The New Bazaar

Joining Cardiff for this episode is Avi Goldfarb, Rotman Chair In Artificial Intelligence and Healthcare At The Rotman School Of Management, University Of Toronto, and the co-author (with his fellow economists Ajay Agrawal and Joshua Gans) of an excellent new book, "Power and Prediction: The Disruptive Economics of Artificial Intelligence".In their chat, Avi and Cardiff discuss:Why AI is best understood as a "prediction technology"Examples of AI already in useWhich parts of the economy could be transformed by AI, and howHistorical analogies to previous eras of widespread technological disruptionHow AI will change the way people and companies make decisionsWhy this change will shift institutions away from blunt rules and towards individual discretionIn the labor market, who will gain and who will lose from the adoption of AIWhat the use of AI might teach us about what it means to be humanAnd all throughout the chat, they look at the fundamental question of whether artificial intelligence is about to make the economy—and the world—a whole lot weirder. And if so, just how far along that path to weirdness are we already?Related links: "Prediction and Power", by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb"The impact of AI on the future of workforces", The White House CEA and the European Commission“Before the Flood”, by Sam Hammond"The golden age of AI-generated art is here", by Tom Faber"Historical analogies for large language models", by Dynomight Internet Website Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a special, between-the-seasons episode of the New Bazaar.Right now, the white-to-black wealth ratio in the United States is roughly 6 to 1. Which means that when you add up all the wealth that someone can own—their cash, the value of their house, their investments in the stock market, and so on—the average White American has six times the wealth of the average Black American. That figure alone should be disturbing enough. But making it even worse is that this wealth ratio of 6 to 1 is about the same as it was back in the 1950s, seven decades ago. Some of the reasons for this long-term persistence of a big racial wealth gap are probably familiar to anyone who knows even just a little about American history. Not just the history of slavery, but also what came next: Jim Crow and segregation, the numerous racist laws and policies that were passed, and the history of racial violence—all of which made it impossible for Black Americans to accumulate as much wealth, and to get the same return on their wealth, as White Americans. Maybe less understood is another cause. If you consider the immediate aftermath of emancipation and the Civil War as a starting point, Black Americans simply began with much less wealth from which to build more wealth—and that initial difference has continued to have a big lingering effect even a century and a half later. These are just some of the conclusions in a new working paper from today’s guest, Ellora Derenoncourt, and from her co-authors Chi Hyun Kim, Moritz Kuhn, Moritz Schularick. Ellora is an economist at Princeton University, where she is also founder of the Program for Research on Inequality. On this episode of New Bazaar, Cardiff speaks with Ellora about this fascinating paper and about some of her other related work. Related links: Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860-2020Can You Move to Opportunity? Evidence from the Great MigrationMinimum wages and racial inequality Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the 50th (!) episode of The New Bazaar, and the Season 1 Finale. Cardiff and Aimee are planning to launch Season 2 later in the fall, and even before then will be airing a few surprise bonus episodes in September and October. Cardiff shares a bit more about future plans at the end of today's episode. The final Season 1 guest is Stefanie Stantcheva. Stefanie is an economist at Harvard, where she also leads the Social Economics Lab, which uses large and carefully designed online surveys to better understand what the public thinks about a range of economic policies and topics. On this episode, Stefanie shares some of the lab’s most recent work on what people think about four specific issues: 1) open trade between countries, 2) inequality, and where people rank by income within their country or economic sector, 3) racial economic disparities, and 4) climate change. Stefanie also tells us how people are divided on some of these issues, for example by partisanship or by class; how they form their views; what they get right and wrong, and why; and how occasionally some people even change their minds when presented with new information. An illuminating, fun, and hopeful chat. Related links:Social Economics Lab homepage Stefanie Stantcheva homepage Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Benjamin Friedman is an economist and the author of The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth (2005) and Religion and the Rise of Capitalism (2021). He joins Cardiff to revisit the ideas in Moral Consequences, one of Cardiff’s favorite economics books, which argues that sustained economic growth not only leads to higher living standards but also can make a society more virtuous. They also talk about all that’s happened in the time since the book was published, the events that confirm or complicate its arguments, and the relationship between economic growth and issues like inequality, social mobility, and the environment.Finally, Ben shares with Cardiff the main themes in Religion and the Rise of Capitalism—and why our thinking about the economy remains influenced by religious schisms that date all the way back to the 16th and 17th centuries. Related links: The Moral Consequences of Economic GrowthReligion and the Rise of Capitalism Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Dakin Campbell is the chief finance correspondent at Insider and, full disclosure, Cardiff's close friend. He joins Cardiff on the show to discuss his new book, “Going Public: How Silicon Valley Rebels Loosened Wall Street’s Grip on the IPO and Sparked a Revolution”.When a company is relatively young… let’s say it’s a startup, and it is privately owned… the owners are usually some combination of the company’s founders, and venture capitalists who bet on the company, and maybe early employees who get paid in shares of the company as opposed to just getting a salary. And at some point, a private company like this can decide to go public. In other words, to list on the stock market so that you and I and anybody can buy and sell its stock. And so that the company itself can raise money to