Forward Guidance

On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Felix Zulauf, a renowned macro investor known for his uncanny market timing, shares his outlook on various time horizons about stocks, bonds, and commodities. Zulauf explains why the reflationary types of trades might continue to sell-off over the near-term as economic conditions worsen, however restored liquidity conditions might in the second half of 2022 breathe new life in stocks and commodities. Zulauf shares his longer-term analysis on gold and currencies, and tells Jack Farley why he thinks that bond yields are in the process of bottoming.

Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the recent choppiness in stocks, commodities, and crypto. In conversation with Jack Farley, Muir shares: Why he is shorting Bitcoin and buying gold Why the bear market in speculative stocks (what he calls “crap”) will likely continue How secular inflation will accommodate value stocks but threaten growth stocks

Today’s guest, Alfonso Peccatiello, is a man with a rare insight into the macro forces driving the moves in markets which have perplexed many, but not all, investors. One such move is the recent flattening of the yield curve, which belies commonly-held views about the relationship between bond yields and inflation. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. But he has left the world of portfolio management behind him to focus full time on writing and thinking about macro. His analysis can be found on his newsletter, The Macro Compass.Alfonso shares with Blockworks’ Jack Farley the real reason why long-term bond yields have been falling. Among other topics, the pair discuss:- the global credit impulse turning negative- long-term structural forces (such as demographics & debt) - why quantitative easing (QE) isn’t inflationaryAlfonso Peccatiello’s Twitter: @MacroAlfJack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96Alfonso Peccatiello’s newsletter, The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/Article on quantitative easing: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/tmc-6-all-they-told-you-about-printingArticle on 2022 outlook: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/2022portfolio

With fund managers keen to lock in gains from a lucrative year, the “pain trade” is here, says Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman. Moreover, pie-in-the-sky technology companies are falling back to earth, threatening to bring the entire market down with them. Yet Kuppy remains bullish on risk assets because in his “Project Zimbabwe” framework wherein inflation runs rampant as central banks remain hopelessly behind the curve, going long is the way to go. Kuppy argues that oil futures are the assets that will benefit most from inflation because ESG (environmental, social, and governance) mandates will depress supply. Kuppy, the publisher of Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM), also shares several idiosyncratic trades ranging from Uranium to paper. Kuppy and Blockworks’ Jack Farley also discuss China, Robinhood, and United States Oil ETF ($USO).

The emergence of crypto funds and exchange traded products (ETPs) has changed the game - but just how much capital is flowing into crypto via these channels? James Butterfill, Investment Strategist at CoinShares, joins Jack Farley to shed light on the crypto fund flows that are serving as onramps for many institutional investors to Bitcoin, Ethereum, as well as Solana and Polkadot.

Listeners of the Forward Guidance podcast are in for a real treat today. Jack interviews noted economist and former central banker Dr. William White, who served on the front lines of monetary policy for over half a decade. White, a stern critic of the easy money policy that preceded the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, argues that ultra-low interest rates threatens financial stability and creates a bevy of unintended consequences such as flash crashes, overvalued asset prices, and abrupt illiquidity. Dr. White shares his views on whether the U.S dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency is sustainable, and why bond yields remain low in face of the red-hot inflation that has descended on so many countries. Lastly, Dr. White makes the case that these economic woes are but one of the major four challenges world faces, with the other three "Four Horsemen" being in the spheres of politics, public health, and the environment.

With inflation running hot around the globe, many investors are looking to hedge against inflation. But is that the right goal?On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley speaks to James Davolos, portfolio manager at the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL), a fund that which, as the name suggests, aims to invest in stocks that benefit from inflation. Davolos argues that inflation will increase the value of scalable, economically resilient business models with exposure to hard assets, and he shares several examples, ranging from gold royalty companies and financial exchanges to timber companies and agricultural processing firms.

When Jack Farley ran into macro investor Michael Nicoletos at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in London, he knew the two had to film an interview. Nicoletos shares his thoughts on crypto’s role within a macro portfolio, why the U.S. dollar is rising against other currencies, and why the 40-year bull market in bonds might not yet be over. Nicoletos argues that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will eventually replace stablecoins as an onramp to crypto, and argues that China economic woes are very serious.Blockworks next crypto event in May 2021: https://blockworks.co/events/permissionless/Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96Michael Nicoletos’ Twitter: @mnicoletos

We're heading for an inflationary decade that will change society as we know it. That's according to Vincent Deluard, director of global macro research at StoneX Group Inc, who argues inflation is not transitory as many insist but rather a feature of the new economic landscape that investors must prepare for. On the seventh episode of Forward Guidance, Deluard gives Blockworks' Jack Farley 5 reasons why high prices are no longer the cure to high prices, including today's tight labor market, the flurry of post-Covid spending packages, and China's withdrawal from its role as an exporter of deflation. Deluard argues that inflation itself is inflationary; while soaring commodity prices, supply chains bottlenecks, and excessive stimulus are undoubtedly the immediate drivers of the current spike in prices, the fundamental driver of secular inflation is an insidious increase in our collective preference for the present.

Tobias Carlisle, Portfolio Manager at Acquirers’ Funds, joins Jack Farley on this sixth episode of Forward Guidance to explain why he believes quality companies are being serially undervalued. Carlisle argues that the equity market assigns far too high of a value on fast-growing stocks, and far too-little of a value on companies whose revenues are growing slowly but whose return on capital is very high and whose balance sheets are pristine. Carlisle shares with Farley the methodology and structure of of his value funds, The Acquirers’ Fund ($ZIG) and the Roundhill Acquirers Deep Value ETF ($DEEP), and he shares his vision for the future of value investing.