it's a marriage or a job health, a career or reputation, you kinda need it to collapse.” William’s own setback and dealing with being laid off during the financial crisis. 31.00: How did he pick the subjects and ideas of the book? "One idiosyncrasy of this book is that I’ve focused almost exclusively on investors whom I like and admire." 43.00: “I write at some point in that epilogue, I say there is as great honor in the simple virtue of perseverance. And I don't say that lightly. I think that really deeply, I mean, there's something, one of the things about writing is that when, when you really simplify and distill things, you're always worried that people will see how banal your mind is and how trivial you are. But, actually truth is pretty simple, I think. And so for me, when I'm condensing it down to that, I mean, I said there are two great lessons for me from Miller's Miller's downfall and recovery, because his recovery has been equally spectacular. One of them is about the simple virtue of perseverance and [00:44:00] one of them is everyone suffers.” 48.00: How do I regain sort of control or semblance of control of, of the inner game or if my mind? Is reading enough? 58.00: “And, and so I'm not super impressed just with the ability to make money and not live a more thoughtful life. I think I was more impressed with that when I was younger. I liked that aspect of the [00:58:00] game of just being able to outwit the crowd. There's something about that, that I found very, very appealing.” 59.00: What is it like to write about people who are very successful financially? Is there a downside (envy)? “Why their lives resonated with me, whether it was a Bill Miller or a Nick Sleep, or a Monish Pabrai or Charlie Munger, in some ways they were all outsiders who had diverged from the crowd. And they were thinking in a very, in a very free way, they were questioning conventional opinion and they had constructed their lives in a way that was very true to who they are. So that resonated deeply with me because I could see that I was also an outsider who at least in my own mind who didn't naturally want to go with the crowd.” 1.11.00: Self awareness and lessons for non-professional investors. “Stumbling” into the right strategy. 1.20.00: Writing a substack vs. a book.