fund itself, and to give those founders and employees with early shares a place to sell them and cash in. When a private company wants to raise new money and give its existing shareholders a place to sell their shares, it can hire investment banks to start the process of going public and listing on a stock exchange. That process, of course, is the IPO, or initial public offering. Dakin’s book is about how a lot of private companies through the years have not loved the way that process works. These companies have often been skeptical that the IPO process works as well for them as for the investment banks that they themselves hire. And yet, the traditional IPO model also did not change meaningfully for decades, at least not for the biggest and most prominent companies trying to go public. There were occasional one-off attempts to challenge the model, as when Google went public via auction in 2004. But it wasn’t until just about four years ago that a company, Spotify, not only tried a different model but also kicked off a new trend—one that’s still early, but which seems like it’s here to stay. And as you’ll hear in the chat, Dakin’s book is also about why getting this process right matters not just for the companies that want to go public and for Wall Street, but also for people who want a chance to participate financially in the economy.Related links: "Going Public" book pageDakin Campbell stories at Insider Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Here are three things to know about inflation. First, according to a survey of public opinion by Pew Research taken in May, the public views inflation is the single biggest problem facing the country. And—this is a direct quote from Pew Research—”no other concern comes close”. Second, inflation right now is really high. The prices of the goods and services that people buy are more than 9 percent higher than they were last year. And third, Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve—the frontline institution tasked with managing inflation—recently said this while speaking on a panel: “I think we now understand better how little we understand about inflation.”Even for the people in charge of dealing with it, inflation can be really hard to understand. When inflation is high, is it the Fed’s fault? Is it the fault of Congress and the President? Is it Vladimir Putin’s fault? Is it greedy corporations? Is it nobody’s fault, just a thing that happens?Matt Klein returns to explain the sources of this bafflement, this confusion. In his newsletter The Overshoot, he recently finished a two-part series about inflation that tries to understand what’s going on—and which crucially leaves room for all possible, complex, interacting forces that can drive inflation. Matt and Cardiff also discuss how inflation fits into the wider economic context of the last couple of years. And then, to close, they recklessly ask the question: Is inflation finally about to start coming down? Related links: Matt's inflation seriesMatt on Twitter Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Cardiff and Aimee answer your questions about markets, the economy, the first season of the podcast and our company, Bazaar Audio. Go to bazaaraudio.com to find the full list of recommended links from the episode.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This episode is all about remote wok. (Or as it is also sometimes known, telework, or telecommuting, or just working from home.)The trend towards remote work has accelerated a lot during the Covid pandemic, as is clear in the data. What we don’t yet know is how much of the trend will last. And if it does last, what kind of economic and societal consequences will it have? What might be its effects on things like how we design our homes, and even our neighborhoods? What will happen to the downtowns of big cities, if their offices stay empty? What will it mean for how people get evaluated and promoted at work. Today’s guest is economist Adam Ozimek, the chief economist of the Economic Innovation Group. Adam has done some of the most detailed and original analysis on remote work in recent years—not just chronicling the trend right now, but also looking at how it might conceivably change our lives in the long run. Related links: Adam's personal websiteEconomic Innovation GroupFollow Adam on Twitter Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As a young man in his native Benin, Leonard Wantchekon was arrested for leading a student uprising against the repressive government, tortured in prison, and 18 months later escaped from prison into Nigeria. Nearly four decades later, he is now a Princeton economist and the founder of the African School of Economics. But the experiences and observations from his astonishing early life embedded themselves into his work in economics—not just his research, but his mission to educate a new generation of African economists. Leonard speaks with Cardiff about those formative events, and then they discuss the following research papers published by Leonard: — “Education and Human Capital Externalities: Evidence from Colonial Benin” [Co-authored with Marko Klasˇnja and Natalija Novta] — “The Curse of Good Soil? Land Fertility, Roads, and Rural Poverty in Africa” [Co-authored with Piero Stanig] — “The Slave Trade and the Origins of Mistrust in Africa” [Co-authored with Nathan Nunn]And they also discuss Leonard's goals as founder of The African School of Economics, and why it's so important for African students economists to be taken more seriously inside the economics profession. Related links: Leonard Wantchekon page at Princeton IMF profileEconomist profile Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Skanda Amarnath is the executive director of Employ America, an organization that advocates for strong labor markets. He recently published a research note titled "What Are You Expecting? How The Fed Slows Down Inflation Through The Labor Market", in which he and co-author Alex Williams explores how the Federal Reserve's tools work to influence employment outcomes and the prices of goods and services. Skanda joins Cardiff to discuss: — The definition of full employment — How to investigate all the competing theories for what really causes inflation — The specific channels through which monetary policy affects inflation — What the Fed should do now to combat high inflation in the US — What Skanda has learned about monetary policymaking in the pandemic eraRelated links: Skanda's Twitter feed Employ America main site"What Are You Expecting? How The Fed Slows Down Inflation Through The Labor Market" Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.